Capitol Primed for War, Not Solutions

“There is very little action going on over there at the Capitol, may I remind you,” Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger complained to reporters last week. “A lot of excuses, a lot of complaints and a lot of finger-pointing. That’s all the action we have seen so far.”

One week later, the place is still dead.

Assembly Democrats spent Tuesday and Wednesday at a Newport Beach resort hotel “retreating” -- ruminating about how to react to Schwarzenegger’s ballot-bound “reforms.”

Democrats of both houses are planning so-called “town halls” around the state, ostensibly to elicit citizens’ views about state policy, but really to schmooze voters and attract local TV and newspaper coverage.

Actually, there is considerable action in Sacramento. There’s a lot of preparation for political war. The overriding assumption is that Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislators will be unable -- unwilling -- to negotiate bipartisan compromises, and will fight it out in a November special election.

This will be “nuclear war” -- a $100-million, special interest-financed bombardment of ceaseless mail droppings and TV ad affronts.

The current political dynamics practically demand it.

Schwarzenegger is super-confident, having never faced political defeat -- or much of any defeat. He’s smashing ahead, seeing himself as a historic “reformer.”

A “political-industrial complex” has developed around Schwarzenegger: a team of private campaign consultants who make a bundle off his ballot brawls. The governor spent $1.9 million on political consultants last year, plus $302,000 on fundraising and $802,000 on campaign travel.

All political combatants -- Democrats, business, labor -- have their own stable of hired guns anxious for big paydays.

Another dynamic is pushing the two sides toward a fall fight: While Schwarzenegger can control business interests merely through body language, Democratic leaders probably are too weak to contain their patrons -- the public employees and teachers unions. Even if Democrats and Schwarzenegger were to compromise and place bipartisan measures on the ballot, the unions might fight them anyway, ripping apart the party.

“Just what kind of deal are we going to make? Shoot public employee unions and teachers to help the [state] Chamber?” asks one Democratic strategist, echoing a common hard-line attitude. “How would we survive by shooting our friends?”

That thinking frustrates moderates like Assemblyman Joe Canciamilla (D-Pittsburg).

“We’re beyond trying to solve problems,” Canciamilla says. “We’re arming for war. Some folks even are looking past this election. It’s about taking out the governor. That’s a pipe dream....

“Both sides have given up. It’s almost as if we’ve written off the legislative process. We’re living down to the public’s common expectation. We’re just reinforcing the governor’s position that the Legislature is a waste of time.”

But there’s ample room for compromise if the two sides ever decide to seriously negotiate.

Some examples:

* Budgeting: Schwarzenegger proposes to automatically cut spending across the board when a budget veers into the red and the Legislature deadlocks on a solution. Democrats point out that one-third of the Legislature -- Republicans -- could block a solution because budget passage requires a two-thirds vote.

Suggestion: Allow passage of a budget fix on a majority vote. “I’m willing to look at anything as long as in the end there’s a balanced budget,” says Assemblyman Rick Keene of Chico, the lead Republican on the Budget Committee. “I don’t think anything should be off the table.”

How about passing a temporary tax increase on a majority vote? “No,” Keene replies, noting that half of any new tax revenue must go to schools. Other programs automatically would gobble up more of the tax hike.

Suggestion: Amend the Constitution to allow new taxes to be used solely for deficit reduction.

* Pensions: Schwarzenegger proposes to replace costly pension systems for new public employees with 401(k)-type investment plans.

Suggestion: Go to a hybrid system -- part pension, part 401(k). Place the financing risk on both employer and employee. But exempt teachers. Unlike state employees, they’re not eligible for Social Security.

* Merit pay: Schwarzenegger wants to pay teachers based on performance, not tenure. This scares teachers, who don’t trust school principals not to play favorites.

Suggestion: Set aside some money for merit pay, but let the teachers decide who gets it. Also, give extra for teaching in inner-city, low-performing schools -- what Schwarzenegger calls “combat pay.”

* Redistricting: Schwarzenegger advocates stripping the Legislature of its power to redraw legislative and congressional districts. He wants a neutral panel to redraw current districts by at least the 2008 elections. Many Republican congressmen and Democratic lawmakers oppose this.

Suggestion: Redistrict the Legislature immediately, but exempt Congress until after the next census in 2010. Tie it to the loosening of term limits. Allow 16 years total, all of it in one house if a lawmaker desires and voters agree. The current limits are ludicrous: six in the Assembly, eight in the Senate.

Unfortunately, both sides appear to be itching for a fight. That’s risky. Schwarzenegger could lose and become a mortal politician. Democrats could be buried with their union backers.

The politicians need to stay in Sacramento and use the Capitol for what it’s there for: compromising and solving problems.

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.