Look ahead and get left behind

The pass and catch words for this week are “watch” and “out.”

Ohio State and Michigan are so close to facing off in a historic game of maize and mankind, some loyalists are already getting “big chill” bumps.

Ohio State is so excited it can’t even decide what kind of sod to plant for Michigan.

But that game is next week.

Everyone knew USC and California were going to play Nov. 18 in the Coliseum, with at least the Rose Bowl at stake, but you can’t get to the third Saturday in November until you play the second.

Louisville just hit the down button after the most elevated win in team history and now has its sights set on a possible national title run.

A big hiccup in that plan might be tonight’s game at feisty Rutgers.

Instead of audibles to combat crowd noise, Louisville should be working on its danger signals.

“If we think past that, we’re going to be in trouble,” Cardinals’ Coach Bobby Petrino said of the Rutgers game.

Florida has already clinched a spot in the Southeastern Conference championship game but, with sights still set on a national title and former coach Steve Spurrier coming into town, is that such a good thing?

“I am very concerned,” Florida Coach Urban Meyer said.

“You’re dealing with 18- to 20-year-old kids.”

The look-ahead letdown may be college football’s most diabolical demon.

In 1998, all Kansas State had to do to make the Bowl Championship Series title game was beat Texas A&M; in the Big 12 title game.

Kansas State lost.

Two years ago, a win over lowly Syracuse would have clinched a Big East title and a BCS berth for Boston College. Syracuse won, 43-17, and Boston College fell to the Continental Tire Bowl.

There is also a condition -- one Louisville will be fighting -- known as post-euphoric meltdown.

In 1993, Notre Dame defeated Florida State in South Bend in one of the greatest games ever witnessed, all but setting up Lou Holtz’s second national title.

But the Irish were then upset by Boston College, and Florida State ended up winning a first title for Bobby Bowden.

Shoot, this year, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan almost got caught looking two weeks ahead when both schools struggled against inferior opponents.

Illinois and Ball State should never be attempting onside kicks at the end with a chance to tie and/or defeat the top two schools in the nation.

“I don’t know if there’s such a thing as a magical wake-up call, but I think reality is very important,” Ohio State Coach Jim Tressel said.

The reality is, very few teams are good enough to take a game off. You can get away with a one-half siesta, as Ohio State did against Illinois after building a 17-0 lead at Illinois.

To paraphrase the late coach George Allen, the future is not next week, it’s now:

* Ohio State at Northwestern:

What’s at stake: Ohio State needs the win to stay No. 1 and set-up next week’s game-of-the-year in Columbus.

What can go wrong: Two years ago, Northwestern shocked the Buckeyes in Evanston, in overtime. And just last week, first-year coach Pat Fitzgerald took his Wildcats to Iowa and pulled of an upset.

Reality check: Northwestern is 1-17 against opponents ranked No. 1 by the Associated Press. Ohio State just hit the snooze button last week against Illinois and probably will rebound with a robust performance.

* Michigan at Indiana:

What’s at stake: Michigan has to win to set up the Ohio State showdown and secure no worse than a Rose Bowl bid.

What can go wrong: Michigan can raise BCS doubts by playing another game the way it played against Ball State. Indiana has already defeated one ranked Big Ten team in Bloomington this year, No. 15 Iowa.

Reality check: Lloyd Carr is 9-0 against Indiana and the Hoosiers are coming off a 63-26 loss to Minnesota. Michigan probably will win but needs to perform more like a team on the upswing.

* Oregon at USC.

What’s at stake: USC needs to win to set up next week’s possible Rose Bowl deciding game against Cal.

What can go wrong: USC could fall behind to Oregon, 13-0, as it did last year, and not have the ability to score 45 unanswered points.

Reality check: If USC can lose to Oregon State, it can lose to Oregon.

* Cal at Arizona:

What’s at stake: Possibly Cal’s first Rose Bowl trip since 1959.

What can go wrong: UCLA, ranked No. 7, went to Arizona last year and lost 52-14.

Reality check: Cal wins.

* Louisville at Rutgers:

What’s at stake: A win might propel Louisville all the way to the national title game.

What can go wrong: Louisville could suffer a post-West Virginia let down.

Can the Cardinals put together passionate efforts on consecutive Thursday nights?

Reality check: Last Thursday was the biggest home game in Louisville history. This Thursday it’s the biggest home game in Rutgers’ history.

* South Carolina at Florida:

What’s at stake: Florida has already won the SEC East Division but needs to keep winning to stay alive in the national title race.

What can go wrong: Gators players might let down after clinching a trip to the SEC title game with last week’s win against Vanderbilt.

Spurrier is coaching his first game in Gainesville since he led Florida to six outright SEC titles and a national title in 12 years, from 1990 through 2001.

Reality check: Last year, his first at South Carolina, Spurrier beat his old team in Columbia. Who’s to say he can’t do it again.

Blitz Package

* Wait a minute: A 12-0 Louisville can make it to the national title game but a 12-0 Rutgers can’t? That’s the likely scenario and it would no doubt raise hackles in Big East offices.

The problem is a familiar one: college football punishes schools that weren’t highly ranked before the season started. West Virginia and Louisville had an inside track to the BCS title game because those Big East schools ranked in the preseason top-15. Rutgers was not ranked, but if the Scarlet Knights go 12-0 they would have beaten Louisville and West Virginia.

Rutgers Coach Greg Schiano said this week that since his team has not yet defeated either school, it’s “not worth wasting energy thinking about.”

* Wait a miracle minute: It was 35 years ago this month that UC Davis scored 16 points in the last 20 seconds to pull off an amazing comeback win against Cal State Hayward.

With no timeouts remaining, UC Davis scored two touchdowns and two, two-point conversions to pull out a 30-29 victory. The quarterback who led the comeback was Bob Biggs, currently the team’s coach.

A young receiver in the game had two huge plays, catching a 24-yard pass on third and 10 to set up the first touchdown and a 29-yard scoring pass with four seconds left that led to the game-winning two-point conversion.

The receiver was Mike Bellotti, now the coach at Oregon.

“Honestly, in terms of my playing memories, it’s probably one of the top two or three things in my life,” Bellotti said this week of the “Miracle Minute” game. “To me, it sort of cemented my philosophy as a coach that you’re never out of it. You always can find a way to win a football game.”

And the flip side?

“That you never have it guaranteed,” Bellotti said. “You’ve got to make sure you coach down to the last minute, whether you’re ahead or behind.”

* Ifs, ands and bowl buts: If No. 1 Ohio State beats No. 2 Michigan, and Louisville earns the No. 2 BCS spot, and Florida wins the SEC title, and Auburn finishes 11-1 without making the SEC title game, and Cal wins the Pac-10, Texas wins the Big 12, Georgia Tech wins the Atlantic Coast Conference, and Boise State earns an automatic BCS bid, this is how the major bowls might shake out:

BCS championship: Ohio State vs. Louisville.

Rose: Cal vs. Michigan.

Fiesta: Boise State vs. Texas.

Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame.

Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Auburn.

* Wouldn’t it be ironic, or at least interesting, if the Fiesta Bowl, mired in a fight with the NFL Arizona Cardinals over signage issues for this year’s BCS national championship, ended up playing host to the Cardinals (Louisville) on Jan. 8?

The Fiesta Bowl, putting on its annual game this year as well as the BCS title, lobbied to cover stadium references to the NFL Cardinals for the two college games.

One team that won’t be playing in the BCS title game is the University of Phoenix, which recently won the naming rights to the new stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

* It doesn’t get bigger than this for Rutgers: Tonight’s game against Louisville marks the first time in the team’s 137-year history that a ranked Rutgers team has played a ranked opponent.

* One streak over, one continues. Division III powerhouse Linfield of Oregon had its 27-game winning Northwest Conference winning streak ended last week when the Wildcats lost at home to Whitworth.

Linfield’s record fell to 5-3 but, with only one game remaining, the school has already secured its NCAA-record 51st consecutive winning season.

chris.dufresne@latimes.com