Trading the kid for Kidd isn’t move Kupchak should make

If I’m Mitch Kupchak, I’m praying like crazy that Andrew Bynum ends up more Christina Aguilera than Britney Spears, and I’m losing sleep at night because it’s just so hard to predict how teenagers will turn out.

Kupchak bought stock in a 17-year-old Bynum two years ago, and with Bynum paying some dividends this year the Lakers’ general manager apparently is reinvesting in him. If the Lakers don’t acquire Jason Kidd from the New Jersey Nets by today’s noon trading deadline, it will be at least partly because Kupchak didn’t want to give up Bynum, which would be a billboard-sized message about Kupchak’s faith in him.

Unlike the Clippers’ reluctance to send Shaun Livingston to Philadelphia for Allen Iverson, this makes sense. You don’t give up a 7-footer who’s improving at Bynum’s rate.

Of course, the Lakers could get freaked out over their sixth consecutive loss, this one to the Portland Trail Blazers. But keep in mind, Kidd couldn’t keep his current team from losing to the New Orleans Hornets at home. Also the Lakers’ 24 assists indicate ball movement wasn’t the problem. It’s a defense that let Portland shoot almost 60%.

During a lunch-hour interview Wednesday, Kupchak said any deal was “unlikely.” In his pregame meeting with reporters, Coach Phil Jackson said he didn’t “see a lot of momentum that’s going to create anything right now.”

So it looks as if this is the Lakers’ roster, one that Jackson said “can do some things in this league.” But, he added, candidly, “We don’t think we’re able to make that jump that we have to make to get up there to ... some of the other teams at the elite level.”

Kupchak said he’d only make a trade for a player who could take the Lakers there and wouldn’t merely “tinker” with the roster.

So why not Kidd? On the surface, passing on one of the great point guards in the game to keep a guy with career averages of 5.3 points and 4.4 rebounds makes as much sense as “Lost.”

But let’s look at this scenario. First, there’s the old NBA adage that says you don’t trade big for small and young for old, and making Bynum the centerpiece of a deal for Kidd (who turns 34 next month) would do both.

Second, even though Kidd is a great player, I’m not convinced the Lakers are the best fit for him. Kidd’s always had the ball in his hands. On the Lakers that privilege belongs to Kobe Bryant. Bryant doesn’t like to wait around for other players to set him up; he’d rather create on his own. This season, more than ever, that’s also meant trying to create opportunities for his teammates. To get the maximum from Kidd would, in some way, diminish Bryant’s influence -- not to mention Lamar Odom’s.

Also, when Kidd doesn’t have the ball, his poor shooting means his man could leave him to double Bryant.

The triangle offense is based on the pass, not the dribble drive that is Kidd’s forte. Remember how frustrated Gary Payton was here? It’s functioned fine with the likes of John Paxson and Derek Fisher playing point guard and hitting open jumpers.

Meanwhile, Jackson has won with Shaquille O’Neal at center, and he’s won with Luc Longley. All they need is for Bynum to be something in between.

“We feel he’s got to continue to improve,” Kupchak said. “We don’t want him to be a journeyman. We want him to be a starting player. We think he can be better than that.”

When the Lakers chose him with the 10th draft pick despite a limited high school career, they were confident they had seen enough.

“It was clearly a gamble,” Kupchak said.

What sold him were “the soft hands, the competitive nature. You just can’t get guys that size like that.”

It was the Lakers’ highest draft pick since they took Eddie Jones 10th in 1994. With no salary cap room, this was their one clear shot at getting an impact player as they entered the post-O’Neal era. It was Kupchak’s most significant decision. (I consider the O’Neal trade owner Jerry Buss’ choice, not Kupchak’s.)

So far, no regrets. There isn’t a player selected after Bynum who has come back to haunt the Lakers. In fact, I’d take Bynum over each of the nine players selected ahead of him except for Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

After seeing limited action last season, Bynum was forced into more minutes this year because of Chris Mihm’s season-ending ankle surgery and Kwame Brown’s sprained ankle in December.

Jackson said Bynum has done well with the second unit, but needs to be more aggressive and demand the ball when playing with Bryant and Odom.

Bynum isn’t shaken by hearing his name in the trade rumors. “It feels great,” he said, and he’s heartened by the notion the Lakers don’t want to give him up for Kidd.

“That means they like the growth I’ve made in my time here,” he said.

“I have confidence in myself. I’ve proven that I can play at this level. I think I just need to be more consistent. That’s the biggest thing right now. I have a lot of ups and downs. It just comes with maturing and working on your game more and more.”

The man who wants consistent double-doubles had eight points and seven rebounds Wednesday, which means there’s more work to be done. Here’s hoping he does it in a Lakers uniform.