Kerry’s 2004 post-debate surge and how it fizzled
When John F. Kerry clearly won his first debate against President George W. Bush in 2004, the Democrat felt his campaign finally lift off the ground.
A bunch of polls showed him surging. “Most concerning” to President Bush, said one wire story at the time, was a Gallup poll that showed Democrat Kerry had moved into a dead heat with the Republican incumbent.
President Bush would remain locked in a virtual dead heat with the challenger for the rest of the race, but push ahead enough, in the end, to win a second term. The recollection of that Republican “comeback,” if it can be called that, now comes as an ironic tonic to jittery Democrats.
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With President Obama slipping in the polls after a weak debate showing last week, they like to hear stories about another distracted incumbent who fumbled on the public stage, yet went on to win a second term.
The Bush recovery did not become apparent immediately. Even after their second debate in 2004, polls still showed Kerry with a fractional lead.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll three weeks out from that election had Kerry 1% ahead among likely voters. But Bush wound up winning the election. In the popular vote he had an advantage of 3 million, taking a second term with 50.7% to Kerry’s 48.3%.
Does that have any bearing whatsoever on what will happen in 2012? We cop out on that one. Stay tuned.
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MORE COMMENTARY FROM JAMES RAINEY
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Presidential debate: Round One goes to Romney, by many measures
Romney on a roll? Remember John Kerry, in debate, beat George W. Bush
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