Brains Against Brawn / Patriots smart and savvy while Panthers play the power game

Because the plans of the officiating crew will remain in doubt until sometime after the opening kickoff here today, there are two ways to figure Super Bowl XXXVIII:

* The New England Patriots will end the winter run of the Carolina Panthers by a score of about 24-10 if the officials call this one the way they worked most of the regular-season games of 2003.

* It has the look of a tossup, however, with New England perhaps winning narrowly, if the officials stand aside -- as they did in both conference title games -- and let the defensive backs and wide receivers fight their way to nearly every thrown ball. In the media cliche, they “let the boys play.”

But that notion is unfair. It awards a clear edge to defensive players.

Any tactic that impedes a receiver on his route to the ball alters the timing of the play, meaning that well thrown passes fall incomplete, or into the wrong hands -- as they repeatedly did in the conference title games -- and that pass rushers get more time to sack the quarterback.

The coaches who best understand all that are in this Super Bowl. They are Bill Belichick of New England and John Fox of Carolina, two wily, experienced defensive experts.

Offensively, the coaches differ in one fundamental respect. Fox likes to run and Belichick lives by the pass. Thus, if defensive backs are again illicitly shoving and grabbing receivers, Belichick will be hurt the most.

The competing quarterbacks, Tom Brady of New England and Jake Delhomme of Carolina, are also fundamentally different. To watch them is to see stark examples of the old way and the new way to throw a football.

Delhomme does it the old-fashioned way, which was in vogue from 1916 through the 1950s, until Joe Namath developed the modern style.

Briefly, Delhomme gets his passing power by striding forward as he throws, taking one long step or sometimes two or three.

If a pass rusher is close, Delhomme can’t take those steps. He must veer away -- or sometimes sling the ball sidearm. His passing mechanics change from play to play.

Delhomme has the look of a good athlete and throws accurately -- but not every time. His mechanics are so flawed that he can’t deliver good passes consistently.

Brady’s passing motion, by contrast, is compact and efficient, like Namath’s. Instead of taking a big step forward, he generates passing power by turning his hips and shoulders quickly, like a golfer, or a power hitter in baseball.

Before throwing, Brady carries the ball high, behind his right ear, and as he turns his body, he whips his passing arm around, unloading the ball cleanly, the same way each time.

The centerpiece of a pass-dominant offense, Brady throws with remarkable consistency. He has thrown hundreds of passes without an interception.

Although the Super Bowl coaches are both defensive experts their procedures differ decidedly. Belichick values innovation. Fox stresses soundness, agreeing with five-time champion Vince Lombardi, who said, “Let’s just do better what we do well.”

And like Lombardi, Fox believes that defense begins with front-four players who are so strong they don’t need much help from blitzers.

Belichick, by contrast, agrees with the only coach who ever built a five-time champion, Bill Walsh, whose strategy was to change up every week, devising different alignments and formations for each new opponent. Accordingly, Belichick has won Super Bowls and other big games with every stratagem from a two-man defensive line to wild blitzing with pass rushers who seem to come from every direction.

Belichick is saying what T-formation inventor Clark Shaughnessy first said: “It doesn’t matter what you do, as long as it’s new.”

Long ago, Fox and Belichick began as run-and-defend coaches. And Fox is still there. Belichick, though, is now a pass-and-defend coach.

He made a 180-degree change after defending against Ram Coach Mike Martz’s passing circus in Super Bowl XXXVI, a game Belichick’s team won, 20-17.

The lesson that other coaches got that day was that you beat a pass offense by beating up the receivers.

Belichick took away a different lesson. He learned that an aggressive, pass-first offense is the toughest of all offenses to stop.

As the only run-and-defend die-hard who ever converted to the passing game in mid-career, Belichick promptly built a quick-pass team, building around Brady. And, next, unless the defensive muggers win out, the Belichick & Brady Circus is coming to a TV set near you.