Disregard instincts at your peril

When people talk about instincts in poker, they’re usually referring to such things as gut feelings and hunches, but that’s only part of it.

“It’s not just what you feel,” world-class pro John Juanda said. “You still have to think about what’s logical in how the hand plays out. It’s instincts, but it’s based on your experience, all the hands you’ve played in the past.”

The next step is to trust those instincts, which isn’t always easy, even for accomplished players such as Juanda.

At the 2009 World Series of Poker $10,000-buy-in main event at Las Vegas’ Rio Hotel, with blinds at $100-$200, Juanda open-raised to $600 from late position with A-J offsuit. The player in the cutoff seat re-raised to $1,500. Juanda called.

Heads up, they took a flop of J-10-A, two diamonds, giving Juanda top two pair and a backdoor flush draw.

“If you raise before the flop and someone re-raises you, that means they’re representing a big hand like kings or aces or A-K,” said Juanda, winner of four WSOP bracelets. “But since I had one ace in my hand and there was one on the flop, I didn’t really put him on aces, so his most likely hand there was A-K or two kings. So I checked, hoping to check-raise him, but he checked too.”

The turn came the 9 of diamonds, completing a potential flush.

“I was still pretty sure I had the best hand,” said Juanda, a pro from the Full Tilt Poker online site. “I bet $3,000, which was almost the size of the pot. When he called me, I put him on kings with the king of diamonds or A-K with the king of diamonds.”

The river came the 3 of diamonds, giving Juanda the third-nut flush. It also gave him something to think about after he checked and his opponent bet $3,500.

“He checked the flop, so he didn’t have that huge of a hand,” Juanda said. “But when he called my big bet on the turn, I should’ve known that he was probably drawing to the flush. He wouldn’t be calling with nothing. He wouldn’t be calling with two black kings or two black queens. I didn’t put him on a straight because if you back up in the hand, he wouldn’t re-raise me before the flop with K-Q. That’s how you put people on a hand, and that’s how you can take certain hands out.”

So Juanda called, and his opponent showed him A-K offsuit, with the king of diamonds for the nut flush, one of the hands that Juanda had put him on.

“I usually go with my instincts,” Juanda said. “That hand, my instinct was to fold. But then he bet and for some reason I second-guessed myself and called. I ended up making the wrong decision.

“That was one of those hands I didn’t play very well because I didn’t go with my read. I should’ve folded on the river.”

Table talk

Backdoor flush draw: Holding one flush card that matches two on the flop, thus requiring cards of that suit on the turn and river to complete the hand.

srosenbloom@tribune.com