Roddick Will Have a Difficult Act to Follow

Debating which is the cruelest among Grand Slam events can go on for hours and never reach a resolution. Nastiness is in the eye of the beholder. One man’s abyss is another’s thrill.

One argument is that the most difficult majors to win among men’s events are the ones following a player’s first Slam victory.

Pete Sampras foundered in the year after he won the 1990 U.S. Open. He didn’t even play in the 1991 Australian Open because of an injury, and went out in the second round at the French Open and Wimbledon. Andre Agassi lost in the quarterfinals of the 1992 U.S. Open, after winning Wimbledon.

According to the ATP, the last man to win the next Slam event after notching his first one was John Newcombe of Australia in 1967, before the open era. He won his first major at Wimbledon and then won what is now known as the U.S. Open.

In 1974, Jimmy Connors took his first Grand Slam tournament at the Australian Open but did not play the next Slam event, the French Open, before going on to win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open that year.

The history lesson is relevant because the tennis world’s focus will be on Andy Roddick and the men’s field as the Australian Open, the first Grand Slam event of 2004, starts today (Monday in Australia) at Melbourne.

The women’s competition has been decimated by withdrawals -- defending champion Serena Williams, two-time winner Jennifer Capriati -- and barely propped up by the return of Venus Williams.

And so the spotlight will be on U.S. Open champion Roddick, who is seeded No. 1 for the first time at a Slam.

“With the exception of Andre, there’s been almost a complete changing of the guard as far as the young guys kind of taking over at the top of the game,” Roddick said last week during a conference call. “So I think that makes it very exciting; people are getting intrigued again; maybe they can sense a new generation of players that they will be able to watch for a little while to come.”

Roddick is 21; Wimbledon champion Roger Federer of Switzerland, who is seeded second, is 22. French Open winner Juan Carlos Ferrero of Spain, seeded third, is 23. Given such youth, there is no overwhelming favorite at Melbourne Park. Roddick used the word “lucky” to describe his place at the top of the rankings, adding that no player’s game is significantly ahead of the others’.

He also said he felt the No. 1 position made him a target, a prescient statement because it was made days before the draw came out, placing him against hard-hitting Chilean Fernando Gonzalez in the first round.

Gonzalez, ranked 35th as of Jan. 12, just missed being seeded. Roddick and Gonzalez are 1-1, and all four sets they’ve played have gone to a tiebreaker.

Roddick could face No. 27 Taylor Dent of Huntington Beach in the third round, with a rematch of his epic quarterfinal last year against Younes El Aynaoui of Morocco perhaps due in the fourth. All 10 of the Americans in the main draw without having to qualify are in the same half, including defending champion Andre Agassi, who is on a 21-match winning streak at the Australian Open.

The American women -- at least those who are left -- are spread out. But there’s concern that yet another may be forced to drop out. Fifth-seeded Lindsay Davenport, the only former Australian Open champion left in the women’s draw, may have to join Serena Williams (knee surgery) and Capriati (sore back) on the sideline. Davenport pulled out of a tune-up tournament in Sydney because of an injured right shoulder.

Health problems have not been limited to the Americans. Top-seeded Justine Henin-Hardenne and No. 2 Kim Clijsters, both of Belgium, each have sprained ankles. Henin-Hardenne, scheduled to play 15-year-old wild card Olivia Lukaszewicz in the first round, needed treatment for the injury at the tournament in Sydney. Clijsters was unable to play there.

That leaves Venus Williams as healthiest among the top women’s players, and she has not played a tour match since losing to younger sister Serena in the Wimbledon final in July.

Venus had been out because of a nagging abdominal strain, an ailment that had been bothering her since the spring clay-court season in 2003.

The Australian Open rewarded Venus with a seeding of No. 3, pulling her up from 11th, a move recommended by the WTA, which runs women’s tennis. Fourth-seeded Amelie Mauresmo of France complained that the change wasn’t fair, but Davenport, who was directly affected by the move (facing a possible quarterfinal vs. Henin-Hardenne), shrugged and said she has benefited from injury-protected rankings in the past.

Williams will play 43rd-ranked Ashley Harkleroad, a finalist in Auckland, in the first round; the first seeded player she could face would be No. 25 Lisa Raymond.

Williams is in the same half of the draw as Clijsters, No. 6 Anastasia Myskina of Russia, No. 8 Ai Sugiyama of Japan and No. 9 Chanda Rubin.