The Gloves Come Off

Fernando Vargas, formerly an admirer of Oscar De La Hoya, speaks often about an incident several years ago that turned him against the older fighter. But Vargas has refused in recent weeks to elaborate and De La Hoya says he doesn’t recall anything occurring between them that would have inspired such venom. Vargas says he will remind De La Hoya tonight.

“I’m going to tell him about it in the ring,” Vargas says. “We’ll see if he’s man enough to remember it.”

If it happens, it will provide drama to what otherwise could be a disappointing fight. (More on that later.) It also is indicative of why Vargas will lose. He is all about drama, an emotional and passionate fighter so fixated on his dislike for De La Hoya that he will forget when he enters the ring that this sport, at this 154-pound super-welterweight level, rewards the cold, dispassionate tactician, like De La Hoya.

In a street fight, I’d like Vargas. This is not a street fight.

De La Hoya will win a unanimous decision.

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He could even win it sooner. In one of the restaurants in the lobby of the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, which is playing host to the fight in its events center, a two-day tribute to boxing began Thursday with a replay of the second Sugar Ray Leonard-Roberto Duran fight. A similar scenario could unfold tonight, with De La Hoya in the role of Leonard.

I don’t envision Vargas quitting, a la Duran’s “no mas” concession, but he could become so frustrated by his inability to connect with his punches, much less inflict damage, that he would leave himself open for De La Hoya’s quick and precise strikes. Vargas’ chin, as revealed when he went down five times in a loss to Felix Trinidad, is suspect.

It also is possible that De La Hoya has regained his knockout punch. Conventional wisdom holds that he lost much of his power when he began moving up in weight classes. Although he has 27 knockouts in 36 fights--his record is 34-2--five of the seven fights he has had since 1999 have gone at least 11 rounds.

But there were mitigating circumstances. One is that the quality of his opponents, fighters such as Trinidad, Ike Quartey and Shane Mosley, has been better. The other is that De La Hoya injured his left wrist against Oba Carr in 1999 and hasn’t had the same potency in his left hand, his more dangerous hand, since.

In the first test for him since wrist surgery in December, perhaps he will be less tentative with the left than he has been.

But even if that is not the case, he might be an even better boxer than he was before the injury because his new trainer, Floyd Mayweather Sr., has focused on developing the right hand. He and De La Hoya believe it has become a legitimate weapon.

Mayweather also has worked with De La Hoya on moving from side to side instead of back, a defensive tactic that, although effective in avoiding punches, made it appear to critics as if he lacked courage.

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In fact, De La Hoya, like Muhammad Ali and Leonard in their primes, is smart enough to know that the fewer times you get hit, the more often you win.

“In my mind, I can bang with him,” De La Hoya, 29, said this week of Vargas. “But it’s not necessary.”

De La Hoya acknowledges that Vargas, 24, has an edge in strength. Although both weighed in Friday at 154, Vargas will enter the ring at least 10 pounds heavier than that. The more slightly built De La Hoya will add no more than six pounds.

But De La Hoya has turned that into a psychological advantage.

“He’s going to be stronger, yes,” he said. “But when you fight a strong guy, it is much easier. It makes you more aware that you have to get out of the way of the punches. That’s what happened with Trinidad. He was a hard puncher. It made me move more. I boxed him too much, but it was an easy fight.”

It’s also a fight he lost because he ran the last three rounds.

“We thought we had the fight in the bag,” he said.

He says he will not make that mistake again, just as he will not make the mistake again of standing toe to toe and banging, as he did in the second fight against Julio Cesar Chavez. De La Hoya won in the eighth round, but he suffered needless punishment in what should have been an easy fight because he let his emotions get the best of him.

He always has been and always will be at his best as a counterpuncher. Mayweather couldn’t change that if he wanted. Vargas, despite his image as a brawler, is also more effective when he’s counterpunching.

If neither fighter forces the action, you might feel tonight that you’ve wasted your $49.95 on the pay-per-view telecast. Take some comfort in that you didn’t pay $1,200 to sit ringside.

But I’m guessing that Vargas, who is neither as smart nor as experienced as De La Hoya, will not be able to control his anger, once it is no longer pent up, and will lose his patience. Fools rush in. It perhaps will provide more entertainment but also a more decisive outcome. The promotion is called “Bad Blood,” but the smart money is on Sweet Science.

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Randy Harvey can be reached at randy.harvey@latimes.com.