Racing! Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Top 10

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we deal with another crisis in the Stronach family.

If it’s Friday, it must be time for Jon White’s Derby Top 10. It’s a must read for anyone who is interested in the road to the Kentucky Derby. Take it away, Jon.

“Even before Coliseum made his first start, he had created a buzz. In the Nov. 11 edition of this newsletter, John Cherwa listed early Kentucky Derby odds that had been put out by the betting company Bovada. Game Winner was the 8-1 favorite, with Instagrand next at 16-1. Though Coliseum had not raced yet, he was 20-1, along with Improbable, Knicks Go and Rowayton.

“Considering all the hype, it was not surprising that Coliseum was pounded down to 1-2 favoritism when he debuted at Del Mar on Nov. 17. The Bob Baffert-trained Tapit colt dashed to the early lead and drew away in the stretch to win emphatically by almost seven lengths.

“However, Coliseum lost both starts following his career debut. He finished sixth as a 3-5 favorite in Santa Anita's Sham Stakes on Jan. 5. And then in last Sunday's San Vicente Stakes, he lost again as an odds-on favorite. Sent off at 7-10 in the San Vicente, Coliseum finished third, 6 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Sparky Ville, who nosed out Dessman.

“Coliseum closed at odds of 22-1 last Sunday in round two of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The 5-1 favorite among individual horses was Game Winner. Hidden Scroll and Improbable each were 7-1, with Instagrand at 10-1 and War of Will at 17-1. The other 19 individual horses were 22-1 or higher. Closing as the favorite was the ‘all others’ option.

“Early this week, Daily Racing Form's Brad Free reported that, according to Baffert, Coliseum is off the Kentucky Derby trail. But Baffert continues to hold a strong hand for the May 4 Run for the Roses with three horses occupying spots on my Kentucky Derby Top 10: No. 1 Game Winner, No. 2 Improbable and No. 8 Mucho Gusto.

“Eclipse Award winner Game Winner worked five furlongs Wednesday in 1:01.20 at Santa Anita. Improbable also had a workout Wednesday at the Great Race Place, going six furlongs in 1:12.80. According to Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, Baffert has Game Winner and Improbable ‘under consideration’ for the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 9 and Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 16. ‘One will stay here at Santa Anita, the other will travel,’ Privman reported, adding ‘Mucho Gusto also is under consideration for one of those spots.’

“War of Will, No. 5 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, returns Saturday in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. War of Will lost his first four career starts, all on the grass. Since being switched to the dirt, he is two for two. War of Will won the Lecomte Stakes by four lengths in New Orleans on Jan. 19 while making his 2019 debut. Mark Casse trains War of Will. Casse has gone so far as to say he believes the War Front colt ‘is an absolute superstar.’

“The 1 1/16-mile Risen Star offers qualifying points of 50-20-10-5 for the first four finishers toward the Kentucky Derby. The Risen Star has attracted a bulky field of 15, but at least one entrant definitely is not running. Baffert tweeted last Sunday that Kingly would not be making the trip to Louisiana. It turns out that Kingly instead competes in Saturday's El Camino Real Derby, which will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on Golden Gate's synthetic surface. The El Camino Real Derby, in which 13 are entered, has 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs, as does Monday's 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The winner of the El Camino Real Derby also automatically earns a spot in the starting gate for the Preakness Stakes on May 18 if they have been nominated for the Triple Crown.

“Kingly has started twice. He won a maiden race at Del Mar on Dec. 1, then ran second to the promising Extra Hope in an allowance/optional claiming race on a sloppy track Jan. 31 at Santa Anita. Kingly is a half-brother to New Year's Day (the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, who also was trained by Baffert) and a full brother to Mohaymen (a multiple graded stakes winner).

“Here are this week's rankings:

1. Game Winner (1)

2. Improbable (2)

3. Instagrand (3)

4. Hidden Scroll (4)

5. War of Will (5)

6. Mucho (6)

7. Signalman (7)

8. Mucho Gusto (8)

9. Omaha Beach (9)

10. Vekoma (10)

NOTE: Last week's rankings in parentheses

“The only race last week that had Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1) was the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Well Defined led from start to finish and won by 2 3/4 lengths at odds of 7-1 for trainer Kathleen O'Connel. Knicks Go, the 9-5 favorite, finished fifth while making his first 2019 start.”

Love them Stronachs

The Globe and Mail in Canada reported the latest on the Stronach famiy feud. It seems as Selena Stronach, 18, has filed suit against Auntie Belinda so that Selena can continue her lifestyle and avoid those nettlsesome first-world problems.

According to Globe and Mail, Selena, and her mother Kathleen, get “$15,000 (Canadian) a month in direct transfers from the family’s private holding company, TSG, plus unrestricted use of credit cards, and private jet flights for monthly vacations at five- and six-star hotels.” And she wants to keep those perks of being a Stronach.

Selena owns a ranch where she raises show cattle for county fairs. Court documents say “the operation is expensive to run.” Well, yeah.

Now, Kathleen is getting a divorce from Andrew Stronach, who is Frank’s son and by extension Belinda’s brother. Andrew, just like his dad, has filed suit against Belinda for “serious misconduct” running the TSG company. Got it?

Now, I’ve pondered how we, as caring Americans, should handle this to make sure Selena can continue to raise those cattle and live the lifestyle she is enttled to. A GoFundMe page is kind of passe. Or they could put out barrels or cups where people could drop in their change or dollars. Maybe even have some slots under the teller windows like they do at McDonalds.

So, and this will take some cooperation from the CHRB and TOC, how about we change the option on winning tickets on self-serve machines and rather than making a contribution to race horse aftercare, we could have the option to donate to Selena’s current care. I mean the cost of jet fuel is on the rise.

Anyway, just a thought.

Santa Anita review

The feature race on the wet, soggy Santa Anita track was the eighth, 5 ½ furlong maiden special for 3-year-olds running for a $55,000 purse. What it turned out to be was a case of upside-down land. Here are the the prices of the horses as they finished 1-8: $12.20, $26.50, $26.40, $20.20, $55.80, $6.30, $0.40, $6.10.

The winner was Bump Bailey, a first time starter for Peter Miller and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. He paid $26.40, $12.20 and $9.60. Grit and Curosity was second and Duchamp was third and both were also first-time starters.

Santa Anita preview

Things on Friday aren’t a whole lot better than Thursday. There is a light rain in the morning that is supposed to become more steady in the afternoon. Given how water logged the turf course is, what does that mean for the three turf races currently scheduled? Probably not good for the featured 6 ½ furlong race down the hill. But, the weather can change but can the turf course dry out in time to be safe? It’s an eight-race card starting at 12:30 p.m.

It’s not the best of cards and it has an average field size of 7.1. The race with the biggest purse--$57,000--is the seventh, as mentioned, 6 ½ furlongs down the hillside turf course for Cal-bred and Cal-sired fillies and mares 4 and up. The favorite, at 3-1, is Donut Girl for trainer Hector Palma and jockey Flavien Prat. She is two-for-six lifetime but hasn’t run sice Aug. 9 at Del Mar when she finished third.

Judicial, at 7-2, is the second favorite. She’s a Washington-bred but Cal-sired. She is one-for-seven- lifetime and hasn’t won since her maiden win on Jan. 27 of last year. Mark Glatt trains and Rafael Bejarano rides.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 6, 7, 7, 9, 7, 9, 7.

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 3 R Cha Cha (3-1)

Comes off a sloppy track win for leading trainer Doug O'Neill and should be tough right back as he returns at the same level. He appears to have a pace advantage over his main rivals and has strung together four good efforts since being claimed by this barn. Will have to hold off sharp Conqueror and Conquest Cobra, who seem like the exacta contenders.

Thursday’s result: High Five was scratched from the eighth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“Los Alamitos starts three nights of racing with an eight-race program at 7 p.m. on Friday night. Three allowance races will be part of the $2 Pick 6 sequence, with a carryover of $7,293. With new money the total pool figures to be around $25,000.

“Friday’s feature comes in the final leg of the Pick 6, as eight sophomores will meet in the $13,400 allowance test at 300 yards. The field will be headed by the James Glenn, Jr.-trained Hot Little Kiddy, who’ll make her first start since a fifth n the Governor's Cup Futurity on July 28. The Kiddy Up filly won her trial to that futurity by 1 1/4 lengths and returns after an 18.40 second work at 350 yards on Jan. 11.

“’She wasn’t paid into any of the late futurities so we decided to just give her time off,’ Glenn Jr. said. ‘We’re pointing her to the La Primera Del Ano Derby trials on March 9.

“Thermonuclear Energy, fresh off her victory in the Grade 1 Charger Bar Handicap on Jan. 6, will headline a terrific field of mares in the running of the $25,000 Denim N Diamonds Handicap at 350 yards on Saturday.

“Ridden by Eduardo Nicasio for trainer Chris O'Dell, Thermonuclear Energy beat a field that included 2018 AQHA champion aged mare One Sweet Racy and stablemate and multiple stakes winner A Political Lady at 400 yards.

“The Denim N Diamonds offers another strong challenge, as Thermonuclear Energy will need to be sharp out of the gate at this shorter distance while taking on defending winner Strawfinders Jessee and stakes winners Tough To Figure and On Our Way.

“’I think what’s helped Thermonuclear Energy a lot is that we’ve bred her a couple of times,’ O’Dell said. ‘She’s gained weight and has done well. We’re going to run her in the Denim N Diamonds Handicap and then breed her again. If she wins the Denim N Diamonds you almost can’t quit with her. We’ll have to come back and keep running her this year.’

“Sunday’s feature is the $101,000 Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes for 3-year-olds at 350 yards. Horses had to have been maidens as of Dec. 1 in order to be eligible for these trials. Ridden by Jesus Rios Ayala for trainer Justin Joiner, Apollitical Flying was a maiden coming into this race, but he came away from his trial not only a winner but also the fastest qualifier.

“’He’s a slow learner,’ Joiner said. ‘It’s taking him a few races. This horse has also had to run against tough horses in Grade 1 futurity trials. This Maiden Stakes is a perfect thing for him. It gave him a place that he fit in nicely.”

“Ed Allred became the first owner to win 1,500 quarter-horse races when Oatie Three won the fifth race last Friday night. His next two milestones are stakes wins, as he is two away from 100, and money earned as he is about $250,000 away from $20 million for his career. Allred is quarter-horse racing’s all-time leading owner in wins and earnings.

“In the Winter Series, big favorite Powerful Favorite, owned by Rosenthal Ranch, cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Derby last Saturday. Then on Sunday evening, Jim Walker’s Zoomin For Spuds became only the fifth horse to qualify to the Champion of Champions at least four times when he won the Grade 1 Brad McKinzie Los Alamitos Winter Championship. Refrigerator and Jess You And I ran in the Champion of Champions five times while Whosleavingwho and Heza Dasha Fire are the others to have raced four times in the prestigious 440-yard race. The Champion of Champions will be held Dec. 14.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 6 The Divas Dynasty (5-1)

She will be facing a quality eight-horse field that includes four male rivals. The filly enters this race after a much better than looked runner-up effort against an impressive winner (Walk On By Blues) who absolutely relished the wet fast racing surface on Jan. 6. The Divas Dynasty broke over a length slow in that race to give the eventual winner a huge early advantage, but after the tough beginning, this entrant finished fairly well for a solid runner-up effort. A clean start is always key, but either way The Divas Dynasty figures to be a late threat in this race and an attractive medium price.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

ACED stalked outside a rival then off the rail, bid outside the runner-up leaving the turn, took the lead in the stretch and inched away late under urging. SPANISH BAY sped to the early lead, set the pace along the inside, fought back in the stretch, could not match the winner late but was clearly second best. SCRAMBLED chased outside a rival then off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and bested the others. THE DADDY FACTOR a step slow to begin, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and lacked a response in the stretch. MOLAF settled off the rail, angled in on the turn, came out into the stretch and did not rally. PERSUASIVE CAT stalked a bit off the rail, came out leaving the backstretch, angled in a bit off the fence on the turn and weakened. PERSUASIVE CAT, MOLAF and SCRAMBLED wore calks.

BIG BASE stalked outside a rival then inside, came out on the turn and three wide into the stretch, bid three deep under left handed urging to gain the lead approaching the sixteenth pole and proved best. AWESOME AMANDA angled in and dueled outside a rival, took a short lead in the stretch, battled between horses past midstretch, could not quite match the winner late but continued willingly. WHATA FLIRT sped to the early lead, dueled inside, fought back a bit off the rail in the stretch and bested the others. PERFECT PORTRAIT saved ground chasing the pace throughout and weakened in the drive. ENCOUNTRESS stalked three deep then outside a rival leaving the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. SPACERIKA chased between horses, dropped back off the rail on the turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch but did walk across the line and was walked off. PERFECT PORTRAIT and SPACERIKA wore calks.

PLATINUM EQUITY stalked three deep then off the rail, bid three wide on the second turn to gain a slim advantage, inched away under urging in midstretch, fought back outside the runner-up in deep stretch and edged away again late. TWIRLING TIGER dueled outside a rival then between horses on the second turn, fought back inside the winner in deep stretch and could not quite match that one late. ELWOOD J had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the second turn and into the stretch and just held third. MIDNIGHT SOOT chased off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and was edged for the show. MUCHOS BESOS settled a bit off the rail then inside, was roused just off the fence on the second turn, came out in the stretch, gave way and was eased in the final furlong.

MIDNIGHT LILLY saved ground stalking the pace, split horses leaving the second turn, bid inside past midstretch, gained the lead under left handed urging in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. SOUGHT MORE PEP three deep early, pressed the pace outside a rival, took the lead and edged clear just off the rail on the second turn, fought back outside the winner in deep stretch and held second. CIAO LUNA four wide into the first turn, chased outside, went four wide into the stretch and gained the show. SHARP HOLIDAY stalked inside then a bit off the rail into and on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. DURANGA broke behind the field, pulled between horses and had the rider lose the whip into the first turn, stalked between foes, was in a bit tight leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch, drifted in and did not rally. LEA'S REWARD three deep early, stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. SHE BEGAN AGAIN five wide into the first turn, stalked outside then three deep, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. SEA GLASS four wide into the first turn, angled in and chased a bit off the rail to the stretch, came out some and weakened. BLOOMING HANNAH had speed between horses then angled in and dueled inside, dropped back on the second turn and had little left for the stretch. LEA'S REWARD wore calks.

BOOLICIOUS broke a bit slowly, stalked off the rail then bid four wide leaving the backstretch and three deep early on the turn, angled in and took a short lead outside a foe leaving the turn and into the stretch, inched away under urging in midstretch and held gamely. DADDYS REAL DIVA stalked inside, bid along the rail leaving the backstretch, was shuffled back into the turn, came out for room into the stretch and finished willingly. RIDE OUT THE STORM stalked outside a rival, bid three deep between horses leaving the backstretch and into the turn to take a short lead, angled in and fought back inside leaving the turn and into the stretch and bested the others. BLUEGRASS BETTY sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail, dueled between horses leaving the backstretch and into the turn, dropped back outside a rival leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. STARSHIP SKY chased outside then off the rail, dropped back into and on the turn and had little left for the drive.

DISTINCTIVE B stalked four wide then bid outside the runner-up to press the pace, took the lead into the stretch, inched away under urging in midstretch and proved best. ALLABOUTACTION sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then dueled along the rail, fought back into the stretch and held second. JAN'S RESERVE a bit slow to begin, stalked inside then a bit off the rail, came out in the stretch and just held third. DON'T STALK ME broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, came out in upper stretch and was edged for the show. ADENS DREAM stalked between horses then outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. ANNIE'S CANDY chased outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch and a bit off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and lacked the necessary response. ITALIANO settled outside, chased three deep on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and did not rally. STREET VISION stalked between horses then three deep, dropped back and angled in some on the turn and gave way. STREET VISION wore calks.

MISS FIA stalked off the rail, went three deep leaving the turn, gained the advantage outside a foe into the stretch and won clear under urging. RATHER NOSY chased three deep then off the rail, split horses leaving the turn and into the stretch and was clearly second best. TIME FOR SUZZIE saved ground chasing the pace, came out on the turn and three wide into the stretch and gained the show. TWIRLING DEVON settled inside then outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and improved position. DATA STORM KITTY angled in and dueled outside a rival, took the lead on the turn, inched a way leaving the turn, fought back a bit off the rail into the stretch then drifted in and weakened. JUST SPLENDID chased between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. DIOSA had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, fell back leaving the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. KATE'S PRINCESS broke a bit slowly, went up inside then stalked a bit off the rail, was between horses leaving the turn and three wide into the stretch, drifted in and had little left for the stretch. MISS FIA wore calks.

BUMP BAILEY had good early speed and angled in, set a pressured pace outside a rival, then inched clear on the turn, continued a bit off the rail into the stretch, drifted in and won clear under some urging and steady handling then a hold late. GRIT AND CURIOSITY broke inward, pulled between horses and steadied leaving the backstretch, was in a bit tight into the turn, split rivals on the turn, came out some in the stretch and clearly bested the others. DUCHAMP broke a bit slowly, angled in and settled inside, came out into the stretch and finished with interest for the show. OF GOOD REPORT saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and lacked a rally. CALL YOU TOMORROW went up inside to press the pace, stalked along the rail on the turn and weakened in the drive. CHARMER JOHN stalked four wide then three deep on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. STRETFORD END close up stalking the pace between horses, fell back just off the rail leaving the turn and also weakened. BOWL OF SPAGHETTI chased outside a rival on the backstretch and turn, came four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.