There’s Still a Perfect Way to Mess Up BCS Ranking

The first bowl championship series standings will be released today and, just like laundry soap on television, they are being advertised as “new and improved.”

The “new” part is indisputable.

For years, college football BCS leaders kept adding elements to the fangled formula until the standings became as convoluted as the U.S. tax code.

Even after all that, the BCS still didn’t work, last year spitting out an Oklahoma-Louisiana State showdown for the BCS national title even though USC was No. 1 in both the “human” polls.

The fiasco led to outrage, a split national title and a return to the BCS drawing board.

In essence, in the off-season, the BCS opted for the Richard Simmons deal-a-meal program.

The formula was downsized and simplified for public consumption.

Gone are the quality-win component, strength of schedule and ratings guru Jeff Sagarin’s having more say in the national-title process than Pete Carroll.

The “new” formula will give the bulk of the power back to the pollsters. The Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today coaches’ polls each will account for one-third of the formula, with the average of six computers (after the high and low rankings are discarded) making up the other third.

Whether the “new” BCS proves to be “improved” is debatable.

The new formula all but ensures that what happened to USC last year won’t happen again. The standings are weighted such that if USC remains No. 1 in both polls, there is virtually no chance the computer component can knock the Trojans below the No. 2 BCS position.

Yet, even as the BCS is set to unveil its new product, another potential disaster scenario awaits.

At this early stage, the storm brewing is like one of those hurricanes churning out in the Atlantic and we here at the BCS Weather Channel have no idea whether it will make landfall.

The issue the new BCS doesn’t address is this: What happens if, at season’s end, there are more than two undefeated teams?

What happens if there are three, four or five?

What happens if one of those teams, Auburn, ends up 12-0 and shut out of the BCS title game after it emerges as champion of the Southeastern Conference, arguably the nation’s best?

The simple answer is “it won’t happen.”

Never in the six-year history of the BCS have three schools in the top 10 finished with no losses.

Yet, there are interesting scenarios developing.

Last weekend, the number of undefeated major college schools was reduced from 14 to seven.

Six of those seven schools are ranked in the top 10 -- USC, Oklahoma, Miami, Auburn, Wisconsin and Utah.

None of the six schools play each other, meaning there are no automatic losses built into the equation.

Each of the six schools has a decent chance of running the table and finishing without a loss.

USC faces only one ranked opponent -- No. 24 Notre Dame.

Oklahoma’s toughest game may be a Nov. 6 trip to revitalized Texas A&M;, no doubt out to avenge last year’s 77-0 loss to the Sooners.

Miami’s biggest test is Nov. 13 at Virginia, which Florida State just exposed as a fraud.

Auburn has the toughest road, still having to play Georgia, Alabama and the SEC title game.

Wisconsin already is 7-0 and misses Michigan on the schedule.

Utah, after going 3-0 against BCS schools, closes with five Mountain West opponents. Realistically, Utah has no shot of finishing first or second in the BCS, but does have a shot of earning an automatic BCS berth by finishing No. 6 or higher.

Is there a chance one or all of these undefeated teams will lose a game between now and Dec. 4?

Absolutely, and that has been the trend.

Remember, though, that last year at this time, BCS officials scoffed at the thought USC could be No. 1 in both polls and not make the BCS title game.

In matters concerning the BCS, it has been good policy never to assume anything and expect the unexpected.

Of course, BCS shirts will tell you this “unknown” factor is what makes the non-playoff world of college football as invigorating as it is aggravating.

As always, stay tuned.

Weekend Wrap

Paging would-have-been junior tailback Maurice Clarett ... in Ohio State’s 33-7 loss to Iowa, the Buckeyes rushed the ball 29 times for 27 net yards. Two years after winning the national title, Ohio State has lost three consecutive games for the first time since, well, anyone could have imagined.

More sinister BCS scenarios: If you thought USC versus Iowa two years ago was the best Rose Bowl game ever staged by the Orange Bowl, how about the prospect of No. 1 USC vs. No. 2 Wisconsin playing in the Orange Bowl this season?

A more pleasant Rose Bowl scenario has USC and Oklahoma playing in the Orange Bowl, and Pasadena playing host to 10-1 California and 11-0 Wisconsin.

Longshot alert: It would take a considerable amount of upheaval, but there is still an outside chance USC and California could meet in the Orange Bowl for the national title. This would require Cal’s somehow working its way up to the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings.

No fair peeking ... It’s all but impossible to nail down the BCS standings in advance this year because the computers have agreed to embargo their weekly rankings until Monday. It’s safe to say BCS officials weren’t happy about getting “scooped” every week on their standings by anyone on the Internet willing to do the math and the legwork.