Advertisement

2025 Emmy predictions: best drama actress

Buzzmeter Drama  Actress
(Illustration by Lesley Busby / Los Angeles Times; photos from Apple TV+; CBS; Max)

Kathy Bates is one of six consensus picks, taking all six first-place votes. Of all the races covered by the BuzzMeter this season, this is the one the panelists most believe to be a lock.

Kristen Baldwin sums up the sentiment thus: “Congratulations, Kathy Bates! And for the rest of you, congratulations on losing to THE Kathy Bates!”

Trey Mangum says, “In a world where she weren’t a contender, the race would be tough to call, because there are arguments for many of the nominees, especially [Britt] Lower and [Bella] Ramsey.”

Advertisement

Lower, who has been on Bates’ heels all season long, takes all six second-place votes. Matt Roush sees possibility there: If there’s a “Severance” sweep, he writes, “Lower’s tricky work in what’s essentially a double role could be an upset.”

Whoever wins, Glenn Whipp says this new, meta “Matlock” has taught a valuable lesson: “Reboots don’t have to be awful.”

More predictions: Drama actor / Drama series

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
4. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
5. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”

line drawing of a woman

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
4. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”
5. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”

“If it were up to me, Horgan would be honored with the Emmys’ curious gold statuette of a winged woman embracing an atom. (What it has to do with television I do not know.) Who will win? The answer is likely Bates or Lower.”

Entertainment Weekly

Kristen Baldwin

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
4. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
5. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”

“Congratulations, Kathy Bates! And for the rest of you, congratulations on losing to THE Kathy Bates!”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
4. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
5. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”

“We all love elderly sleuths and Bates has been a delight as Matty Matlock (wink), an unassuming but sharp-witted lawyer who claims she’s come out of retirement because of her late husband’s gambling debts. Count on the 15-time nominee to add a third Emmy to her trophy case.”

Shadow and Act

Trey Mangum

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
4. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
5. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”

“Bates is winning this. This is her award. But in a world where she weren’t a contender, the race would be tough to call, because there are arguments for many of the nominees, especially Lower and Ramsey.”

TV Guide

Matt Roush

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
4. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
5. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”

“In a rare breakthrough for a broadcast series lead, awards darling Bates has the momentum as the indefatigable star of the cleverly reimagined ‘Matlock.’ If, on the other hand, we witness a ‘Severance’ sweep, Lower’s tricky work in what’s essentially a double role could be an upset.”

line drawing of a man on a white circle

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
2. Britt Lower, “Severance”
3. Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
4. Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
5. Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”

“Bates is the overwhelming favorite to take her third Emmy, which would be a win for broadcast network television and the idea that a beloved actor can take a popular role and make it her own. Reboots don’t have to be awful.”

Sign up for The Envelope

Get exclusive awards season news, in-depth interviews and columnist Glenn Whipp’s must-read analysis straight to your inbox.

Advertisement