Powers that be

By Mark Heisler

April 20, 2007 12 AM PT

Anything can happen in the NBA playoffs?

The worse things get, the more people cling to this slender hope, such as Philadelphia Coach Maurice Cheeks, who talked about the postseason into April, four months after the 76ers traded Allen Iverson and everyone else wrote them off for the decade.

Some outcomes are a good deal less likely than others, such as the Lakers getting out of the first round, which they haven’t done since You Know Who left town.

In the big picture, titans are about to collide in the West while the smurfs of the East select one from among them, before the winners (shudder) meet.

The Lakers are a factor only in their dreams, but anything can happen.

A No. 6-seeded team, Rudy Tomjanovich’s Houston Rockets, won a title in 1995.

A No. 8, the Denver Nuggets, toppled a No. 1, the Seattle SuperSonics, in 1994.

Of course, if the Lakers were underdogs last spring when they finished nine games behind the Phoenix Suns, they’re Great Danes now, coming in 19 behind.

A year ago, the Lakers finished on an 11-3 uptick. This season they ended on a 4-8 swoon with Coach Phil Jackson swapping out two starters in the second-to-last game.

Last season, Jackson turned Kobe Bryant loose early while his teammates learned the triangle, then balanced the offense when they picked it up. It almost worked, with Bryant averaging 23 points as the Lakers took that 3-1 lead over the Suns.

This season, they did it backward and not on purpose. They ran the offense with a flourish early but stumbled after losing Lamar Odom and Luke Walton. That prompted Jackson to unleash Bryant again, trying to get over the hump.

They barely cleared the hump but never got their chemistry back, unless you count the season-ending wins over Seattle and Sacramento, after which a giddy Bryant announced to KCAL’s John Ireland, “We’re hot!”

Happily for the Lakers and all the underdogs, there are good reasons why they actually play these games.

What everyone thinks will happen usually doesn’t.

San Antonio and Detroit were expected to meet in last year’s Finals. It turned out to be Dallas and Miami.

Miami was supposed to face San Antonio in the 2005 Finals, but the Heat lost to the Pistons in the East finals.

The Lakers were supposed to walk on the Pistons in the 2004 Finals. Instead, the Pistons won in five games.

Few matchups are as one-sided as they look.

The Suns are clearly better but the Lakers have some things going.

Coaching is much more important in the playoffs when players home in on the game plan and Jackson is one of the great game-planners.

Jackson warmed up in last week’s game at Phoenix by neutralizing the Suns’ pet Steve Nash-Amare Stoudemire pick-and-roll, making Nash pass, then collapsing on Stoudemire, who’s less likely to find an open teammate.

If the Lakers can keep it close, they have the game’s best closer, even if that’s some if.

Everybody projects results from regular-season records, which are meaningless.

Dallas went 0-3 against Golden State with the Mavericks’ former coach, Don Nelson, going even smaller and winding up with a four-guard lineup.

However, it will be pointed out so often, any chance that the Mavericks will take the Warriors lightly will be lost, which isn’t good news for Nelson.

For what it’s worth, this is how the postseason shapes up:

San Antonio and Phoenix are expected to meet in one West semifinal, with the winner meeting Dallas in the West finals.

The East is wide open. Detroit (21-10), Chicago (20-8), Cleveland (18-11) and Toronto (18-11) posted similar records after the All-Star break.

Miami is a wild card after its Title Defense From Hell as Dwyane Wade returns with his sore shoulder for one of his last hurrahs with 35-year-old Shaquille O’Neal.

Figure Detroit playing in one East semifinal and Cleveland in the other. After that, good luck. No matter who wins the West, it should step on whoever wins the East.

That’s the theory. Here come the facts.

mark.heisler@latimes.com

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS

1. DALLAS (67-15) VS. 8. GOLDEN STATE (42-40)

Game 1, Sunday at Dallas, 6:30 p.m. PDT

2. PHOENIX (61-21) VS. 7. LAKERS (42-40)

Game 1, Sunday at Phoenix, noon

3. SAN ANTONIO (58-24) VS. 6. DENVER (45-37)

Game 1, Sunday at San Antonio, 4 p.m. PDT

4. UTAH (51-31) VS. 5. HOUSTON (52-30)

Game 1, Saturday at Houston, 6:30 p.m. PDT