Opinion: The winds of change are blowing in America — just not California’s way

Much like the fabled Santa Ana winds, the California primary blew in from the east and enveloped the state in a prolonged spell of hot air. But whereas the climatological Santa Anas can spark wildfires and ruin, Tuesday’s political windstorm did little to alter the California landscape. If anything, the vote served as a reminder of just how dishwater-dull the Golden State has become.

Most local candidates seemed unaffected by the grass-roots revolutionaries that are Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Looking down the ticket, there was no “Feel the Bern” acolyte who pulled off a primary upset. On the Republican side, 2014 gubernatorial also-ran Tim Donnelly maybe came closest to a “Make America Great Again” comb-over. But his border demagoguery was good for only third place in California’s 8th Congressional District.

The state leadership yawned. Gov. Jerry Brown, perhaps taking his cue from changing voter habits, mailed in his endorsement of Hillary Clinton by issuing a written statement – no video, no news conference, no campaign appearance by her side. The same was true for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. The only elected official not on the ballot but showing energy: the attention-hungry Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a 2018 gubernatorial candidate who’s deeply involved in not one but two November ballot measures (gun control and recreational marijuana legalization). Newsom’s strategy for succeeding Brown: “Leave no camera behind.”

As for California voters, they likewise seemed affected by June gloom. With at least 2 million ballots uncounted, turnout for this year’s Democratic primary may exceed the 5 million votes cast in 2008. But that’s a far cry from the giddy forecasts of 8 million votes or more.

So what’s going on here? Try these culprits.

First, there’s a design flaw in local elections – i.e., too little competition.

Click on the “close contests” link on the California secretary of state’s election site and you’ll discover just nine of 53 congressional races, six of 80 state Assembly contests and 0 of 20 state Senate races to merit that distinction. In only two of those 15 “close” contests did the top two finishers come within 5 percentage points of each other.

Second, there’s the lopsided power dynamic between the two major powers.

For two decades now, California Democrats have dominated state politics top to bottom. When winning is habit-forming, it also grows boring. For Team Blue, getting out the vote in California is mechanical – even in an election featuring three women in the two glamour races.

As for California’s GOP, like Caesar’s Gaul it’s divided into three parts: Republicans who’ll vote for Trump; those who morally object; and a third faction that can’t decide whether to curl into a fetal position or start learning the rules of curling – that fine line between vanquished and Vancouver.

The third factor: political leadership that’s far too familiar – and that flies under the radar.

If you have the opportunity, watch HBO’s “All the Way”, the film adaptation of Bryan Cranston’s Tony-winning Broadway show. It chronicles Lyndon Johnson’s first year in office and his struggles to pass a civil rights law, earn reelection and convince his inner demons that he was more than an accidental president.

The LBJ seen here is a first-class jerk. He begs, bullies and cajoles – sometimes all in the same sentence. He vacillates between self-pity and paranoia. He works more angles than a pool shark.

He’s also the undisputed alpha dog of the post-New Frontier Washington.

It’s the antithesis of Brown’s approach to the job in this, his second life as governor. Brown does run circles around a term-limited Legislature that can’t match him for political experience. Like LBJ, Brown notoriously doesn’t suffer fools gladly.

But what’s missing is a bully pulpit – in last week’s case, a governor unwilling to interject himself into a primary and pump up the volume.

Brown – like Pelosi and Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer (the three have a combined seven decades of state office) – took a pass on a very public conversation about the party’s direction. Where will they be in November when the state’s pondering a host of tricky ballot measures?

Trump’s claims that he’ll turn California Republican in November notwithstanding, the reality is the June primary was California’s political high-water mark in 2016. Sure, Trump and Clinton may return to the Golden State. But they won’t be here for long. It doesn’t take much time to sit down with Jimmy Kimmel or Ellen DeGeneres.

California’s leaders have a choice come the fall: Keep the same low profile as last week, or treat the November election as a shot at redemption.

Bill Whalen is research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, studying California and national politics. Follow him on Twitter @hooverwhalen.

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