WEST CAPSULES IN PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

By Mark Heisler

Oct. 28, 2002 12 AM PT

LAKERS

2001-02 record: 58-24, third.

Offense: 101.3 (3) Defense: 94.1 (9, tie).

Gone: Lindsey Hunter, Mitch Richmond, Jelani McCoy.

Arriving: No. 1 pick Kareem Rush, Tracy Murray.

Outlook: The only questions these days are Shaquille O’Neal’s health, weight and state of mind. Last season, he was hurt, overweight and didn’t get his head straight until the middle of the West finals. After that, he devoured all comers. His feet remain a concern, sidelining him and all but ruling out a fast start, but happily for the Lakers, he looks trimmer and happier. The challenge isn’t as much actual as spiritual: They have to show they can still bring it for an entire season. After they routed the Spurs in the 2001 West finals, the Lakers pooh-poohed the importance of home-court advantage until seeing how much fun it was to play Game 7 in Sacramento.

Prediction: They’ll struggle without O’Neal but look for an earlier wakeup call, by about six months.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

2001-02 record: 61-21, first.

Offense: 104.6 (2) Defense: 97.0 (19).

Gone: No one of note.

Arriving: Keon Clark.

Outlook: Not that their ascent has left them dizzy but ... 70 wins? That’s what Mike Bibby predicted -- not long before hurting his right foot and having the surgery that will keep him out until December. Yes, talking trash has it perils and is best left to the Lakers, who have more practice. Bibby’s amazing rise last spring, after four merely nice seasons, means they’re full-fledged rivals, no longer limited by Chris Webber’s weaknesses. Nevertheless, there’s still a difference, however diminished, between the Kings, who have depth, and the Lakers, who have superstars. The 6-11 Clark was another nice pickup by General Manager Geoff Petrie but at 225 pounds, Clark will join the gang helping out on Shaq, rather than play him one-on-one.

Prediction: On the other hand, as the Lakers learned just in time, the Lakers’ B game won’t do any more.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

2001-02 record: 58-24, second.

Offense: 96.7 (10). Defense: 90.5 (3).

Gone: Antonio Daniels, Terry Porter, Charles Smith, Cherokee Parks.

Arriving: Emanuel Ginobili, Speedy Claxton, Kevin Willis, Steve Kerr, Erick Barkley, Mengke Bateer.

Outlook: David Robinson will retire after this season, officially, although some say he did that three years ago. The Admiral had been getting off to ever slower starts in his tricky new role as Tim Duncan’s helper. Nevertheless, Robinson would come on in the stretch. If he hadn’t hurt his back last spring, these battlers, who scared the Lakers, would have been even more trouble. But the team is still in transition, with 20-year-old point guard Tony Parker alongside this year’s hope, Argentine shooting guard Manu (the Man) Ginobili, who was a star in Italy. By the time their backcourt is ready, Robinson may be retired in fact, as well as theory.

Prediction: They have as much talent as anyone, but much of it just got there or is on its way out.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

2001-02 record: 57-25, fourth.

Offense: 105.2 (1). Defense: 101.0 (28).

Gone: Greg Buckner.

Arriving: Popeye Jones, Raja Bell.

Outlook: People wondered if they were real or just real entertaining until Sacramento exposed them in a 4-1 second-round termination. The Mavericks weren’t big enough. Even wunderkind Dirk Nowitzki turned out to have holes in his high-scoring game. It’s unfair to critique his defense since none of them play any. By the Mavericks’ own reckoning, of the Kings’ 207 field goals, an astounding/depressing 115 were on layups or dunks, including two unchallenged drives to the hoop by the pint-sized Mike Bibby that tied the pivotal Game 4 in regulation and won it in overtime. On the positive side, it’s fun watching owner Mark Cuban, who rode Coach Don Nelson’s coattails this far, thrash around.

Prediction: Now they say the answer is ... Shawn Bradley? Unless they do a mind meld on him, they’d better come up with something better than that.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

2001-02 record: 49-33, sixth.

Offense: 96.6 (11). Defense: 93.7 (8).

Gone: Shawn Kemp, Steve Kerr, Erick Barkley.

Arriving: Arvydas Sabonis, Antonio Daniels, Jeff McInnis, Charles Smith, No. 1 pick Qyntel Woods.

Outlook: Sabonis’ retirement turned them from a big, deep team to an ordinary-size one, but he’s back. Unfortunately, Sabonis is about to turn 38 and lost his mobility when his Achilles’ tendons went -- in his early 20s -- so let’s not pencil them back in at their old level. Adding to Coach Maurice Cheeks’ challenges, General Manager Bob Whitsitt created another logjam at point, adding McInnis and Daniels to Damon Stoudamire, to go with their excess bodies at the big guard and small forward positions.

Prediction: They’re still a long night’s work, assuming Cheeks can keep them from killing each other.

UTAH JAZZ

2001-02 record: 44-38, eighth.

Offense: 96.0 (14). Defense: 95.1 (13).

Gone: Bryon Russell, Donyell Marshall.

Arriving: Matt Harpring, Mark Jackson, Calbert Cheaney.

Outlook: Coach Jerry Sloan almost lost his mind coaching eight free agents, not to mention a balky Karl Malone, who picked a bad time -- the start of last season -- to review his career options anew. The Jazz started 6-11, posted its worst record in 15 years, squeezed into the playoffs at No. 8 and fell, 3-1, to the Kings, who won twice in the Delta Center, after which management waved bye-bye to Marshall and Russell. However, having rebuilt continuously around Malone and John Stockton, they know the drill. Andre Kirilenko and Jarron Collins helped last season. A better attitude would be handy. They don’t have any years to waste.

Prediction: Oops, Malone is back negotiating in the papers, musing he may retire if the Jazz doesn’t extend him, etc. Of course, by now, they all know that drill too.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

2001-02 record: 50-32, fifth.

Offense: 99.3 (5). Defense: 96.0 (16).

Gone: Sam Mitchell, Chauncey Billups.

Arriving: Troy Hudson, Kendall Gill.

Outlook: The honeymoon’s way over in Minneapolis, which was once happy to cheer a .500 team with a star who wasn’t looking to bail, a la Stephon Marbury, but turned up its nose when the Timberwolves, who won 50-47-50 the last three seasons without a starting-caliber center, failed to get out of the first round again. On the other hand, last season now looks like the good old days. Terrell Brandon, who missed 50 games, isn’t back. Billups, his backup, left. Anthony Peeler, upset about his contract, was fined for missing an exhibition. Management stalled Wally Szczerbiak, a legend in own his mind, who wanted a maximum extension. Felipe Lopez was lost for the season.

Prediction: The big question: Will Kevin Garnett, upcoming free agent, stay, and if he does, as he promises to, why?

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS

2001-02 record: 45-37, seventh.

Offense: 97.7 (6). Defense: 94.7 (12).

Gone: Vin Baker, Shammond Williams, Earl Watson, Olumiji Oyedeji.

Arriving: Kenny Anderson, Vitaly Potapenko, Joseph Forte.

Outlook: Howard Schultz, who gave you the $3 cup of coffee you have to learn a foreign language to order, is trying to breathe life into the SuperSonics as he did with Starbucks but it isn’t easy. He unloaded the untradable Baker (thank you, Celtics) but still has a problem with his 34-year-old franchise player, Gary Payton, an upcoming free agent who’s unhappy about Schultz’s pointed refusal to offer him an extension. Everyone knows Schultz wants Jason Kidd, including Kidd’s pal ... Payton. Tell-it-like-it-is Coach Nate McMillan booted them into the playoffs but they’re not happy campers.

Prediction: Payton’s always mad anyway, giving him an edge over the seven Clippers, who are upset about their contract situations.

CLIPPERS

2001-02 record: 39-43, ninth.

Offense: 95.7 (15). Defense: 96.1 (17).

Gone: Darius Miles, Jeff McInnis, Obinna Ekezie.

Arriving: Andre Miller, Bryant Stith, Cherokee Parks, No. 1 picks Chris Wilcox and Melvin Ely.

Outlook: Even with injuries and a slow start, they’re good enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, their ancient enemy has arisen again to spread confusion among them. Yes, Donald T. Sterling. Failing to realize that this group was truly different -- not to mention highly profitable -- he didn’t re-sign Michael Olowokandi, his coming young center; Miller, the widely-admired point guard for whom he traded Miles; and Elton Brand, beloved by all who know him. Now all their young players wonder about their future here. Between those who can walk in ’03 (Olowokandi), ’04 (Brand, Miller, Lamar Odom, Corey Maggette) and ’05 (Quentin Richardson, Keyon Dooling), there’s your nucleus.

Prediction: Synchronize watches. Looks as if we’re counting down to the usual scenario.

PHOENIX SUNS

2001-02 record: 36-46, 10th.

Offense: 95.1 (17). Defense: 95.8 (15).

Gone: No one of note.

Arriving: No. 1 picks Amare Stoudemire and Casey Jacobsen, Scott Williams.

Outlook: Alarmed by the Suns’ decline and run-ins with the law, owner Jerry Colangelo traded Jason Kidd for Stephon Marbury, turning two franchises around. With the hard-headed Marbury and oft-injured Penny Hardaway and Tom Gugliotta, the Suns now have $35 million in annual salary worth of problems. Tunneling out, they have since traded Rodney Rogers for promising Joe Johnson, re-signed Shawn Marion and drafted the high-bounding, 6-foot-8 1/2, 235-pound prep Stoudemire.

Prediction: This season depends on chilling out Marbury. The future depends on finding new homes for the $35 Mill Trio.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

2001-02 record: 28-54, 11th.

Offense: 92.3 (22). Defense: 97.2 (20).

Gone: Kevin Willis.

Arriving: No. 1 picks Yao Ming and Bostjan Nachbar.

Outlook: Owner Les Alexander, hyperventilating since they went into the lottery with the fifth-worst record and came out with the 7-foot-5 Yao, says this could be “one of the great teams in history.” Maybe he means one of the best teams he has owned but this won’t even be that. Yao didn’t arrive until last week and within a few minutes in his first exhibition, committed a lane violation on a free throw, had a rebound taken out of his hands by Emanuel Ginobili and a shot blocked by David Robinson. On the other hand, Yao is surely better than the other tall geeks he has been compared to (Manute Bol?) Nevertheless, it’ll take him two or three seasons -- not months -- to adjust to the faster, rougher NBA.

Prediction: Despite the hype when he faces Shaq or Tim Duncan, this isn’t even Chapter One of the Yao Saga, just the Introduction.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

2001-02 record: 23-59, 13th.

Offense: 89.9 (27). Defense: 97.3 (21).

Gone: No one of note.

Arriving: President Jerry West, No. 1 pick Drew Gooden, Wesley Person, Earl Watson.

Outlook: Be careful what you wish for, you might get it. West, the Laker icon who went into the front office and helped assembled not one, but two dynasties, starts over with a team of kids that has never won more than 23 games. On the other hand, he’s Jerry West and the kids are good. The 7-foot Pao Gasol, a revelation as a rookie, came back 10 pounds heavier at 220. West thinks he may eventually weigh 250-plus and play center. West’s first draft pick, Gooden, averaged 18 points in exhibitions, looking like another hot rookie. However, Lorenzen Wright, a power forward, plays center, a problem in this conference, and West has to chill out Jason Williams, whose head has repelled all comers.

Prediction: They’ll win more than 23. May shock the world and win 30-35.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

2001-02 record: 21-61, 14th.

Offense: 97.7 (7). Defense: 103.1 (29).

Gone: Coaches Dave Cowens and Brian Winters, Larry Hughes.

Arriving: Coach Eric Musselman, No. 1 picks Mike Dunleavy and Jiri Welsch.

Outlook: Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. Those words, inscribed above the gates of Hell in Dante’s “Divine Comedy,” belong on the Warrior logo too, after a free fall dating all the way back to Don Nelson trading Chris Webber ... nine years ago. Shallow-pockets owner Chris Cohan and overdue-for-termination General Manager Garry St. Jean make bad choices. Coaches are overmatched. Players don’t always/often compete. Musselman, son of a coach (Bill), was a sharp young assistant. If Musselman can get these guys to play, he will have accomplished something no Warrior coach has in years.

Prediction: Of course, they’ll help bring up the rear in any event.

DENVER NUGGETS

2001-02 record: 27-55, 12th.

Offense: 92.2 (23). Defense: 98.0 (24).

Gone: Coaches Dan Issel and Mike Evans, Antonio McDyess, Scott Williams, George McCloud, Calbert Cheaney, Mengke Batteer.

Arriving: Coach Jeff Bzdelik, No. 1 picks Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Nene Hilario, Marcus Camby, Chris Whitney, Rodney White.

Outlook: People wondered if rookie General Manager Kiki Vandeweghe was too nice to succeed in the black hole that swallowed so many but his draft day moves to get the 19-year-old Tskitishvili (pronounced SKEET-tzish-vee-lee) and the 20-year-old Hilario, showed he had a plan: Go with kids, save salary cap money, try to sign a big free agent. If they luck into next spring’s first pick -- and prep phenom LeBron James -- all the better. Nor is Vandeweghe bringing in a point guard, letting young Kenny Satterfield battle Junior Harrington for the job.

Prediction: Not that you’ll be able to tell soon but they could have a future.

NBA Calendar

Jan. 6 ... 10-day contracts can be signed

Jan. 10 ... All player contracts guaranteed for the remainder of the season

Feb. 9 ... All-Star game at Atlanta

Feb. 20 ... Trading deadline

April 9-12 ... Portsmouth (Va.) Invitational tournament

April 16 ... Regular season ends

April 19 ... Playoffs begin

May 11 ... Early entry eligibility deadline for the draft

June 4 ... NBA Finals begin

June 3-6 ... Pre-draft camp, Chicago