Racing! Rob Henie is back with a handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we learn that McKinzie is going to skip the Pegasus World Cup.

Before we get to our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie, let’s give you a little news from one of our favorite horses. McKinzie, winner of the Malibu Stakes in his last race, will be skipping the Pegasus Work Cup next Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Instead, according to what trainer Bob Baffert said in the past, McKinzie’s next start will be the following Saturday in the Grade 2 $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita. It’s on Feb. 2, the same day as the next 3-year-old Kentucky Derby prep race at Santa Anita, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. It hasn’t been confirmed that McKinzie will go in the San Pasqual, but that was the plan at one time. More when we know.

I’m not sure who is in the San Pasqual but it’s a likely easier field than the Pegasus. Accelerate will make his final start in the Pegasus, which also includes Audible, Bravazo, City of Light and Gunnevera, among others. The Pegasus is no longer the richest race in the world as it took some of the dirt money and created a turf race.

The Pegasus World Cup is worth $9 million and the Pegasus World Cup Turf is worth $7 million. The concept is that owners buy into the race, used to be $1 million, but now it’s $500,000. It hasn’t been an easy sell as last year The Stronach Group had to buy some spots and then worked out a deal with the owners as to distribution of potential purse money.

The new turf race, which I hear no buzz about, has 10 of its 12 slots accounted for as of Friday. I’ll be down there next Saturday reporting for our web and print editions in addition to your favorite newsletter. I’m most interested to see if Frank and Belinda Stronach can be found in the same space together. Last year, they were at the post-race news conference. But, since Frank is suing her for how she’s running the company, things may be a little testy.

And speaking of newsletters, if you haven’t seen our new daily sports newsletter you better get signed up for this one. Houston Mitchell, who also does the Dodgers newsletter, pilots this one most every day and it’s really a good read. And, it hits your inbox at about the same time as this one. Now, if you only have time to read one newsletter, well, the choice is obvious. But, when isn’t two better than one? So, give it a try. Sign up here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the first race at Santa Anita. The floor is yours, Rob.

“The weekend begins with a $25,000 N2L (never won two races) at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf. This isn’t the type of assignment in which a talented runner’s connections say ‘hey, let’s see if we can get him ready for that N2L down the hill.’ This lower condition coinciding with the downhill trip usually consists of two types, either: 1) Declining form, where connections will look for a change of pace, seeking some confidence, moving to the turf trying to find more, or 2) sharp form with connections simply looking for a race regardless of the surface. When you’re going through this field, does one of these ‘categories’ fit the horse you’re looking at? When we look at this group, we see an inflated tag, this is not a $25,000 group, closer to a $12,500 bunch, so do this — change that $25,000 to $12,500. By doing this, we can zero in with more accuracy as to the abilities of the field, and not the listed price. With that in mind, top selection is CALIFORNIA CLONE (#9). First, he strings three races together for the first time since 2016, telling us he’s finding good health for the first time in a long time. He’s got a touch of speed, ideally drawn from this nine hole where runners racing up close are rewarded down the hill, when the course takes a left handed turn shortly into the race. It favors horses on or close up early, and one other note, California Clone fell apart in his only turf effort back in August, yet, they are returning him to the sod, telling us they still believe he’ll go well over it. So, we’ll throw that effort out, especially considering it was followed by a three-month layoff. As for the class perspective, he exits a $12,500 N2L, meaning, he should fit right in after we adjusted that listed condition price down to $12,500. GEORGE FROM TAHOE (#5) is easy to find. He too is stringing three races together, now returning to the sod after two nice tries early in his career. So, he too is finding good health, off a nice recent effort, and if we’re viewing this as a $12,500 N2L, the drop from a straight $25,000 is pretty significant. Again, very easy to find.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: Runners who made their last start at Golden Gate, running on the turf here, they’re 0 for 20 at the Meet (with only one third). In this field, #2 GENTLE PRINCESS and #8 POINT GUARD made their last start at Golden Gate.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 9-5-6

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 2,8

“Positive Notes:

“6 Blitzkrieg – Richard Mandella obviously isn’t enamored with him, but this is a good spot if he’s got anything to offer. Shortening up, Flavien Prat back, healthy.

“Negative Notes:

“3 Rinse and Repeat - Only 5-2 on the morning line, and will take play, but have a hard time backing runners when they often look like the winner turning for home, only to find a way to sputter, often at a short price. This is a good level, but we’re trying to beat.

“TOP PICK: CALIFORNIA CLONE (#9 12-1 Baze) $ Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: GEORGE FROM TAHOE (#5 4-1 Fuentes) $ Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Vote for Horse of Year

Even though the Eclipse award votes are already cast, we’re asking who you think should be Horse of Year. We’ll reveal the results on Tuesday. Wait, I thought you said Thursday? Well, I forgot there is no newsletter on Thursday because there is no racing. Anyway, back to the voting. It’s Accelerate vs. Justify vs. Monomoy Girl. Don’t worry, all three will win an Eclipse. To vote, just click here.

Santa Anita review

Santa Anita took the two races it had on the turf and moved them to the dirt. The dirt track was in pretty good shape despite getting more than five inches of rain this week. Turf racing, at least on the main oval, should return on Saturday.

Friday’s feature was an allowance for older Cal-breds going a mile. It was worth $57,000. California Journey went to the lead and never looked back, winning by a comfortable 2 ¼ lengths. The Jerry Hollendorfer trained gelding paid $6.20, $2.80 and $2.40. Ground Attack was second and Acclimate was third. Mario Guiterrez was the winning jockey.

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita is trying to play catch-up by adding extra races to replace those lost on Thursday’s card. There are 10 races starting at noon. There are four turf races (we hope), six claiming races, two maiden specials and an average field size of 7.9. So, we’ll call that 8.

Best of all, the feature is the Grade 2 $200,000 Palos Verdes Stakes for older horses going six furlongs. The reason it’s a treat is you get to see two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Roy H. The 7-year-old gelding has won eight of his last 11 and is the defending champion in this race. He’s the 4-5 favorite for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Paco Lopez, who picked up his first Breeders’ Cup win this past November.

The second favorite, Kanthakaat 4-1, has his best days ahead of him but likely not in Roy H’s caliber just yet. The 4-year-old colt is three-for-seven lifetime, all wins at Santa Anita. He won the Laz Barrera Stakes but then finished eighth in the Malibu last out. He’s trained by Hollendorfer and ridden by Flavien Prat. Post is about 4:05 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10, 7, 6, 7, 8, 7, 7, 10, 7, 10.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:15 Gulfstream (4): $100,000 Sunshine Millions Sprint, Fla-breds 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: X Y Jet (3-5)

11:15 Gulfstream (6): $150,000 Sunshine Millions Turf, Fla-breds 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles turf. Favorite: Big Changes (8-5)

11:26 Aqueduct (5): Grade 3 $100,000 Toboggan Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Gold for the King (7-5)

12:10 Tampa Bay (7): $125,000 Pasco Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Win Win Win (5-2)

1:10 Tampa Bay (9): $125,000 Gasparilla Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Bella Ciao (7-2)

1:15 Gulfstream (10): $150,000 Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf, Fla-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles turf. Favorite: Starship Jubilee (9-5)

1:47 Gulfstream (11): $200,000 Sunshine Millions Classic, Fla-breds 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Souper Tapit (2-1)

2:51 Fair Grounds (10): $125,000 Col. E.R. Bradley Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles turf. Favorite: Great Wide Open (2-1)

3:20 Fair Grounds (11): $150,000 Silverbulletday Stakes, filies 3-years-old, 1 mile, 70 yards. Favorite: Liora (5-2)

3:49 Fair Grounds (12): Grade 3 $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile, 70 yards. Favorite: Plus Que Parfait (9-2)

4:04 Santa Anita (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Palos Verdes Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Roy H (4-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 4 Tigerbeach (3-1)

Good, competitive downhill race for starter allowance runners and I like the chances of this 4-year-old gelding from the Billy Morey shedrow. He ran a good second after racing 3-wide throughout when sent one mile in his SoCal debut and should relish the cutback in distance while tactical enough to secure a good spot early.

Friday’s result: We Will Re Joyce (5-1) set a pressured pace from the inside and cracked in mid-stretch. Six furlongs is probably farther than she wants to run against this level.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 6 Royal Tricky Lady (2-1)

She is the field’s lone class dropper and switches to the far outside post where she has had much prior success. She moved nicely too late when third from the number two post in last start vs. one-length winner Be Quiet, who since ran second for $16,000. In two starts from the outside post last year, she recorded one win and one second. Her main contender is #2 Freighttrain Blues, a quick breaker in search of his third straight victory. He is the lone male in this field. Key #6 Royal Tricky Lady in the Pick 4 and Pick 3 and make a 2-6 exacta box.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

REACHREACHREACH broke out a bit, stalked between horses then three deep, continued outside a rival on the turn and three wide into the stretch, took the lead outside the pacesetter in midstretch and inched clear late under left handed urging. MISS LADY ANN a bit slow to begin, stalked between horses then a bit off the rail leaving the turn, went around a rival in midstretch and gained the place late inside. RON'S CAT sped to the early lead outside a rival, inched away leaving the backstretch, set the pace off the rail, drifted out some into the stretch, battled inside the winner in midstretch and deep stretch and lost second between foes late. MERITOCRACY broke outward, stalked four wide then off the rail leaving the backstretch and outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for the show three deep on he line. IMMINENT had speed inside then saved ground stalking the pace throughout and weakened in the final furlong. ATHLEISURE saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and also weakened. NOISE MANDATE chased a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and in the stretch and had little left for the drive, then was unsaddled on the clubhouse turn and vanned off. HAND TIMED.

IMPERIAL CREED chased a bit off the rail, came out into the backstretch, angled in some on the second turn, shifted out into the stretch, rallied under urging to bid outside the runner-up in deep stretch and gained the advantage late. SASS MACHINE broke out some, stalked the early pace just off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the backstretch and second turn, took a short lead leaving that turn, bumped with that one into the stretch, fought back alongside that one in the drive then inside the winner in deep stretch and was edged nearing the wire. DESERT TRIP sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the backstretch and second turn, drifted out a bit to bump with the runner-up into the stretch, fought back along the fence in the stretch and weakened in the final sixteenth.

VENICE sent between foes then inched away and set the pace just off the rail, dueled between horses into and on the turn, drifted out a bit into the stretch, fought back under left handed urging to regain the advantage a sixteenth out and gamely prevailed. WHATA FLIRT stalked early then bid three deep leaving the backstretch and on the turn, was fanned out a bit into the stretch, took a short lead outside the winner in midstretch but could not quite match that one in the final sixteenth. SPACERIKA also stalked early then bid between rivals into the turn, battled inside on the turn and into the stretch and held third. GREY TSUNAMI tracked the pace inside then bid along the rail into the turn, stalked again along the inside on the turn and weakened in the stretch. WEATHER MARKET chased a bit off the rail then between horses on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. TELL MY FORTUNE stalked outside on the backstretch and three deep on the turn and into the stretch and also weakened.

SELLWOOD stalked off the rail, bid three deep on the backstretch then outside the runner-up on the second turn and between foes nearing the stretch, took a short lead into the lane, battled between horses and inched away late under a left handed tap of the whip and a strong hand ride. ENGLANDER stalked just off the inside then bid between horses on the backstretch and a bit off the fence on the second turn and in the stretch and held second. CAJUN TREASURE chased off the inside, bid outside the top pair leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch, battled outside those foes through the drive and was edged for second. THE DADDY FACTOR went up inside then pulled his way to the early lead into the first turn, dueled inside, dropped back into and on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch. ENGLANDER wore calks.

LI'L GRAZEN chased outside a rival, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch, rallied under some urging while drifting in a bit to gain the lead in deep stretch and proved best. CHASIN LUCAS had speed between foes then dueled outside a rival, put a head in front leaving the turn, inched away in the stretch, drifted to the inside in the final furlong and was caught late. SAPPHIRE KID saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and bested the others. SHYLOCK EDDIE chased just off the rail on the backstretch and turn, came out some in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. WE WILL RE JOYCE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. TORENO had speed three deep then stalked off the rail, continued outside a rival on the turn and three wide into the stretch and also weakened.

CIOPPINO PASADINO dueled three deep between foes then outside the runner-up on the turn, was fanned out some into the stretch, inched away under urging in the drive and won clear. LOVELY LINDA had good early speed and dueled between horses then inside on the turn, drifted out into the stretch, drifted out again in deep stretch to bump a foe and just held second. HERO FOR HIRE chased just off the rail, lugged out and was in tight off heels midway on the turn, came out in the stretch, was fanned out and bumped late. FORTHENINETEEN broke behind the field, settled just off the rail then inside on the turn, came out into the stretch and improved position. IRISH AND LUCKY went up inside to press the pace then stalked along the rail on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. CIAO LUNA chased off the rail then outside a rival, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and also weakened. CHARMING ALEXIS prompted the pace four wide then stalked off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch, drifted in late and had little left for the drive. Following a stewards' inquiry, LOVELY LINDA was disqualified and placed third for interference in late stretch.

CALIFORNIA JOURNEY sped to the early lead, angled in on the first turn and set the pace inside then dueled along the rail, inched away under urging in the stretch and won clear. GROUND ATTACK came off the inside on the first turn to stalk the pace, angled out into the stretch and gained the place. ACCLIMATE pulled and stalked off the rail then outside a rival, bid three deep on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and held third. NAP LAJOIE a bit washy at the gate, angled in and had speed outside the winner then stalked on the first turn, bid between foes to duel on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. PLAIN WRAP a bit slow to begin, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace and had little left for the stretch. SPEND IT chased off the rail then inside on the backstretch and into the second turn, came out leaving that turn and into the stretch and gave way. ACCLIMATE wore calks.

SECRET TOUCH sped to the early lead, inched away on the first turn and set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the backstretch and second turn, fought back to a short lead under urging in the stretch and gamely prevailed. KRISTI'S COPILOT had speed outside the winner then stalked off the rail, bid between foes to duel for command on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch, fought back outside the winner in the final furlong and was outgamed. CLEAR THE MINE three deep into the first turn, stalked then bid three wide on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and held third. TOUGH IT OUT stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed response. PLUM DANDY chased off rail then outside a rival, came out into the stretch and weakened. TOUGH IT OUT wore calks.