Public’s Renewed Focus on Education Could Teach Governor a Lesson

Scuff marks are beginning to show on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s battle armor. Signs of wear and tear. Hints of vulnerability.

This is to be expected for any politician. And Schwarzenegger, after all, has become a politician, much as he’d still like to be seen mainly as a Hollywood superstar, a Sacramento outsider.

But many people -- mostly Sacramento types -- were thinking that this particular politician just might be invincible.

He might be yet, but a poll released today by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California shows some chinks in Schwarzenegger’s popularity.

Republicans still love him. But Democrats are having serious doubts about some of his policies, especially on schools.

“This was a very revealing survey for me in terms of the change of public opinion from a year ago,” says the institute’s pollster, Mark Baldassare.

The poll, conducted after the governor’s State of the State speech and new budget proposal, shows that 51% of California adults disapprove of the way Schwarzenegger is handling K-12 education. Only 34% approve. Democrats especially disapprove -- 72% of them.

At a Sacramento Press Club luncheon Wednesday, Schwarzenegger blamed “special interests,” presumably teachers unions.

“It’s very important for the people to understand,” he said, “that there are special interests out there who will do everything possible to make the people believe ... that I cut education. In fact, I have increased education [funding] by $2.9 billion.... We always give education as much money as possible.”

Yes, the governor proposed a $2.9-billion bump in school spending. But that’s $2.3 billion less than what schools are owed under a deal he cut -- and reneged on -- with ed leaders.

There is a small storm brewing in the electorate, not yet a perfect storm, but a significant confluence of disturbances.

At the very moment people are expressing doubts about Schwarzenegger’s treatment of schools, education is reemerging as the “most important issue facing California,” in the public’s view.

Asked by the poll to name their No. 1 issue, 22% of those surveyed listed education. That was followed by the budget deficit and taxes, 20%, and the economy and jobs, 15%.

It has been three years, Baldassare says, since education ranked No. 1 in his poll. Last January, it rated only No. 3. The budget then was No. 1, followed by the economy.

So Schwarzenegger may be hitched to a dying horse, the economy issue.

“Education is back on the radar screen,” the pollster says, “and this has people worried about the governor’s budget.”

In his interviewing, Baldassare noted that the budget would withhold money from schools, reduce some health and human services, dip into transportation funds, borrow to make ends meet and not raise taxes. Only 38% of people were satisfied with that budget; 55% were unsatisfied, including 74% of Democrats.

By contrast, last January the tables were turned: 57% were satisfied with the new governor’s budget and just 30% unsatisfied, including 42% of Democrats.

People still like the guy: His 60% job approval rating is virtually unchanged from last year. But his disapproval has risen, to 33% from 22%. This is especially pronounced among Democrats; 49% now disapprove of his job performance. Only 27% did a year ago.

The California electorate is becoming more polarized about the Republican governor. And why shouldn’t it? The nation is politically polarized. And this is a blue state with a Democratic voter advantage, 43% to 35%.

Schwarzenegger proudly waved his Republican colors last summer when he spoke to millions of TV viewers from the party’s national convention. Then he made a high-profile trip to Ohio to campaign side-by-side with President Bush.

A few days later, Californians rejected Bush by 10 points and backed Democrat John Kerry.

The governor has been calling Democratic politicians in California “girlie men,” “losers” and “stooges.” It shouldn’t be a surprise that he has taken on a partisan hue.

Now, Schwarzenegger is preparing to ask voters to approve his package of government and political “reforms” at a special election in November.

A special election would cost taxpayers at least $50 million -- money they could save if the governor waited until next year’s regular balloting for a vote.

“Think big,” he told me at the Press Club when I asked what was so urgent about his proposals that they were worth the high cost of a special election. “Sometimes you have to put up a certain amount of money to make more money back.... Fifty million dollars will make us a lot more money [from budget reforms].”

But the public isn’t convinced. Asked by the poll whether he should call an election this year or hold off until the June 2006 primary, 45% said go for it now and 50% wanted him to wait. When people were told that a special election would cost at least $50 million, support for it fell to 20%.

So a special election is a big risk even for a celebrity politician considered by many to be invincible. If there’s no compromise with the Legislature on these proposals, there’ll be a bitterly partisan shootout between Schwarzenegger and Democrats -- between his special interests and the Democrats’ interests, including the potent California Teachers Assn.

The Terminator could meet his match in teachers -- and schoolkids and parents.

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.