New Hampshire primary: What to watch for in GOP race

Of the more than 300,000 ballots expected to be cast in New Hampshire today, a sizable portion will come from a rather narrow geographic range -- mostly south of Concord from the Vermont border to the coast. And yet in this small state there are enough regional distinctions that campaigns must be mindful of in mapping out their strategies.

A statewide result may be called quickly tonight after all the polls close at 8 p.m., with Mitt Romney the expected winner. But in looking for how things will shake out in the competitive race for top also-ran, here’s where to look for clues:

PHOTOS: New Hampshire voters head to the polls

1) Connecticut River Valley: If Huntsmentum is real, the former Utah governor will be racking up strong margins along the New Hampshire-Vermont border. In the campaign’s final days, Jon Huntsman Jr. had stops in the western town of Keene, then headed north to Lebanon in a county where four years John McCain wracked up his biggest margin of victory. Huntsman has also hit more moderate coastal towns near Portsmouth hard this week.

2) The border towns: Make no mistake -- team Romney wants to win big. But the final 48 hours of his campaign were arguably some of his toughest. It’s inconceivable to most that Romney doesn’t win here. And to make sure that’s the case, he’ll need to turn the southern border towns into his firewall. Many of these voters may in fact be backing him for the second or third time -- he did best here in the 2008 primary, and a fair number may be recent transplants from Massachusetts, where Romney was governor.

3) Tea party central: Will Rick Santorum’s post-Iowa bounce fizzle or simply plateau? He may be happy if the final result keeps him in the double-digit terrain he reached in most polls after the surprising caucuses result, considering the limited resources he had to capitalize on it here. And so keep an eye on his margins in a part of the state where the tea party has thrived, in Strafford County towns like Rochester and Somersworth. A key local tea party leader from the former town endorsed Santorum last week after his initial choice, Michele Bachmann, backed out.

4) Hillsborough County: The terrain north of Nashua into Manchester, the state’s largest city, may be the real wild card in determining the final order of finish. More conservative towns like Merrimack might be fertile ground for either Santorum or Newt Gingrich -- the former House speaker visited a polling place there this afternoon. Voters in Bedford, an affluent Republican stronghold, seemed divided between Romney, Huntsman and Gingrich this afternoon. Good turnout in blue-collar wards in Manchester could boost Santorum’s totals.

5) Paul country: If polling is to be believed, Ron Paul could double his statewide share of the vote from his 2008 showing. And if he does, he’ll want to build upon the parts of the state where he ran strongest that year -- primarily towns north of Concord in more sparsely populated portions of Sullivan, Carroll, Belknap and Grafton counties.