Election Offers Lessons for the Governor-Elect and Democrats Alike

On the Saturday before the election, Arnold Schwarzenegger held a rally in a fruit packing shed near Fresno. Several hundred attended, including a middle-aged man. “Why are you supporting this guy?” I asked.

“Because he’s not Gray Davis,” the fellow replied. “I’m more against Gray Davis than

I am for Arnold Schwarzenegger.”

Lesson No. 1 from the election: It was much more about recalling Gov. Davis than electing actor Schwarzenegger -- more about being “mad as hell” at Sacramento than being won over by a charismatic, entertaining mega-star.

Indeed, that’s what The Times exit poll found: Among Schwarzenegger’s supporters, 85% said “the most important reason” for voting was to recall Davis.

“He tapped into a rich vein of public anger and outrage,” observes a Schwarzenegger advisor, who asks not to be identified. “He can’t lose touch with that. He truly has to be a ‘people’s governor.’ You do that by not falling prey to the campaign contributors who have bought their way into the Capitol. He has to be able to say ‘no’ across the board.”

And keep focused on achieving fiscal, regulatory and political reform -- which will require Democratic help -- and resist Republican pressure to play party games.

The man I talked to at the rally was Mike Dozier, 47, the economic development director for Clovis, a Fresno suburb. A registered Democrat, Dozier said he couldn’t vote for Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a fellow Fresnan, because “I see him placating special interests.”

He added, “I don’t think Arnold will raise taxes.”

If he did, would that bother him? “Not necessarily. What bothers me more is legislation that drives jobs out of California.”

Such as mandatory health insurance. Paid family leave. Incomplete workers’ comp reform.

Lesson No. 2, for Schwarzenegger: Many businesspeople care more about regulatory relief -- fewer costly government mandates -- than tax relief. Or even tax hikes. Some I’ve talked to -- big and small -- would trade a sales tax increase for real workers’ comp reform.

So Mr. Governor-elect, don’t dig yourself any deeper into that no-tax hole.

In fact, local official Dozier seemed to be dreading Schwarzenegger’s promised repeal of the car tax hike. That would be a

$4-billion revenue hit, with the loss being absorbed by local governments. Sacramento could bail them out, but that’s unlikely unless another tax -- such as sales -- is raised as a substitute. Otherwise, $4 billion more in red ink would be dumped onto a projected $10-billion state deficit.

The car tax cut, Dozier said, “will kill cities and local government. Clovis will lose $4 million. That’s a lot of cops and firemen.”

Later at a rally in Pleasanton, at the Alameda County fairgrounds, I chatted with Jerry Mercola, 67, owner of an electronics manufacturing company. He’s a Republican conservative, and I asked how he’d react to a Schwarzenegger tax increase.

“Depends,” Mercola replied. “If it’s done in fixing the overall [fiscal] thing, that’s OK.”

Schwarzenegger’s loudest applause came when he denounced California’s workers’ comp system -- high employer costs, low worker benefits, fat middlemen.

Lesson No. 3, for Democratic legislators: They need to pare down the middlemen -- like those big contributors, workers’ comp attorneys -- and get the new governor and business execs off their politically injured backs.

Also that day, in Modesto, at a Schwarzenegger rally in a packed downtown plaza, a young woman stood to the side waving a “No Recall” sign. Next to her was a toddler napping in a small wagon. I asked this dedicated Democrat whether she thought Davis had a chance. “I don’t,” said Christina David, 23, a recent community college grad.

“He didn’t do much to defend himself. Didn’t really give people a reason to vote for him.”

Even Christina was mad at the governor for signing the bill “to give driver licenses to illegal aliens.” She complained about a lack of security safeguards.

A Times preelection poll found that 63% of likely voters disapproved of the bill, including 40% of Latinos.

On election day, only 55% of Latinos sided with Davis against the recall, the exit poll showed. Just 55% voted for Bustamante. Both men needed a lot more Latino backing.

Signing the driver’s license bill -- one year after vetoing a stronger version with background checks -- was a too-obvious act of ethnic pandering that didn’t impress Latinos but angered many Anglos.

Lesson No. 4, for Democrats: Latinos aren’t monolithic about illegal immigration. They’re split. While trying to rev up Latinos, Davis and Bustamante repulsed Anglos.

Democratic legislators should quickly pass a new, compromise driver’s license bill with tough background checks. Schwarzenegger should gratefully sign it, ridding himself of an emotional wedge issue so he can focus on what recall voters have demanded: fiscal, regulatory and political reform.