Michigan subtracted from Rose equation

We the people who take seriously these matters still cannot say with any authority what the Rose Bowl matchup will be Jan. 1, so today we can only celebrate what it won’t be:

Oregon vs. Michigan.

Duck vs. Yuck.

Oregon without injured quarterback Dennis Dixon against a three-loss Michigan making its fourth Rose Bowl appearance since 2003.

Lloyd Carr grunting through, possibly, his last round of bowl-game glum conferences.

The Grand-duddy of them all.

Whew, dodged a howitzer there, but now what?

Ohio State’s 14-3 victory over Michigan on Saturday was supposed to clear up the Rose Bowl picture, but the canvas may yet get another Jackson Pollock treatment.

What we know: Ohio State has earned, at worst, a trip to the Rose Bowl, but the invitation comes with conditions.

“If you’re not doing anything else that day,” Rose Bowl CEO Mitch Dorger joked Saturday. “We’d love to have you . . . if you’re not busy.”

The funniest thing Dorger said, though, was for the public not to worry. He said the Rose Bowl was all but assured a traditional Pacific 10/Big Ten matchup as long as everything goes as expected.

“If the favorites win, it’s a pretty simple answer,” Dorger said.

Oh, you mean, like Ohio State being favored over Illinois, and Oregon being favored over Arizona?

Hours after Dorger spoke, unranked Texas Tech shocked Oklahoma, which had been in line to move up to No. 3 in today’s Bowl Championship Series standings.

OK, maybe the Rose Bowl needs to organize a meeting -- in fact, it’s scheduled for Tuesday -- to sort some of these contingencies out.

Oregon’s loss to Arizona on Thursday night was the first tumbling tumbleweed toward Ohio State working its way back into national title position.

Oklahoma’s loss was the second.

Ohio State fell only from No. 1 to No. 7 in the Bowl Championship Series after last week’s home loss to Illinois.

The Buckeyes should be at least No. 5 when today’s standings are released.

The schools ranked ahead of them will be:

Louisiana State, which beat Mississippi on Saturday but has to play Arkansas next week and then the Southeastern Conference title game.

Kansas and Missouri, both Big 12 Conference members, who meet in Kansas City next Saturday night. The winner will play Oklahoma or Texas in the Big 12 title game in San Antonio.

West Virginia, which has to play Connecticut and Pittsburgh.

If the right combination of schools lose between now and Dec. 1, Ohio State might wiggle back to No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS and earn a trip to the national title game in New Orleans on Jan. 7.

Of the schools ranked ahead of Ohio State, Dorger admitted: “Their footing is in quicksand.”

It appears, at least, that the Pac-10 will provide one Rose Bowl anchor. It appears the Pac-10 team will be either Oregon, USC or Arizona State.

If Arizona State wins its last two games, against USC on Thanksgiving and then against Arizona, the Sun Devils will make their first Rose Bowl appearance in more than a decade.

Unless, of course, Arizona State, at 11-1, jumps Ohio State and makes it to the BCS title game.

If USC beats Arizona State, Oregon will be Rose Bowl bound if it beats UCLA and Oregon State.

You have to wonder, though, if the Ducks are capable of two wins without Dixon, who is lost for the season with a torn left knee ligament.

If USC wins out and Oregon loses once, the Trojans will win their sixth consecutive Pac-10 title and go to the Rose Bowl.

If Ohio State is lost to the BCS title game, however, the Rose Bowl heads out on a fishing expedition.

There probably would be no other Big Ten school qualified with a top-14 BCS ranking, so the Rose Bowl seemingly would need to venture outside the partnership.

Georgia might be available at 10-2 if Tennessee beats Kentucky next week to win the SEC East Division.

The Rose Bowl could consider a 10-2 Texas, or a one-loss Kansas, out of the Big 12.

Or, there is Plan I, which stands for Illinois.

How it works: There is a chance there will not be enough qualified schools to fill all 10 BCS bowl slots.

The BCS, remember, has a rule that states a conference can send only two schools to a BCS bowl game. This week, the Big 12 has four schools in the top 13 while the SEC and Pac-10 each have three.

Hawaii also needs to finish in the BCS top 12 to earn an automatic bid and right now the Warriors are sitting at No. 16 and may have further damaged their chances by needing a last-minute field goal Friday night to beat unranked Nevada.

If there are not enough qualified schools, BCS officials have decided, according to sources, to expand the at-large requirement from top 14 to top 18.

If Ohio State is lost to the BCS title game, that would allow the Rose Bowl to consider taking another Big Ten school.

That school would be Illinois, which upset No. 1 Ohio State last week in Columbus and finished its regular season at 9-3 on Saturday with a resounding win against Northwestern.

Illinois was No. 19 in last week’s BCS standings, but figures to move up at least one position between now and Dec. 1.

Until further notice, the Rose Bowl could still be USC vs. Ohio State, or Arizona State vs. Ohio State in a rematch of the 1997 game classic.

If things really go haywire, it could be Illinois with quarterback Juice Williams, against Oregon, without the electric Dixon.

Only one thing is certain: Two weeks from today, we’ll finally have the right answer.

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chris.dufresne@latimes.com