It Lacks Quantity, Quality

The Juvenile Stakes, for 2-year-old colts and geldings, has long held a featured position on Breeders’ Cup cards. But not this year. When the eight Breeders’ Cup races are run at Lone Star Park Oct. 30, the Juvenile is likely to be the blandest event of the day.

Only eight horses are eligible to run in the 21st edition of the Juvenile, and what an oddball lot they are. Start with Twice Unbridled, a maiden from the San Luis Rey Downs training center in Bonsall, Calif., who hasn’t come close in two starts at Del Mar and Santa Anita.

Mike Watchmaker, the Daily Racing Form’s Breeders’ Cup handicapper, didn’t mince numbers with the early Juvenile betting line: He has Twice Unbridled pegged at odds of 100-1. None of the 107 other pre-entered horses in any of the races is listed at higher than 50-1.

Only six Juvenile starters over the years have gone off at more than 100-1, but maybe Dan Jensen, who co-owns and trains Twice Unbridled, isn’t so daft after all. His horse has only three others to beat to collect the fifth-place purse of $30,000. Two Juvenile longshots -- Regal Dreamer at 145-1 in 1985 and Publication at 103-1 in 2001 -- finished fourth and earned $70,000 and $56,000, respectively.

The 1 1/16 -mile Juvenile has drawn Scandinavia from Ireland and Wilko from England. Both will be running on dirt for the first time. Wilko, the busiest of the Juvenile contenders, has won two of 10 starts. Scandinavia has one win and three seconds in four tries.

Scandinavia and Wilko leave only six starters from the U.S. chasing the $1.5-million purse.

The best of them may be Roman Ruler, who lost a hard-fought battle to Declan’s Moon in the Del Mar Futurity and then won the Norfolk in what was essentially a paid workout at Santa Anita. The day before the Norfolk, the filly Sweet Catomine ran 1 2/5 seconds faster than Roman Ruler in winning the Oak Leaf Stakes. Declan’s Moon, a gelding with no breeding value, was given a rest after the grueling Del Mar race and might not run until the Hollywood Futurity on Dec. 18.

Coming from New York are Proud Accolade, Afleet Alex and Sun King, the 1-2-3 finishers in the Champagne at Belmont Park, and completing the field is Consolidator, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland after running a couple of dull races at Saratoga.

Where did all the 2-year-olds go? “I think it’s just the year and the crop,” said D.G. Van Clief, president of the Breeders’ Cup. “I’m not aware of any specific elements that have played a part.”

No Juvenile winner has won the Kentucky Derby, or even a Triple Crown race. Alysheba, third in the 1986 Juvenile, won the Derby the next year.

This year, the Juvenile might have been in worse shape had the old-reliable trainers not sent horses. Wayne Lukas, who has started 34 horses in the stake, winning it five times, trains Consolidator. Bob Baffert, who won the Juvenile in 2002 with Vindication and has run 11 other horses, will saddle Roman Ruler. Nick Zito, who has had six Juvenile starters, has Sun King.

Last year, Zito inexplicably didn’t run in either of the 2-year-old races at Santa Anita, even though he had several contenders. Lukas and Baffert have accounted for almost 20% of all the Juvenile starters.

Barring scratches, this will be the smallest Juvenile field since 1997, when eight ran at Hollywood Park. That was the year undefeated Favorite Trick entered the race with seven consecutive victories. Favorite Trick won by 5 1/2 lengths and was voted horse of the year. Eleven times the Juvenile has had a 13- or 14-horse field.

Perhaps Breeders’ Cup officials shouldn’t have been surprised at the small turnout. The prep races also had trouble drawing horses.

There were eight runners in the Champagne. Because of Roman Ruler, the Norfolk and the Del Mar Futurity had only four apiece. The Kentucky Cup Juvenile attracted only six, as did the Futurity at Belmont. The Belmont Futurity was won by Park Avenue Ball, but he finished fifth in the Champagne three weeks later.

Park Avenue Ball wasn’t ready for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but this year you can say that about a lot of horses.

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The Facts

The 21st running of the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships consists of eight Grade I races with purses and awards totaling $14 million guaranteed.

* When -- Saturday, Oct. 30, 2004

* Where -- Lone Star Park, Grand Prairie, Texas

* TV -- Channel 4. Coverage begins at 10 a.m. PST

* Races -- $2-million Distaff; $1-million Juvenile Fillies; $1.5-million Mile; $1-million Sprint; $1-million Filly & Mare Turf; $1.5-million Juvenile; $2-million Turf; $4-million Classic