August and Everything After

If the Astros are down and seemingly out ...

If Red Sox Nation has sworn off the Olde Towne team six times since the uniforms were handed out, and taken it back seven times ...

If the A’s hardly ever lose ...

And a winner can be declared in exactly one division ...

It must be August, and there must be six weeks to play, and this must be Uncle Bud’s golden era.

A look at the potential postseason picture:

National League

IN

* Mets -- They’re in if: Nine guys show up to work every day.

They’re out if: Bud Selig, in the interest of parity, expunges the first three months.

How this happened: Buried an otherwise bad division with an MVP candidate (Carlos Beltran); the best bullpen in the league and the best left side (David Wright, Jose Reyes) in town.

From now until Oct. 1: Coast, revive Pedro Martinez, square away their outfield corners.

CAN DO IT THEMSELVES

* Dodgers -- They’re in if: Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux are strong in the front, Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito in the back.

They’re out if: There’s any wobble there, and the offense doesn’t turn from the inside -- Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, J.D. Drew -- out.

How this happened: Beats us.

From now until Oct. 1: Twenty-three games in the division, 13 on the road.

* Cardinals -- They’re in if: They get any starting pitching at all.

They’re out if: Albert Pujols can’t carry them on the days Chris Carpenter doesn’t pitch.

How this happened: They should be up with the Mets, but Cardinals starters have the fewest strikeouts among NL contenders and have allowed opponents to hit .281.

From now until Oct. 1: Mark Mulder is due back this week and can only help. Presumably.

* Reds -- They’re in if: One among them can protect a lead: The Reds have blown 20 saves, second-worst to the Braves in the NL.

They’re out if: That guy isn’t Eddie Guardado. Reds can’t go on like this: They blew three saves and still won two of three from the Phillies last weekend.

How this happened: They lead the NL in home runs; Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are surprisingly consistent.

From now until Oct. 1: Twelve of their last 16 games are on the road.

* Padres -- They’re in if: They can win a few home games; they have been outscored and out-homered at Petco.

They’re out if: The Dodgers win another 17 of 18.

How this happened: Decent starting pitching, better bullpen.

From now until Oct. 1: Jake Peavy’s earned-run average the last three Septembers: 2.52.

* Diamondbacks -- They’re in if: Luis Gonzalez hits 57 home runs again.

They’re out if: Brandon Webb is the only reliable starter.

How this happened: It took a while, but they put Jason Grimsley behind them.

From now until Oct. 1: Livan Hernandez’s history: good in August, poor in September.

* Phillies -- They’re in if: They can dump a couple of more key players.

They’re out if: They can’t get through six; starters’ ERA is the worst in the league.

How this happened: Traded Bobby Abreu, Cory Lidle on July 31; 10-7 since.

From now until Oct. 1: Ryan Howard, Sept./Oct. 2005: 11 homers, 27 RBIs.

NEED A TOW ROPE

* Rockies -- They’re in if: They unplug the humidor: Their 49 homers at home are 15th in the NL.

They’re out if: Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe fade. They have 58 homers, everyone else has 51.

How this happened: So-so division carries everyone along.

From now until Oct. 1: Ten of their last 13 games are at Coors Field.

* Astros -- They’re in if: Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt get run support.

They’re out if: A .253 average with runners in scoring position (Lance Berkman at .402 is the only regular above .300) doesn’t dramatically improve.

How this happened: The offense; the closer.

From now until Oct. 1: On an 11-game trip that could end it.

* Brewers -- They’re in if: Francisco Cordero stays hot, Bill Hall and Prince Fielder get hot, other NL wild-carders go cold.

They’re out if: They keep scheduling road games; Reds are the only team in division with a winning road record.

How this happened: Expected to be better; pitching has let them down.

From now until Oct. 1: Nineteen road games.

* Giants -- They’re in if: They can keep playing the Padres.

They’re out if: Omar Vizquel continues as their best hitter.

How this happened: Barry Bonds: 16 home runs, 50 RBIs, sedentary in left field.

From now until Oct. 1: Armando Benitez fading fast; 4.22 ERA since All-Star break.

American League

IN

* Tigers -- They’re in if: There are still cigarettes to be had somewhere in Michigan.

They’re out if: Can’t happen.

How this happened: The pitching staff grew up all at once.

From now until Oct. 1: Mike Maroth (elbow) due back soon.

CAN DO IT THEMSELVES

* White Sox -- They’re in if: Their starters recapture anything close to last year’s form.

They’re out if: The pressure of walking Ozzie Guillen’s talk is too much.

How this happened: Only one Sox starter (Jose Contreras) in the ERA top 30.

From now until Oct. 1: Schedule: Minnesota (nine), Detroit (seven), Boston (three).

* Yankees -- They’re in if: Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang stay sturdy at the top and Carl Pavano isn’t necessary.

They’re out if: This trend continues -- Alex Rodriguez has made seven errors while playing behind Mussina.

How this happened: Life would have been easier with Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield around.

From now until Oct. 1: Last series against Red Sox: Sept. 15-17 (four games) in the Bronx.

* Red Sox -- They’re in if: Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling lead the way, Jon Lester, David Wells follow along.

They’re out if: Mike Timlin continues to have trouble getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon.

How this happened: Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta and Alex Gonzalez are better than we thought.

From now until Oct. 1: Jason Varitek, the player-pitching coach, due back in September.

* Twins -- They’re in if: Francisco Liriano isn’t done, and isn’t done soon.

They’re out if: The bridge from Johan Santana to Brad Radke is Carlos Silva, Matt Garza and Boof Bonser.

How this happened: Two-fifths Santana and Liriano, three-fifths Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer.

From now until Oct. 1: They have nine games left against the White Sox, beginning this weekend.

* A’s -- They’re in if: Milton Bradley continues to be the conscience of the team, uniting the A’s with his persistent professionalism and selfless courage.

They’re out if: They are counting on any of that.

How this happened: Frank Thomas: 25 homers, 70 RBIs, .385 on-base percentage; team ERA is second in AL.

From now until Oct. 1: Rich Harden’s return would be huge, for September and the postseason.

IT HAS LOOKED BETTER

* Angels -- They’re in if: Garret Anderson and Juan Rivera make it impossible to pitch around Vladimir Guerrero.

They’re out if: There’s any hitch at all; between the injuries, suspensions and deficit, it has to be seamless from here on.

How this happened: Lost the big arm in Bartolo Colon, never did get the big bat.

From now until Oct. 1: Seven of last 10, including final four in Anaheim, against the A’s.

* Rangers -- They’re in if: The Angels and A’s collapse (don’t count on it).

They’re out if: After a decade of trying, their rotation doesn’t come together in the next six weeks.

How this happened: The only three AL teams with worse ERAs: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Kansas City. But, they got Carlos Lee!

From now until Oct. 1: Good news: 19 of 38 games at home. Bad news: They’re .500 at home.

* Blue Jays -- They’re in if: The Yankees and Red Sox kill each other off.

They’re out if: That weird virus returns to the clubhouse. Not Shea Hillenbrand, the other one.

How this happened: A.J. Burnett has barely been a factor; injuries and misshapen roster did the rest.

From now until Oct. 1: Ten of last 13 against Red Sox and Yankees.