Estimates of Quake Loss Spiraling

As inspectors fanned across the historic business district of this Central Coast wine-making center Christmas Eve, city officials estimated damage from Monday’s deadly earthquake at more than $100 million in the downtown area alone -- about half of the total for all of San Luis Obispo County.

Still shaken from the 6.5-magnitude temblor and from two days of strong aftershocks, Paso Robles officials said Wednesday that it would take years to rebuild the century-old downtown that had become the vibrant commercial and cultural core of northern San Luis Obispo County over the last decade.

Based on early visual inspections of a six-by-nine-block downtown area just north of Paso Robles’ City Park and its new red brick Civic Center, the estimated $100-million loss represents damage -- from relatively minor to total destruction -- to 82 buildings and their contents, said City Manager Jim App.

“It’s a real quick and dirty number,” App said. “These estimates are based on industry standards” for damage after earthquakes. “And with older buildings, those standards may not hold, because you run into all sort of complications. So this number is going to get a lot bigger.”

Nearly two-thirds of the $100-million estimate represents loss of structural value, while one-third is an estimate of lost contents.

About a dozen old brick buildings in the downtown, including landmark structures constructed in the late 1800s, were apparently the most seriously damaged, App said. Two women were killed Monday while fleeing one of those buildings, when the quake caused the second floor and roof to collapse onto the street.

Not yet considered in the preliminary loss assessment, App said, are detailed evaluations done Tuesday and Wednesday and set to continue for at least another week. Inspectors have said that internal inspections have found much more structural damage than was first apparent.

Also not included in estimates are commercial buildings outside the city center, App said, and about three dozen homes whose owners have reported damage.

A team of Federal Emergency Management Agency and federal Small Business Administration officials is scheduled to begin an appraisal Friday of damage and offer assistance if San Luis Obispo County is declared a federal disaster area.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger began the process Tuesday while touring Paso Robles by declaring a state of emergency in the county.

Countywide, officials estimated Tuesday evening that damage had reached nearly $127 million, but analysts said that number was already much higher by Wednesday. For example, road damage countywide was estimated at $900,000 Tuesday but had reached $3.5 million by Wednesday afternoon.

“We realize that is low,” said Ron Alsop, spokesman for the county Office of Emergency Services. “We fully expect that it will be up to or exceeding $200 million in the next two or three days.”

In Paso Robles, a section of the downtown with 58 structures and more than 100 businesses is cordoned off and entry denied even to landlords and merchants until at least Friday afternoon because of concerns that buildings might collapse. For occupants of the most seriously damaged buildings, it could be weeks before they gain access, officials said.

By Wednesday afternoon, 25 of those 58 buildings had been “red-tagged,” which means they are not safe for entry even by emergency workers. Numerous other buildings outside the restricted-entry zone had also been red-tagged, officials said.

“It’s going to be a rough time,” Mayor Frank R. Mecham said Wednesday. “The business owners are looking at us wondering what to do to get their merchandise out.”

The city plans to set up tents in City Park to handle merchants’ requests, he said. In the meantime, the director of the county fairgrounds has offered to allow businesses to set up makeshift offices so they can resume operations as soon as possible, the mayor said.

Already, owners of some downtown businesses are vowing to rebuild, if possible.

Owner Kathy McIntire, who lived above the beauty salon she operated across Park Street from the collapsed clock tower building, said she thought her two-story, 100-year-old brick building rode out the quake pretty well.

“I’m just hoping the structure is OK,” she said. “So far I’ve lost my home. I hope I don’t lose my business.”

Karen Horzen, daughter of 80-year-old Mary Mastagni, who owns the heavily damaged clock tower building, said the family was talking with an architect and contacting structural engineers in San Francisco.

“We hope to rebuild,” said Horzen, descendant of a pioneer Paso Robles family that arrived from Italy in 1893. “That’s the landmark of the downtown.... Everybody cares about this downtown.”

Officials who guided restoration of the Paso Robles city center over the last 15 years said they were determined to do it again.

“We were in good shape,” said Bob Lata, community development director since 1986. “Now we’ve a lot of work to do. But I think it’s doable in two or three years, maybe less.”

Before Monday’s quake, there were no vacant downtown storefronts, he said, compared with 36 in the late 1980s before revitalization.

In recent years, government construction of the new Civic Center has been augmented by a new movie theater and 12 city-supported building restorations, he said. In addition, landlords have completed 40 or 45 facade improvements or reconstructions of their own, he said. There are 165 businesses in the downtown core, officials said.

“The important thing is not to lose the synergy of the downtown businesses,” Lata said. “People come here literally from all over the country. We have 80 wineries. And the downtown is a place where people come for wine-tasting, dinner and special events. We have four French restaurants in the downtown alone.”

The city’s downtown was considered such a model of reconstructed Americana that it was chosen by the governor’s office as California’s top main street for 2002, Lata said.

The quake damaged more than a dozen of the downtown’s most historically significant buildings, he said. But Lata said he thought the downtown could rebound.

“We’re in a stronger position to respond today than we were 15 years ago,” he said. “We really have a strong, cohesive downtown now, and I think we can repair the damage.”

But at two meetings of city officials with hundreds of local merchants this week, it became apparent that not all owners were convinced they could put their businesses together again.

“My business has been red-tagged, so I’m not real happy, “ said Art Bridge, owner of a 1921-vintage two-story brick building outside the immediate downtown area. “But the damage looks significant. There are big cracks in it. So at this point, I’m just taking it a day at a time.”