Coming back for seconds

When exactly did the industry whispers begin? Did they wait until newcomer Alicia Keys climbed into her limousine after the 44th Annual Grammys with five trophies in tow? Or maybe they started even earlier on that February 2002 night, with audience members debating the singer’s future even as she giddily accepted the award for song of the year.

Can she do it again? Is she for real? You can argue that art should not be handicapped like a horse race, but in pop music they measure success by chart position and in the cynical business every new success is considered a one-hit wonder until proved otherwise.

“After any breakthrough, the skeptics come out and wonder if the artist can repeat it,” says J Records chief Clive Davis, who discovered Keys (as well as Aretha Franklin, Santana, Janis Joplin and a host of others). “The questions go with the first success, they always have and it is expected. But she will prove herself because she is a true artist, an artiste.”

The challenge is this simple: You made magic once, now do it again. Others facing that challenge this season include John Mayer, the Strokes, Dido, Nelly Furtado and Josh Groban. Keys, coming off the once-in-a-lifetime Grammy night 17 months ago, would seem to be the most likely to succeed, but don’t forget that she isn’t the first newcomer to win trophies for best new artist and best song. Christopher Cross (“Sailing”) won both of those in 1981 as well as best album and best record, and seemed to be cruising into a major career. And how’s that going?

The well-documented travails of the music industry today and the increasingly rigid playlists at commercial radio make it even more difficult to follow up a hit than in past years. The hook comes quicker now than ever, and career missteps are less forgiven. To help the sophomores pass their exams we present some campus rules that are suggested by past sophomores:

The Wallflower Rule -- Timing Is Everything: The Wallflowers had their breakthrough album, “Bringing Down the Horse,” in stores in summer 1996 and its signature hit, “One Headlight,” seemed to announce the arrival of a significant new artist in Jakob Dylan, son of a not-so-obscure songwriter named Bob. The disc sold 4.2 million copies in the U.S. and picked up some Grammys. Their follow-up album, “Breach,” did not arrive until fall 2000, and the dance had continued without them -- the sophomore CD sold a sobering 467,000.

What had changed? Music trends for one thing, with melodic, lyric-minded rock giving way to the bombast of rap-rock (Counting Crows out, Limp Bizkit in) and perhaps the public awareness of the group.

“You can’t say people forget, but there is a sense that if you wait too long people get disinterested or just sort of move on,” says Tom Calderone, an executive vice president at MTV. “There’s a science to it that’s not really a science, but you have to be away for a while but not for too long.”

The new Mayer album appears blessed with a perfect sense of timing, Calderone says. “People had time to live with the first album, but now it’s off the radio and people are ready for more. They got it just right.”

Andy Slater, now president of Capitol Records, has been manager or producer for artists who enjoyed major success early and some of them -- Fiona Apple, Macy Gray and the Wallflowers -- saw their follow-up albums sag. Each instance was different, but Slater says artists who write their own material are pressed for time as sophomores.

“Look at it this way: You live your whole life, you’re a writer and you create art from your experiences, and you have 20 or 30 songs when you go into the studio to make your first record, you pick the best 10 and you make a body of work that is a reflection of your life up to that point,” Slater said. “Then you have six months to figure what you’re going to write about for the second album.”

The Lauryn Rule -- Everything Is Not Everything: Not all artists are hung up on matching their breakthrough success, and the former Fugee is clearly one who sought refuge after her solo debut, “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill,” became a smash in 1998. Hill, then 23, won five Grammys in 1999 for her solo debut and promptly dropped off the radar to be with her growing family. Last year, she finally recorded and released a CD, but instead of a studio album it was an MTV performance with new, challenging material -- a clear declaration, Calderone says, “to artistically get something off her chest” and “shake off some of the mainstream fans but present a document of where she was and what she was feeling at that moment.”

Taking it down a notch and looking inward was also the course taken by Alanis Morissette after the monster success of her 1995 disc, “Jagged Little Pill” (14.7 million copies), one of the most impressive breakthrough albums in pop history. Her follow-up, “Supposed Former Infatuation Junkie,” sold 2.6 million copies, but it was clear her ambitions were not defined by sales charts.

Slater also points to the Beastie Boys, whom he worked with in their early days; they scored a huge commercial success in 1986 with their debut, the loony, ribald “License to Ill” (the first rap album to hit No. 1 on the pop charts) and then followed it up with the ambitious “Paul’s Boutique,” which has often been called the “Pet Sounds” of hip-hop.

Sometimes a follow-up album can be a clumsy stab for credibility or more artistic respect, especially if it’s from a band that worries that sales success the first time needs to be defended. The Strokes might be candidates for that kind of stumble, Calderone said.

The Britney Rule -- If It Works Once, Hit It Again: After her debut album, Spears could have become the next Debbie Gibson or Tiffany -- a froth-pop starlet with the shelf life of a sno-cone -- or position herself for Madonna-like longevity. She tweaked her fashion (schoolgirl out, dance-floor minx in) and worked on her craft but, really, kept the music right in the same groove, or didn’t you notice that “Oops! ... I Did it Again” sounded an awful lot like “... Baby One More Time”? Result: 10.5 million sales on the first album, 9 million sales on the second and now even Madonna wants to kiss her.

Of course, if this rule applied to everyone, Gibson and Tiffany would still be around too, and Lou Bega and the Baha Men would be keeping us in mambo and dog songs for years.

The Aguilera Rule -- Get Your Life in Tune: On her first album, little Christina Aguilera was a sultry teen genie in a bottle, a little girl with a big voice. That was in 1999. In 2002, Aguilera came back with an album called “Stripped” and suddenly she was, well, a stripper. Behind the scenes, the singer had jettisoned her management, rebelled against her public image and grappled with some personal issues. A classic situation for a breakthrough artist. “It’s paralyzing, it can just tear people up,” says Ron Fair, president of A&M; Records, a position he took after signing Aguilera and producing her debut disc. “It really separates the artists, it shows the depth of their character because of the pressure.”

So Aguilera tanked, right? Well, yes, when it came to the raunchy first single. Then the second single, the plaintive ballad called “Beautiful,” became a major hit. Whew.

Life issues are the wildest of wild cards. Slater points out that plenty of breakthrough artists fizzle the second time around because “they are suddenly surrounded by people that won’t tell them ‘No’ when they have a bad idea.” The hubris of success (as well as the money, excesses and pressures of stardom) can flunk any sophomore. This year, young Furtado is dealing with a life issue of a very different sort -- at this writing, the 20-year-old was expecting her first child any day, which may complicate the promotion of her Nov. 25 album “Folklore.”

The Ricky Rule -- Beware “The Next Big Thing”: Sure, “Living la Vida Loca” was seared into our collective memory in 1999, and Martin was the handsome face of the Latin music movement that was deemed the Official Next Big Thing in American pop. But when every magazine in the country agrees on a cultural prophecy, there is danger in the air. By 2000, Martin’s follow-up, “Sound Loaded,” sank on the charts like a rock.

The Hootie Rule -- Maybe “Once-in-a-Lifetime” Means Just That: Some albums catch a moment, a sound, a feeling and become bigger than the artist. Hootie & the Blowfish put together an album called “Cracked Rear View” that was grounded in an affable, nonchallenging sound that was as comfortable as an old college sweatshirt. They had good hooks and some fun music videos. Somehow, all that translated to the 11th-best-selling album ever -- as in, 11th in the history of American pop -- according to the Recording Industry Assn. of America.

Some albums become pop cultural touchstones and simply can’t be repeated, said Calderone. “And also people who have [bought] the first one kind of say, ‘Well, I have all I really need of that,’ and they keep going back to the original instead of getting the new one. You know what I mean?” We do, and we bet the Cranberries, Spin Doctors and Gin Blossoms can relate, too.

Dido seems to be the artist this season who might have to worry about this axiom. Her signature sound was so well captured by her “No Angel” disc that unless new songs really click as individual works, many of the fans who bought up 3.9 million copies might not pick up the new album.

The Shady Rule -- Just Get Better: If you can bring loaded dice to the crapshoot, you’re probably going to win. Eminem’s first album, “The Slim Shady LP” in 1999, was jolting, deliriously offensive and funny, and sold 4.7 million. He was dismissed by detractors as just a passing and unpleasant fad. His follow-up, the “Marshall Mathers LP” in 2000, was everything the first album was but also a lot more, the snapshot of a growing, challenging artist. It has sold 9.4 million copies. His third album, last year, has sold 8.7 million. Leave it to the class clown to get the best grades.

Keys and Eminem don’t seem to have much in common, but they are both hailed by many critics and most peers as shining talents of their generation, so Keys might be the one who follows this path. Davis certainly expects so.

But after years of watching artists deal with first-time success in so many different ways, he recognizes one rule that is verifiable.

“Some of the artists come back with a quest for credibility, they crave critical credibility if they had a strong commercial success the first time,” Davis said. “But you know what? A great review doesn’t sell an album the way a hit song does.”