Who’s going to win at the Golden Globes (probably)
Coming so close to the Oscars, the Golden Globes movie races draw most of the attention, but it’s the TV winners — who have to walk a good country mile just to get to the stage — who often give the night its most genuine, surprising moments. (Remember Gina Rodriguez’s emotional speech this year?) Thinking ahead, we believe viewers are going to be typing “Mr. Robot” into search engines. That prediction and others follow …
MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
The nominees: “Carol,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Revenant,” “Room,” “Spotlight”
Unless: This group didn’t reward “Birdman” last year, so unless HFPA voters really want to make it right with filmmaker Alejandro G. Iñárritu and go with “The Revenant,” then maybe “Mad Max” could pull off an upset.
LEAD ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
The nominees: Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”; Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”; Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”; Will Smith, “Concussion”
And the winner is: You’ve probably heard DiCaprio has never won an Oscar. He does own a couple Globes, though. This time, he’ll take home one of each.
Unless: Those special edition “Steve Jobs” iPhones that HFPA members have been expecting suddenly arrive in the mail.
L.A. Times film writer Rebecca Keegan and columnist Glenn Whipp discuss those who were nominated for a 2016 Golden Globe and those who were snubbed.
LEAD ACTRESS, MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
The nominees: Cate Blanchett, “Carol”; Brie Larson, “Room”; Rooney Mara, “Carol”; Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”; Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
And the winner is: The “Carol” actresses split the vote and Larson wins for her heart-rending turn in “Room.”
Unless: Globes favorite Blanchett, a nine-time nominee and three-time winner, adds another trophy to her case.
MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY
The nominees: “The Big Short,” “Joy,” “The Martian,” “Spy,” “Trainwreck”
And the winner is: Many Globes voters aren’t thrilled with “The Martian” being placed here. That creates an opening for “The Big Short,” which mixes comedy and tragedy, the type of combo the group has been drawn to over the years.
Unless: Enough members love “The Martian,” no matter its genre, and want to reward it here.
LEAD ACTOR, MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY
The nominees: Christian Bale, “The Big Short”; Steve Carell, “The Big Short”; Matt Damon, “The Martian”; Al Pacino, “Danny Collins”; Mark Ruffalo, “Infinitely Polar Bear”
And the winner is: Pacino and Ruffalo star in movies nobody’s seen. Bale and Carell figure to siphon each other’s support. That leaves Damon, who carries “The Martian” for long, solo stretches.
Unless: Carell takes his second Globe on a big night for “The Big Short.”
The nominees: Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”; Melissa McCarthy, “Spy”; Amy Schumer, “Trainwreck”; Maggie Smith, “The Lady in the Van”; Lily Tomlin, “Grandma”
And the winner is: The HFPA loves Lawrence, but the group seems so-so on “Joy,” giving it only two nominations. We’ll go with Schumer, both for her work and the suspicion that the Globes would like to get in her good graces so she’ll agree to host next year.
Unless: A third Golden Globe for Lawrence! (Yay?)
TV DRAMA SERIES
The nominees: “Empire,” “Game of Thrones,” “Mr. Robot,” “Narcos,” “Outlander”
And the winner is: Coming nine months before the Emmys, the HFPA loves to plant the flag for new shows, going so far as to give this prize to Showtime’s soapy “The Affair” this year. We like USA’s unsettling cyberworld drama “Mr. Robot” to be next year’s newbie darling.
Unless: Voters want to reward “Empire,” which premiered too late to be considered last time.
LEAD ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
The nominees: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”; Rami Malek, “Mr. Robot”; Wagner Moura, “Narcos”; Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”; Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
And the winner is: Malek. Yes, we’re going all in on “Mr. Robot” and Malek for making a paranoid, morphine-addicted hacker into a hoodie-wearing hero for our troubled times.
Unless: The HFPA decides to send Hamm, who, best as we can recall, never wore a hoodie on “Mad Men,” out in style.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
The nominees: Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”; Viola Davis, “How to Get Away With Murder”; Eva Green, “Penny Dreadful”; Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”; Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
And the winner is: Tough call between Balfe, Emmy winner Davis and Henson. Let’s lean toward Irish actress Balfe, “Outlander’s” time-traveling nurse, as voters go global.
Unless: The HFPA wants to honor “Empire” somewhere, and there’s no better spot than this.
Yes, “Mad Max: Fury Road” was nominated. Click through to see more 73rd Golden Globe nomination surprises and snubs.(Open Road Films; Warner Bros.; AMC; Starz)
It’s not often a summer blockbuster is among the mix during awards season, but “Mad Max: Fury Road” earned a nomination in the very competitive drama picture category, edging out films such as “Steve Jobs,” “Bridge of Spies” and “Straight Outta Compton.” Director George Miller was also nominated.(Jasin Boland / Warner Bros. Pictures)
While “Spotlight” was nominated in the drama picture category, none of the film’s actors were recognized. The film’s two other nominations were for directing and screenwriting.(Kerry Hayes )
Perennial Golden Globes favorite Johnny Depp was not recognized for his turn as Whitey Bulger in “Black Mass,” which some consider a more awards-worthy performace than some of his past roles that earned him nominations. “Black Mass” was not recognized in any category.(Warner Bros.)
The Golden Globes haven’t shied away from recognizing new talent when it comes to nominations, but it was still a surprise to see Rachel Bloom of “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” among the nominees for TV comedy actress.(Eddy Chen / The CW)
Another new series to get some love from the HFPA is “Mr. Robot.” The show was among those nominated for drama series, and both Rami Malek and Christian Slater earned acting nods, making “Mr. Robot” one of the top TV nominees.(David Giesbrecht / USA Network)
It should no longer come as a surprise that Netflix is racking up awards nominations, but most did not expect to see “Narcos” in the mix for the very competitive drama series category over shows including “Mad Men” or “House of Cards.” Wagner Moura also earned a nomination in the TV drama actor category.(Daniel Daza / Netflix)
When it comes to Amazon comedy series, “Transparent” tends to get the spotlight, but “Mozart in the Jungle” came out with 2 Golden Globe nominations -- one for comedy series and the other for lead actor Gael García Bernal.(Amazon Studios)
Hulu’s “Casual” was also among the comedy series nominees. Network shows were completely shut out in the category.(Hulu)
It was out with the old, in with the new in many categories, including the highly competitive TV drama actress race.was one of three newcomers in the field for her portrayal of Vanessa Ives in “Penny Dreadful.”(Jonathan Hession / Showtime)
This year’s nominees show the HFPA embracing genre fare that is often overlooked by other awards shows, including “Outlander.” The show is among those nominated in the drama series race, and both Caitriona Balfe and Tobias Menzies were nominated in acting categories.(Neil Davidson / Starz)
That Aziz Ansari earned a comedy series actor nomination for his role in “Master of None” is not as surprising as the fact that only one of last year’s nominees made it back to the list. The rest of the field (including Ansari) is made up of performances for shows in their freshman season.(K.C. Bailey / Netflix)
The last year of “Mad Men” was only recognized in one category. Jon Hamm earned the show’s sole nomination for actor in a TV drama series.(Justina Mintz / AMC)
Perhaps one of the most surprising nominations was the ballet drama “Flesh and Bone” in the limited series or TV movie category. Sara Hay also earned a nomination for actress in a limited series or TV movie. But it wouldn’t be the Golden Globes without a few headscratchers.(Patrick Harbron / Starz)
The nominees: “Casual,” “Mozart in the Jungle,” “Orange Is the New Black,” “Silicon Valley,” “Transparent,” “Veep”
And the winner is: The HFPA hasn’t repeated itself in this category since the heyday of “Glee,” but “Transparent” remains the buzziest nominee of the group.
Unless: Voters shop Amazon for another winner and go with the charming “Mozart.”
LEAD ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
The nominees: Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”; Gael Garcia Bernal, “Mozart in the Jungle”; Rob Lowe, “The Grinder”; Patrick Stewart, “Blunt Talk”; Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”
And the winner is: Again, this isn’t the Emmys. The Globes like to spread the wealth year to year. That discounts the chances of reigning champ Tambor, giving the edge to Bernal, “Mozart’s” impulsive, kooky conductor.
Unless: You could make a case for any of the other nominees, though, unlike Bernal, their shows weren’t nominated. That probably sets up Tambor as a possible back-to-back victor.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
The nominees: Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”; Jamie Lee Curtis, “Scream Queens”; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”; Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”; Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”
And the winner is: You want to know something weird? Louis-Dreyfus, a veritable viking at the Emmys, has never won a Golden Globe for “Veep.” Of the group, she’s the only one from a nominated series. That gives her an edge, I suppose, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the popular Tomlin take the stage instead.
Unless: It is indeed Tomlin. You know she’d give a great speech.
MORE ON GOLDEN GLOBES
From the Emmys to the Oscars.
Get our revamped Envelope newsletter for exclusive awards season coverage, behind-the-scenes insights and columnist Glenn Whipp’s commentary.
You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.