BCS Picture Maintains Its Out-of-Focus Qualities

The B in BCS now officially stands for bedlam.

After a sequence of Saturday games that could have lasting repercussions in college football, the unthinkable may now unfold, as if scripted by a football gremlin advocating a playoff.

Saturday was so macadamia nuts that the participants in this year’s national title game could not be determined until the completion of Boise State at Hawaii in a late Saturday game.

Even then, we still can’t say who will play for the BCS national title in the Jan. 4 Sugar Bowl. We can say this:

No. 1 Oklahoma’s stunning 35-7 loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game threw the bowl championship series into potential disarray.

Considering the aftermath of the Sooners’ defeat and a series of other on-field outcomes, USC could vault to No. 1 in both the Associated Press writers’ and USA Today/ESPN coaches’ polls today and be denied a chance to play for the BCS national title in the Sugar Bowl.

For weeks, this has been dubbed the “doomsday scenario” in BCS circles, but no one really imagined it might happen.

The explanation: Oklahoma had such a commanding lead in the BCS standings that, despite Saturday’s loss, it might still remain No. 1 in the BCS.

Should Louisiana State somehow pass USC for the No. 2 BCS spot -- a distinct possibility after Boise State defeated Hawaii, 45-28 -- USC could be No. 1 and O-U-T of the Sugar Bowl.

“Somebody’s going to be upset, we just know it’s not going to be Oklahoma,” independent BCS analyst Jerry Palm said after surveying the chaos.

But that’s hardly the end of the story.

If USC doesn’t make the Sugar Bowl, it would play Michigan in the Rose Bowl and, with a victory, could claim the Associated Press national title.

And here’s the really, really bizarre part. USC could be No. 1 in the coaches’ poll but, by contract, the voting coaches are obligated to give their half of the national title to the BCS title-game winner.

How, you ask, could Oklahoma still be No. 1 in the BCS after a lopsided defeat?

Saturday’s defeat left the Sooners as one of three one-loss teams in contention along with USC and LSU.

Oklahoma entered the weekend with a BCS total of 2.06, which was 4.84 points better than No. 2 USC.

It figures Oklahoma will fall no lower than No. 3 in both polls because every other team in the BCS top 10 has two losses.

Then, the top BCS spot will come down to how it shakes out for Oklahoma in the computers. The consensus among BCS experts is that Oklahoma, a strong No. 1 in the computer component, will not fall far enough to knock the Sooners out of the Sugar Bowl.

This will mean that Oklahoma, a team that did not even win its own conference, will get a shot at the title.

“I’m not going to sit here and lobby our way into the ball game,” Sooner Coach Bob Stoops said after Saturday’s bitter defeat.

Apparently, he won’t have to.

If Oklahoma stays No. 1, it will leave USC and LSU still fighting it out for the BCS No. 2 spot.

In the complicated BCS formula, only the teams with the two lowest scores advance to the BCS championship.

How, you ask, could USC lose the 1.53 lead it held over LSU?

Both teams scored convincing wins Saturday but, in terms of BCS strength-of-schedule punch, LSU’s victory against No. 5 Georgia counts more than USC’s victory over unranked Oregon State.

USC was also dinged in the SOS component because Notre Dame lost to Syracuse, which only proves you should never count on rivals for anything.

Palm said Syracuse’s victory over Notre Dame could be enough to allow LSU to slip past USC in the BCS.

“Notre Dame really hurt them,” Palm said.

Nothing, though, is etched in BCS stone.

In fact, the race for the second BCS spot might come down to decimal points.

“It could be that small,” Palm said.

This would not be unprecedented.

In 2000, Florida State edged Miami out of the No. 2 spot by 0.34 points, while Nebraska earned a berth in the 2001 title-game by the margin of 0.05 over Colorado.

As Saturday night turned to Sunday morning, there was still a chance the Trojans could hold off LSU provided Hawaii scored an upset against Boise State.

“If Boise wins, I really don’t think they have much of a shot,” Palm said of USC’s chances.

USC could also knock LSU out if Oklahoma falls to only No. 2 in one or both of the subjective polls.

This would drive a BCS wedge between LSU and USC and allow the Trojans to prevail.

However, that prospect became less likely as Kansas State pulled away from Oklahoma.

With its victory, Kansas State earned an automatic BCS berth to the Fiesta Bowl.

Kansas State’s victory also knocked Texas, seemingly a dead-lock cinch to play in the Fiesta Bowl, out of a major bowl because, under BCS rules, a conference may not send more than two schools to BCS games.

If a Boise State victory over Hawaii is enough to send LSU to the Sugar Bowl to play Oklahoma, the Rose Bowl will be doing cartwheels.

The venerable bowl, which thought it was going to be deprived a Pac-10/Big Ten game for a third consecutive year, would then get a possible No. 1 USC vs. No. 4 Michigan matchup with at least a half-share of the national title at stake.

If USC plays Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, the Rose Bowl would match LSU vs. Michigan.

In fact, no one could deny Pasadena this game because, in this scenario, the Rose Bowl now gets the first pick among BCS-eligible schools.

If it’s Oklahoma-LSU in the Sugar Bowl, the other BCS games should look this way:

Rose: USC vs. Michigan

Fiesta: Kansas State-Florida State.

Orange: Miami-Ohio State.

Of course, all decisions must be finalized today, putting an end to maybe the wackiest college football regular season in history.