Racing! A handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as the Accelerate vs. Justify comparison continues to generate discussion.

I’ve got some good news for newsletter readers, Eric (Manny) Sondheimer is pinch-hitting for me the next couple of days. So expect the quality of the newsletter to increase substantially.

It’s not that I don’t want to fill your head with my musings but my wife and I are going to an out-of-town wedding. And, the idea of me pulling out the laptop to review the Del Mar feature race of the day at the reception would not go over well. In fact, I would likely soon be the 4,999,999th in Southern California’s top 5 million most eligible bachelors. (OK, maybe I would be somewhere closer to 4,500,000. Don’t want to sell myself short.)

Wasted enough of your time, already? Yeah, I agree. On to the good stuff, Rob Henie’s weekly handicapping lesson.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper. And, let’s not forget, he gave you the cold exacta last week.

Today’s lesson is from sixth race at Del Mar. Take it away, Rob.

“This is a $16,000 N2L at 6 ½ furlongs. Top selection is JUMP THE TRACKS (#6), not providing much of a price, but does allow for a handicapping lesson here. One of our favorite angles over the years, is, backing a recent maiden winner when facing N2L types next time out. Often, handicappers are averse to the recent maiden wins, preferring those who’ve already been facing winners, but the question should be, why? Consistent hard working recent maiden winners are usually the best type of runners to back with regard to the cheaper N2L type of races, races comprised of only maiden winners. The mentality of many handicappers with regard to these cheap non-winner’s of two events is just so backwards. Here’s why: Many handicappers downplay the recent maiden winner, regardless of the level, giving them less of a shot than even multiple losers at this level, horses who’ve already been defeated at this same N2L condition, many having lost on numerous occasions. Think about that for a minute --why should a horse coming off a possible career catalyst maiden win where confidence was finally gained finishing down the lane in front of the others, be looked at in a more negative light than a horse whose only win to their own credit was also a maiden win, and since then, has lost at this same N2L level, many on multiple occasions? So the question is--would you rather back a proven multiple loser, or a recent maiden winner? This guy did already face N2L types last time out, just missing, but we thought we’d use him as a good example for this ‘lesson.’ SINGLE.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: Runners coming in from Fresno are 0 for 6 on the main track early at the Meet.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 6-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,5

“Negative Notes:

“4 Vintage Hollywood - Broke his maiden in his second start, as our second choice that day 24-1, but that was a brutally poor group. We’re looking to beat here today.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“6 Jump the Tracks - Morning Line 5-2 / WCHR Line 6-5

“TOP PICK: JUMP THE TRACKS (#6 5-2 Delgadillo) *SINGLE*

“SECOND CHOICE: LIVIN ON PRAYER (#8 6-1 Baze)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Accelerate vs. Justify revisited

Got a lot of email on Jeff Tufts’ analysis of Accelerate vis a vis running at 1 ¼ miles and how that shapes up historically. One intriguing email I got was from Stephen Aron, a history professor at UCLA. He also has ownership stakes in some horses, including Like Really Smart, who runs in the third at Del Mar on Sunday. Here are his thoughts on this.

“One of the lessons I try to teach my students is that when making historical comparisons, it is essential to attend to changing times and changing standards, which Mr. Tufts fails to do.

“He champions Accelerate's achievement of winning four grade one races at the ‘classic’ distance of 10 furlongs in a single year, and he points out how few thoroughbreds have accomplished this feat since the establishment of the grading system (and by extension how rare the feat was before 1973). What he does not factor in, however, are the ways in which times and standards have shifted. Although winning Grade 1s at a mile and a quarter now stands as a signal of greatness, in the not so distant past it would not have risen above other measures.

“ ‘Then’ horse of the year titles (and other Eclipse Awards) rested on different standards. For older horses, that could mean winning at a variety of distances, including well beyond 10 furlongs and carrying higher and higher weights in handicaps (In 1974, Forego, to cite an obvious example, didn't win four Grade 1s at 10 furlongs, but he did win eight graded stakes, at distances from seven furlongs to 16 furlongs, while toting 130-plus pounds in several of his races). For 3-year-olds, it meant beating older horses in the fall. And for all horses, it usually entailed running a lot more than seven (Accelerate) or six (Justify) times in a year.

“None of which is to detract from what Accelerate and Justify accomplished in 2018. Viewed by the standards of our day, both Accelerate and Justify did great things this year. But if we want to compare these achievements with those in other times, we need to do so while respecting the context of their days.”

Del Mar review

We thought Friday’s feature was the fourth, the track thought it was the seventh. So, let’s go with Del Mar. Kodiak West won the 1 1/8-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies. Drayden Van Dyke rode the horse confidently, keeping her at a sensible pace eventually getting to second at the top of the stretch before rallying to win by a length.

Kodiak West paid $6.40, $4.20 and $3.40 for trainer Neil Drysdale. Stradella Road was second and Don’t Blame Judy finished third.

Trainer Peter Miller picked up his 1,000th career win when Haydens Havoc, ridden by Van Dyke, won the third race.

Del Mar preview

Del Mar has a sneaky good one on Saturday with a nine-race card starting at 12:30 p.m. What makes it interesting is the eighth race, the Grade 3 $100,000 Bob Hope Stakes for 2-year-olds going seven furlongs. Shocker, but Bob Baffert has the best young one in the race. He has the favorite, at 5-2, Mucho Gusto, who will be ridden by Joe Talamo. Mucho has raced once and won by four lengths at Los Alamitos.

Now, given the colt is going only seven furlongs, and it’s only his second race, while some of Bob’s top-of-the-barn horses are already at or near two turns, makes one think we need to see a little more before deciding if he’s on the Derby trail in earnest. Of course, he’s already ahead of Justify. (I know, ridiculous comparison.) But, we’ll know a little more after Saturday. He was bought for $625,000 by Michael Lund Petersen, who owned Mor Spirit, among others.

I’ve always been fascinated by young horses going seven furlongs. Is it a sprint or a one-turn route? Tough distance.

The second choice is no slouch in Sparky Ville for Jeff Bonde and ridden by Gary Stevens. He’s won two of five, including the Sunny Slope Stakes at Santa Anita. He was sixth in the Del Mar Futurity and second in the Best Pal Stakes. He looks like a keeper, too.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 7, 8, 7, 8, 9, 9, 7, 10.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:47 Aqueduct (8): Grade 3 $200,000 Red Smith Stakes, 3 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Exulting (7-5)

1:42 Woodbine (8): $100,000 South Ocean Stakes, Ont-bred fillies 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Notice Me (8-5)

2:36 Churchill: Grade 3 $100,000 River City Handicap, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Mr. Understood (8-5)

4:00 Del Mar (8): Grade 3 $100,000 Bob Hope Stakes, 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Mucho Gusto (5-2)

6:39 Delta Downs (8): $100,000 Louisiana Legacy, La-bred 2-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Café Du Monde (9-5)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 6 Turnaround (6-1)

Recent maiden claiming winner at Golden Gate was claimed by high-percentage trainer Ari Herbertson, who hits at 39% first off the claim. He ships the sophomore gelding back to Del Mar for this restricted claimer and his early speed should be a big threat at this level.

Friday’s result: K P Pergoliscious lagged early while not getting much pace to run at, rallied wide into the lane and passed only tired horses.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 2 You Can Fly (3-1)

She has the most upside of the three favorites and needs only an alert start to win. She came away very slow when rallying for second in last 330-yard outing vs. the opposite sex while only making her second start since February and gets an additional 70 yards here. The two favorites, Tough To Figure and Maggie Durant, ran perfect races in their last outs and aren’t likely to improve.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

PRINCIPE CARLO had good early speed and dueled outside a rival, took a short advantage between foes midway on the turn, drifted out into the stretch, inched away nearing midstretch, drifted in some in the final furlong and won clear. SWAMP SOUFFLE stalked three deep then bid three wide on the turn, continued outside the winner leaving the turn, was fanned five wide into the stretch and bested the others. BEA'S BOY saved ground stalking the pace, steadied when blocked along the rail nearing the stretch, came out for room into the lane, went around a rival in upper stretch and gained the show. BABY FRANKIE stalked a bit off the rail, angled in briefly on the turn, came out around a foe leaving the turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. IRISH TERRIER was in a good position stalking the pace between horses then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. TWO FIFTY COUP had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, dropped back leaving the turn, bounced of the rail in upper stretch and also weakened.

COLORMEMONEY went up four wide to duel for the lead, re-bid four wide into the stretch, gained the advantage in upper stretch, drifted in some in the drive and held on gamely under left handed urging. DON'T STALK ME stalked outside, ranged up five wide leaving the turn and into the stretch, bid outside the winner, also drifted in some and continued willingly to the end. GRINGO STAR dueled between horses then inched away briefly a bit off the rail leaving the turn, battled just off the inside in upper stretch and held third. BOB'S ALL IN stalked inside then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, went outside a rival leaving the turn, swung four wide into the stretch and was edged for the show. MASTER RULER sped to the early lead then pulled under a hold and dueled three deep between foes, stalked between rivals leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch, drifted in some and weakened. YES I'M READY bobbled some at the break, went up inside to duel for the lead, dropped back leaving the turn and also weakened.

HAYDENS HAVOC had good early speed and dueled inside, took a short lead in upper stretch, inched away under urging in midstretch and proved best. KA'NAH a bit slow into stride, was sent between horses then stalked outside a rival, came out into the stretch and finished willingly. STORMS RIVER chased outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and outfinished foes for the show. TRUCK SALESMAN dueled outside the winner, fought back into the stretch and was outkicked late for third. NICE WORK close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. BOLD ENDEAVOR saved ground in a good position stalking the pace, continued inside in the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. CAECILIUS a bit slow to begin, chased just off the rail then inside on the backstretch and turn, came out some into the stretch and did not rally. THERMAL HEAT dropped back and angled in on the backstretch, saved ground off the pace, came out some in the stretch and lacked a further response.

LAKE TIME stalked off the rail, bid outside the runner-up on the turn and into the stretch, took a short lead nearing midstretch and held on gamely under some urging. DOMINATING WOMAN bobbled slightly at the start, sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then dueled inside on the turn and into the stretch, fought back inside the winner in the final furlong and continued gamely to the end. SPRING LILY stalked outside a rival then three deep into the turn, continued outside a foe on the bend, came out into the stretch, drifted in a bit in the drive and bested the others. STEPH BEING STEPH angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, came out nearing midstretch and lacked a rally. KELLY'S HUMOR settled off the pace inside then saved ground throughout to no avail. LIGHTNING DOVE stalked along the inside, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and did not rally. SMILING TIGRESS chased outside a rival then between foes into the turn, continued just off the rail, swung out into the stretch and lacked the necessary response.

POPPY'S C NOTE stalked between horses then bid four wide between foes on the turn, angled in and put a head in front between rivals into the stretch, fought back under urging off the rail in midstretch and held gamely between horses late. SEA OF LIBERTY broke a bit slowly, stalked outside then bid six wide into the turn, continued five wide then four wide into the stretch, battled outside the winner in the drive and continued willingly three deep on the line. STARRING JOHN WAIN chased inside, came out on the turn and three deep into the stretch, angled in past the eighth pole, had the rider lose the whip a sixteenth out and continued gamely along the inside. ITS FIVE SOMEWHERE stalked between horses then bid three deep between foes into and on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. HAMMURABI'S LAW stalked four wide, bid five wide into the turn, fell back some leaving the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened. FORESTATION close up stalking the pace between horses, bid between rivals into the turn, also fell back some leaving the turn, found the rail in the stretch and also weakened. ULTRA LUCKY sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, dueled along the fence on the turn and into the stretch and also weakened.

MERCER ISLAND stalked off the rail then inside into and on the second turn, came out past midstretch, bid outside the runner-up under urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed,b. FERGUSON sent between horses early, angled in and dueled inside, inched away on the second turn, fought back inside the winner in deep stretch and continued willingly. AVANTI BELLO stalked off the rail then a bit off the fence, bid between horses into the second turn, continued just off the fence leaving that turn and finished with some interest late. ARCH PRINCE chased between horses then a bit off the rail, angled in on the second turn, swung three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. JUST KIDDING four wide into the first turn, angled in and dueled outside a rival then three deep into the second turn, continued three wide into the stretch and weakened. BEANTOWN BOYS chased three deep then outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch and lacked the necessary late kick. CROWN THE KITTEN saved ground off the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and could not offer the needed response. CLEAR THE MINE angled in and settled a bit off the rail, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and did not rally. MUCHOS BESOS five wide into the first turn, angled in and stalked outside a rival, fell back a bit off the rail on the second turn and weakened. COMMA SISTER four wide into the first turn, chased three deep, dropped back on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch.

KODIAK WEST (IRE) stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch, bid three deep under urging a sixteenth out to gain the lead and inched away. STRADELLA ROAD sped to the early lead inside, inched away into the first turn and set the pace inside, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, fought back between foes a sixteenth out and held second. DON'T BLAME JUDY hopped some at the start, saved ground chasing the pace, continued along the rail through the stretch and finished willingly. RETRO saved ground stalking the pace, continued between foes on the second turn, lacked room off heels leaving the second turn and into the stretch and in upper stretch, angled in some past midstretch and could not quite summon the needed late response. K P PERGOLISCIOUS (IRE) between foes early, settled outside a rival, came out on the second turn and five wide into the stretch and was outfinished. NICE ICE angled in and pressed the pace outside the runner-up then stalked a bit off the rail, came out into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SAPPHO (IRE) angled in and stalked outside a rival, went three deep leaving the backstretch and four wide on the second turn, came into the stretch five wide and could not offer the necessary response. PACIFIC STRIKE five wide in the chute, angled in and stalked outside a rival, split horses three deep on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and weakened.

FRIENDLY STEVE sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, came out into the stretch and drew off under some urging. ALPHADAR four wide on the first turn, chased outside then t here deep on the second turn and into the stretch and bested the others. BITTER RING HOME chased off the rail then a bit off the fence, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. BLAZE OF GLORY saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the second turn and into the stretch and lost third late. ELEVATE settled outside a rival, split horses into the backstretch, chased a bit off the rail, came out some in the stretch and lacked a rally. SERVE ME A DOUBLE bobbled at the start, settled off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. ROYAL REBEL chased three deep then off the rail, continued outside on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and weakened. GAME OF ROANS angled in and stalked outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back leaving the second turn and weakened. CALIE VIEW saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back into and on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch. VALIANT stalked outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back fast on the second turn, also gave way and was eased in the drive.