Melbourne Man Show

The Australian Open begins Monday (or Sunday if you’re reading this from Los Angeles). It’s the first big tournament of the year, so if there are to be new stars or new trends, well, we just don’t know who they are or what those will be just yet.

But there are carry-over themes. Did the dominant Roger Federer leave for good last year, brought down by mononucleosis and kept (relatively) down because, at age 27, it’s just that time?

Or will he fight back, refreshed, feisty and without the loss of any of the smooth goodness that allows him to appear at the net as if conjured there, knees bent, ready to smash a demoralizing volley with the opponent still at the baseline wondering how Federer moved to the front of the court so quickly?

Is he ready to tie Pete Sampras with 14 major tournament championships?

The women’s game is a little lacking in star power even if it is filled with baseline power. Maria Sharapova’s haughty ground strokes and unabashed desire to win will be missed again as she continues to recover from shoulder injuries that reduced her to a nonfactor after last year’s Australian Open, and Lindsay Davenport is off again, pregnant with her second child.

So what do we have?

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The men

* Where’s Federer? Impenetrable in big moments, or with his confidence and his net game exposed for good after last year’s disappointments?

* Is Rafael Nadal physically and mentally able to hold up to be the favorite not only on his beloved French Open clay but also on the testy Wimbledon grass and in the noisy caldron at the U.S. Open? It’s not easy being No. 1.

* Scottish youngster Andy Murray is gaining currency as a majors threat and there are rumblings his game has suddenly matured. He very much wants to win in Melbourne even if it means he’ll spend the rest of the season with the hopes of Britain weighing him down as Wimbledon approaches.

* What of Andy Roddick? He has taken on another new coach, Larry Stefanki, a former middling player who gained cachet for bringing calm to the chaotic game of talented Chilean Fernando Gonzalez. Roddick is at a crossroads. Was his single U.S. Open championship in 2003 an aberration or does Roddick have enough talent that just hasn’t been harnessed?

* Just a gut feeling, but watch out for 20-year-old Croatian Marin Cilic, who won an Aussie prep tournament and is somewhat reminiscent of Goran Ivanisevic, Croatia’s 2001 Wimbledon champion.

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The women

* Whether Serena and Venus Williams lose in the first round or don’t lose at all and hold up a trophy, neither would be a surprise. Serena appeared in less-than-perfect shape this week when she lost to Elena Dementieva in a prep tournament, but, geez, Serena has been starring in “Million Dollar Password” with Craig Ferguson and host Regis Philbin. Venus, who has never won an Australian Open, did win her tuneup event in Hong Kong. The sisters are on the same side of the draw and could meet in the semifinals.

* Russia’s Dementieva appears to be filled with confidence after winning an Olympic gold medal last summer and two Aussie Open warmups. Usually her serve lets her down at some point.

* Jelena Jankovic is ranked No. 1 but has no major tournament titles on her resume. She needs one and it might be best to get one before Sharapova comes back.

* And even though Sharapova isn’t here, she’ll be talked about. A lot. She and her camera-friendly little dog that stars in Sharapova’s commercials. Commercials are the key. In these tough times, tennis has precious few marketable stars. Sharapova is one of them.

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diane.pucin@latimes.com