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2025 Emmy predictions: best drama actor

Env 0805 Buzzmeter Drama Actor
(Illustration by Lesley Busby / Los Angeles Times; photos from Apple TV+; Hulu; Max)

Though “Severance” leads all shows with 27 nominations and “The Pitt” managed just 14, it’s the ER drama’s star, Noah Wyle, who is the BuzzMeter’s consensus pick here, with “Severance’s” Adam Scott a solid second.

Noting the 26-year gap between nominations for Wyle, Tracy Brown says, “This race is a close one between him and Scott, so I wouldn’t blame you for wanting a second opinion.”

Trey Mangum handicaps it thus: “I don’t think that the winner of drama series will be the winner for lead actor. So, if ‘Severance’ wins series, ‘The Pitt’ will take actor, and vice versa.”

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Matt Roush has Wyle on top, but writes, “Scott’s bravura innie-vs.-outie confrontation in ‘Severance’ is a deserving possible spoiler.”

But Kristen Baldwin isn’t shy about letting the cat out of the bag regarding her expectations: “I think five-time nominee Wyle would have to drown a bag of kittens on live TV to lose this one.”

More predictions: Drama actress / Drama series

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Adam Scott, “Severance”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
4. Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
5. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”

line drawing of a woman

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

T1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
T1. Adam Scott, “Severance”
T3. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
T3. Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
5. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”

“Multifaceted talent Scott deserves the honor for his portrayal of an indentured employee in ‘Severance.’ But the academy loves a throwback, and it’s the first nom for former ‘ER’ heartthrob (now ‘The Pitt’ heartthrob) Wyle in 26 years. Oh, the drama.”

Entertainment Weekly

Kristen Baldwin

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Adam Scott, “Severance”
3. Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
4. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
5. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”

“Theoretically, voters could spread the love by giving this to Scott and awarding drama series to ‘The Pitt,’ but I think five-time nominee Wyle would have to drown a bag of kittens on live TV to lose this one. (Too much?)”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Adam Scott, “Severance”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
4. Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
5. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”

“It’s been 26 years since Wyle was last nominated for an Emmy for that other medical drama, and this time he will be walking away with the award. That said, this race is a close one between him and Scott, so I wouldn’t blame you for wanting a second opinion.”

Shadow and Act

Trey Mangum

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Adam Scott, “Severance”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
4. Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
5. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”

“I don’t think that the winner of drama series will be the winner for lead actor: If ‘Severance’ wins series, ‘The Pitt’ will take actor, and vice versa. So it’s Wyle in this category for me.”

TV Guide

Matt Roush

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Adam Scott, “Severance”
3. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
4. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
5. Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”

“Wyle was nominated multiple times in his breakthrough supporting role on ‘ER.’ Now, as ‘The Pitt’s’ emotionally troubled and dominant authority figure, he should be favored to win at long last — though Scott’s bravura innie-vs.-outie confrontation in ‘Severance’ is a deserving possible spoiler.”

line drawing of a man on a white circle

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Adam Scott, “Severance”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
4. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
5. Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”

“Twenty-six years after his last nomination for playing a doctor (long live ‘ER’), Wyle is back as an Emmy nominee — and prohibitive favorite — for his sensitive portrayal of the beleaguered Dr. Robby on ‘The Pitt.’ It’s his first nomination as a lead.”

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