Congaree Aims to Buck Recent Gold Cup Trend

The win rate for favorites in the Hollywood Gold Cup has been much higher than it is in all races. In the first 63 runnings of the Gold Cup, 48% of the favorites have won, compared to an overall national rate of about 33%.

Lately, though, favorites in the Gold Cup have been tumbling on a regular basis. A favorite hasn’t won the Hollywood Park race since 1999, and only seven favorites have won in the last 20 years.

Congaree, who’s 8-5 on the morning line, will try to reverse that trend in today’s 64th running. The last three favorites to fall have been Milwaukee Brew, Captain Steve and General Challenge. Bob Baffert, who trains Congaree, also trained Captain Steve and General Challenge. Baffert was the trainer of the last favorite to win the Gold Cup -- Real Quiet in 1999.

Though California-based -- at Santa Anita -- Congaree has run only once at Hollywood Park, winning the Swaps there in 2001. Since the Swaps, for 3-year-olds, was first run in 1974, only Best Pal has won that stake and returned to take the Gold Cup. Best Pal’s Gold Cup win came in 1993, two years after he won the Swaps.

In today’s 30th running of the Swaps, Ten Most Wanted, the second-place finisher behind Empire Maker in the Belmont Stakes, will be favored. Ten Most Wanted’s trainer, Wally Dollase, hopes to use the Swaps as a prep for the Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 23.

Empire Maker and Funny Cide are also pointing for the Travers. Empire Maker is expected to run in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga on Aug. 3, the same day Funny Cide runs in the Haskell at Monmouth Park.