They Can Win Out and Be Left Out

That thud you just heard was the bowl championship series door slamming in the Left (Out) Coast conference’s face ... again.

This is the fifth year a rankings system will be used to determine the national title-game participants and the fifth year the Pacific 10 champion will not (likely) get an invite.

This would be another gut punch for a conference some indexes rate as the nation’s toughest, but welcome to Reality BCS TV.

Oregon is the Pac-10’s lone unbeaten team, one of 10 undefeated teams in Division I-A, but Oregon has a problem.

Last year, with one defeat, the Ducks finished the regular season No. 2 in both national polls but lost the BCS computer points war, finishing fourth behind Miami, Nebraska and Colorado.

Instead of playing Miami for the national title in the Rose Bowl, Oregon beat Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl.

The goal is to get back to the Fiesta Bowl, which plays host to this year’s BCS national championship.

Without a ton of help, though, we don’t see how 12-0 Oregon gets there.

In 2001, Oregon was felled by the margin-of-victory component in the BCS system, a perceived wrong that prompted BCS commissioners to demand that that component be removed as a condition of remaining in the system.

This year, Oregon’s problem is going to be strength of schedule.

And, the kicker is, this may all be Michigan’s fault.

Say what?

Oregon was supposed to play at Michigan on Sept. 21, but the Wolverines asked to defer the game to 2007 because Michigan was already playing two tough nonconference teams, Washington and Notre Dame.

Oregon agreed, and replaced Michigan with a home game against Portland State, a Division

I-AA team.

A win at Michigan, of course, would have done wonders for Oregon’s national portfolio.

As it stands, the Ducks are 6-0 without having defeated a team currently ranked in either the writers’ or coaches’ poll.

Oregon is in decent shape in three of the four BCS departments. The Ducks have a No. 6 poll average and a 7.4 average in six of the seven BCS computer rankings in operation (Peter Wolfe’s first rankings release will coincide with the unveiling of Monday’s first BCS standings).

Oregon has no losses -- each defeat costs a team one point in the BCS -- but figures to take a hit in the strength-of-schedule component.

In this week’s Sagarin ratings, for example, Oregon ranks No. 81.

Oregon’s standing will improve as it faces tougher opponents -- Washington, Washington State, USC -- but by how much?

Oregon Coach Mike Bellotti had hoped the Pac-10’s stellar reputation would overcome the nonconference issue, but it may not be enough.

“If we were to run the table and not get there, yeah, it would be pretty tough,” Bellotti said this week.

Bellotti also cautioned that it’s too early to be concerned.

“We’ll have to see how the whole thing shakes out,” he said. “We’re at the halfway point of the season, a lot of things can happen.”

If Oregon continues to win, the school is going to need a lot of things to happen.

If the Ducks end up as one of three, four or possibly five unbeaten teams, they are going to get aced out.

To have a realistic Fiesta Bowl shot, Oregon needs at least four of the five teams ranked ahead of it -- Miami, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Ohio State -- to lose, not to mention No. 7 Notre Dame.

Should Oregon and Notre Dame remain undefeated through the weekend, the Irish are a cinch to be ranked higher than the Ducks in Monday’s first BCS standings.

The irony is that a 12-0 Oregon, perhaps eliminated from national title contention for not having played Michigan, would end up in the Rose Bowl, where it might play ... Michigan.

Pac Bits

You wonder how conference coaches keep their defensive coordinators from sharp objects. Seven Pac-10 schools are averaging 33.4 points a game or better, led by California’s league-leading 38.7. What’s more, six conference quarterbacks rank among the top 15 nationally in pass efficiency. Yet, many weeks, giving up 30 points on defense is enough to get you a win, not fired. In the Pac-10, you have to put everything in context. “I think you have to walk a fine line,” Arizona State Coach Dirk Koetter said. “My defensive coaches, they don’t want to hear that, they don’t want to hear me say, ‘Hey, just keep them under 30.’ ” Arizona State didn’t have that problem last week, giving up three field goals in a 13-9 victory over Oregon State. That game was an exception, though. “I wouldn’t want to be a secondary coach in our league,” Washington State Coach Mike Price said.

Further proof that defense doesn’t necessarily win championships: Washington State leads the Pac-10 with a 3-0 record and ranks sixth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense. USC, which will effectively be eliminated from the conference race if it loses to Washington on Saturday, continues to lead the Pac-10 in total defense.

Looking way ahead (but that’s what we do): If Ohio State finishes undefeated and advances to play for the national title in the Fiesta Bowl, the Rose Bowl does not have to take another Big Ten school to match against the Pac-10 champion. The Rose Bowl would have the option of choosing any BCS-qualified team, and would do cartwheels down Colorado Boulevard if that team was Notre Dame. The Irish last appeared in Pasadena in 1925, Knute Rockne’s Irish defeating Pop Warner-led Stanford, 27-10.