Risky Business

To try or not to try, that is the question.

And in the last week of the NFL’s regular season, there are no easy answers.

The Philadelphia Eagles took a do-or-doze approach to last Monday’s game at St. Louis, for example, playing their starters on offense only one series in a 20-7 loss to the Rams.

The game was essentially meaningless for the Eagles, who already had the No. 1 seeding in the NFC, but the outcome kept the Rams in the postseason hunt. Had the Eagles won, they would have eliminated St. Louis and guaranteed both a playoff berth for Minnesota and the NFC West title for Seattle.

No wonder Viking owner Red McCombs was miffed the day after, even though he insisted he was irked on behalf of the fans and not his team.

“Resting people who are not injured, I’m totally opposed to that,” said McCombs, whose team can make the playoffs with a victory at Washington today. “It’s not good for the game. To me, the issue is simple: The fans are entitled to the best you’ve got and all you’ve got of it. That’s the way I see it.... That’s what the people who bought these season tickets and filled up the stadium had in mind.”

That said, Eagle Coach Andy Reid is facing enormous pressure to reach the Super Bowl, especially after losing three consecutive NFC championship games. Also, the Eagles just lost star receiver Terrell Owens -- his ankle injury almost surely would keep him out of the Super Bowl, if Philadelphia got that far -- and Reid is determined to keep his vital players as healthy as possible.

“You look at our past history,” Reid told reporters after the St. Louis loss. “Going into the playoffs, we really haven’t gone in with everybody we would have liked to have. So I wanted to make sure that we were able to keep guys healthy and at least have somewhat of a chance to go in with a gun fully loaded.”

Atlanta went into last Sunday’s game against New Orleans with a pea-shooter, resting Michael Vick, Alge Crumpler and T.J. Duckett. The Falcons had already locked up the No. 2 seeding in the NFC, so why put those star players at risk? As a result, one more team, the 7-8 Saints, stayed alive in the NFC race.

“You’ve earned the right to run your team the way you see fit,” said Rich McKay, general manager of the Falcons. “I know if I were with a team and we were in a position where we needed another team to lose, I might see it differently. But otherwise ... this is a fact of life. Late in the year there are going to be certain teams, who because they’ve wrapped up their seed, are not going to play people that potentially are going to be injured.”

Of course, the Vikings and Seahawks have only themselves to blame for the pressure they’re feeling. Minnesota has lost three of its last four. The Seahawks haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 8 and 9. There aren’t a lot of players in those locker rooms holding a grudge against the coasting Eagles and Falcons.

“Atlanta owes whatever they owe to themselves, and Philly owes whatever they owe to themselves,” Seattle center Robbie Tobeck told the Everett (Wash.) Herald. “I’m not worried about helping other teams.... If I’m a team that’s already taken care of business, already sewn things up, I can’t be playing for other people. I’ve got to be playing for my team to get to the Super Bowl.”

There’s a definite downside to resting starters -- a loss of momentum. That happened to Denver in 1996, when the Broncos were 12-1 and clinched home-field advantage in the AFC with three games to play. The starters got a break, among them quarterback John Elway, and the team stumbled to a 41-6 loss to Green Bay in the first game after clinching. Denver then suffered a 30-27 loss at home in the first round to Jacksonville, a 14-point underdog that reached the postseason with a 9-7 record.

“People don’t realize how devastating a loss like that can be,” Denver Coach Mike Shanahan said a year after that upset. “When you put your heart and soul into something, when you’re working 100-hour weeks and everything is built up for that opportunity, it just rips your guts apart when you don’t take advantage of it.”

This season, the Broncos don’t have the luxury -- or the potential curse -- of cruising across the regular-season finish line. They need to defeat visiting Indianapolis today to secure a wild-card berth.

“You’ve got to concentrate on your job,” Shanahan said. “You never know what’s going to happen. But it’s sure nice to know you’re in control.”

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Last Chance

History shows that teams winning in Week 17 improve their chances for playoff success. In the last five seasons, playoff teams seeded 1-4 have a far better winning percentage after winning in Week 17 than those that lose in the last week.

* Number of 1-4 playoff seeds winning in Week 17...30

* Their record in first playoff games...25-5

* Their winning percentage....833

* Number of 1-4 playoff seeds losing in Week 17...10

* Their record in first playoff games... 6-4

* Their winning percentage....600

Source: NFL