It could be one-and-done for Pac-10 on Selection Sunday

The Pacific 10 Conference’s basketball resume includes the first NCAA champion (Oregon), a dynasty that may never be duplicated ( UCLA) and a team that has the longest active streak for appearing in the NCAA tournament (Arizona).

None of which will mean anything when the NCAA tournament selection committee debates which teams will be included in this year’s 65-team field.

The working theory heading into Selection Sunday is the Pac-10 will have no more than two teams — and maybe only one — make a bracket. That may seem like real March Madness to those in the conference, but the Pac-10’s demise could alter the tournament landscape, at least for this season.

“Rather than look at the sub-par performance of another league, I think more about our strength,” Mountain West Conference Commissioner Craig Thompson said. But, he added, “the Pac-10 is not having a good season and that might open some doors.”

Those viewed as, but loathe to be called, “mid-majors” are lining up for their share.

Thompson says the Mountain West has four tournament-worthy teams. The West Coast Conference, viewed nationally as “Gonzaga and the Pips,” received a boost Monday when St. Mary’s won the conference tournament, putting the 18th-ranked Bulldogs in line for an at-large spot.

The Atlantic 10 Conference hopes to ride a sea of change, challenging a sub-par Atlantic Coast Conference for the most teams.

But for the West’s most prestigious conference, there might not be much afterlife beyond the Pacific Life Pac-10 tournament, which begins Wednesday night when Washington State plays Oregon at 8 at Staples Center.

California, the Pac-10’s regular-season champion, is probably NCAA-bound, but this may be a beggar’s ball to get to the “Big Dance” for Arizona State and Washington, the conference’s second- and third-place teams.

“The leagues benefiting from this will be the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West,” West Coast Conference Commissioner Jamie Zaninovich said. “I mean, the Atlantic 10 has four or five teams that should get strong consideration. That’s a beast of a number for a non-BCS conference.”

Pac-10 coaches are lobbying for something as close as possible to the status quo.

Arizona State has a 22-9 record. But during December the Sun Devils were 0-4 against teams currently ranked in the top 25. Arizona State is 54th in the RPI ratings, five spots behind Cornell.

“I’m not in the case-making business,” Arizona State Coach Herb Sendek said. “I do believe our league is a great deal better now than it was at the beginning of the year, and probably much better than we are perceived nationally.”

Others believe what they see. The Pac-10 has a 2-14 record against teams currently ranked in the top 25.

“I think you’ll see the Pac-10 spots divvied up to a couple non-BCS conferences, but a couple extra teams from conferences like the Big 12 and Big East are going to get a better look,” said former St. John’s coach Fran Fraschilla, an ESPN analyst.

That’s fine with Thompson. He sees New Mexico, Brigham Young and Nevada Las Vegas from his conference as locks for the tournament, adding that San Diego State “has made a heck of a case for going.”

For the Pac-10, which has sent six teams to the NCAA tournament in each of the last two seasons, there’s hope that reputation might trump reality.

“The committee tells you they look at teams, not conferences,” WCC Commissioner Zaninovich said. “But never underestimate the human element.”

A year ago, mid-major conferences received only four at-large spots in the tournament, continuing a downward trend from the 12 they received in 2004.

The Pac-10’s history was perceived to have been factor in Arizona’s slipping in at 19-13 last season, extending the Wildcats’ NCAA streak to 25 consecutive years.

But change seems to be in the air, or at least in cyberspace.

Jerry Palm, who runs RPI.com, has only Cal making the NCAA tournament from the Pac-10. Palm has the Bears as a 12th-seeded team, while figuring Gonzaga as a sixth-seeded team and St. Mary’s as a No. 10.

Joe Lunardi, whom ESPN uses as an expert, has two Pac-10 teams in, Cal and Arizona State, which he predicts will be one of the last four teams selected.

“We’ve talked about this over the years, that people don’t follow us very closely in the East,” said Mike Montgomery, who coached Cal to its first regular-season conference championship since 1960. “All comments are being made by people who hear someone else say something, so they follow up by saying the same thing.”

However, more appears to be at work here than word of mouth.

The Pac-10 does not have a team ranked in the top 25 for the first time since 1987. Cal has an RPI rating of 20, while the Big 12, ACC, Big East and Southeastern Conference champions are ranked Nos. 1 through 4.

As a conference, the Pac-10 is eighth in the RPI, two spots below the Atlantic 10 and one below the Mountain West, with the Missouri Valley Conference creeping up from behind.

All of which makes for simple addition, according to Thompson, who said of the Pac-10, “If they get four or five teams, something isn’t adding up right.”

chris.foster@latimes.com

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