Racing! A handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as all we can say is, “I ran a pretty nice race, didn’t I Mr. and Mrs. Cleaver? ... And aren’t you two looking very nice today.” (read down)

Couple of quick items before we get to our weekly handicapping lesson. First up, the stewards weren’t very busy in early February as they only issued one ruling between Feb. 7-10.

Stewards’ ruling

--Trainer Lorenzo Ruiz was fined $400 for being late in declaring his horse, Great Ma Neri, out of the fifth race on Feb. 10. Ruiz said he didn’t ship the horse to the track because he thought the turf race would be moved to the dirt because of weather.

Santa Anita posts

Santa Anita has ever so slightly adjusted its first post times. For cards of nine or less races, the start is scheduled for 1 p.m. Cards with 10 or more races will start at 12:25 p.m. Of course, if they have a really big card it could be even earlier.

The five-minute earlier start is to give the track a little breathing room so its simulcast signal doesn’t interfere with other big tracks. Of late, Santa Anita and Aqueduct have been a little too close for, certainly, TVG’s tastes.

Of course, as a journalist, I wondered if it was in anyway related to the new “Santa Anita drag,” where the clock hits zero about four minutes before they start loading the horses. The answer is not really.

If you look at actual first race start times for last week, here’s what you got: Thursday 12:34, Friday 12:34, Saturday 12:11 (late gate incident and scratch), Sunday 12:32, Monday 12:35. And, I picked a random week, Jan. 10-13, before the “drag” was initiated and here’s what you got: Thursday 12:32, Friday 12:31, Saturday 12:34, Sunday 12:34.

So, statistically, there really is no difference. Hopefully the extra five minutes will align all the racing planets so we don’t get tracks stepping on each other. And, as we often say, absolutely anything can screw up a scheduled post time. It’s really only a suggestion, not a rule. (Unless network television is involved.)

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

This lesson is from Saturday’s 10^th race at Santa Anita. Rob, take it away.

“An optional claimer at 1 ⅛ miles on the turf, a distance which really helps cut to the chase, meaning, we can usually decipher pretty accurately the intentions and reasoning for most runners in here with regard to this longer assignment. This is a super-wide open race, but in the end, we’re looking for a price in LADY MAMBA (#4). First, she’s a larger mare who just broke her maiden last month, as a 5-year-old, but so many things to like right now. First, she strings races together for the first time since last May, winning in that return to the races last time out while going six furlongs, and now, Peter Eurton doesn’t waste any time returning to the sod for her first try against winners, but moves from a six-furlong dirt sprint to a nine-furlong turf route, a great sign. Mike Smith isn’t going anywhere, and the two works since racing five weeks ago, is ideal. The price on the board likely merits the risk-reward she’s offering here Saturday. SUTRO (#5) also comes off her maiden win, now stringing races together, and though Smith leaves for our top choice, Heriberto Figueroa hops aboard, while she’s already proven over this long assignment which came as no surprise last time out, as she’s a plodding sort, aided by the long distance with her ‘grinding away’ style.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-5

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1

“Negative Notes:

“1 Zusha - This is the perfect example of a trainer getting nothing in the afternoon from this filly, now switching surfaces and moving further out in distance. We’ll defeat.

“7 Super Patriot - Despite Drayden hopping back aboard, not convinced she wants this longer distance.

“8 K P Pergolicious - She could be a nice ‘play against,’ with those graded stakes efforts coming at even longer distances, while not convinced the cutback in distance will aid her cause, especially with a shorter price attached.

“11 Qafilah - Runners on their turf here who made their last start at Golden Gate, are 3 for 47.

“TOP PICK: LADY MAMBA (#4 10-1 Smith) $ Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: SUTRA (#5 8-1 Figueroa) $ Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

In what’s got to be the biggest upset in an allowance race this meeting at Santa Anita, Eddie Haskell just got up to beat Stormy Liberal by a head in a five-furlong turf contest for a purse of a mere $67,000. (Get the intro now?) Everyone thought this would be little more than a paid workout for the two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champion.

Stormy Liberal really wasn’t supposed to be in this race but scratched out of a stakes at Gulfstream on Pegasus day when the race was moved off the grass. These races were supposed to be preps for a turf sprint in Dubai. Now, trainer Peter Miller may have to rethink that equation.

Stormy Liberal took an odd step entering the stretch and that may have compromised his finish. He is rarely if ever caught when he takes the lead. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke told Britney Eurton of TVG that the bad step cost his horse the race but that he galloped out fine.

“We’ll have to see how he is,” Miller told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “Hopefully, we can go on with him.”

Eddie Haskell was not overlooked. He paid $10.40, $2.60 and $2.40. Calculator, Stormy’s stablemate, finished third followed by Cistron and Tough Sunday. Eddie’s time of 55.06 seconds was a track record at that distance, although very few of those races have been run.

Mark Glatt was the winning trainer and Joel Rosario the jockey.

“Rosario’s the key with this horse,” Glatt said. “He gets this horse to relax and he obviously loves this distance.”

Santa Anita preview

There are 10 races scheduled with a start time of, yes new start time, see above, 12:25 p.m., five minutes earlier than usual. Half of the races are on the turf, there is a Grade 2 stakes race, two allowance-type races and two maiden specials. So, all is good for a slightly chilly but sunny day at the races. (The horses actually prefer it to be colder than warmer. The ice cream vendors not so much.) The average field size is 8.1 horses.

The feature, about 4:20 p.m., is the Grade 2 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes for older fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. The favorite is the popular Vasilika at 8-5. We’ve told her story so many times that there is no need to repeat. But, let’s say, it’s probably the best bargain trainer Jerry Hollendorfer ever got. She’s won nine of her last 10 and is coming off a win in the Megahertz Stakes. Flavien Prat rides.

Elysea’s World is the 4-1 second choice. Not sure what to expect from her as she has been off since Oct. 13 and she’s mostly been running back east and in Canada. She did win three Grade 3s last year. Richard Baltas trains and Rosario will ride.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 5, 7, 8, 8, 10 ,8, 10, 8, 11.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

1:26 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Franklin Square Stakes, NY-bred fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Forgotten Hero (8-5)

1:58 Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $100,000 Hal’s Hope Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Breaking Lucky (2-1)

2:41 Oaklawn (8): $100,000 Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes, Ark-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Georgia’s Reward (5-2)

4:20 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Vasilika (8-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

TENTH RACE: No. 11 Qafilah (10-1)

Improving winner of her most recent start at Golden Gate (at this same allowance condition), the Manny Badilla trainee was flattered when the runner-up came back to win her next start and has a strong and steady work pattern since the race. She has tactical speed to overcome the post and obviously tries hard, having won three of her 10 starts. She will be a square price in here.

Friday’s result: Spy Ring ($9.60) avoided trouble this time, going right to the front from her rail post and holding a safe margin all the way through the stretch under Kent Desormeaux in the fifth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 1 Fly N Away (7-2)

This solid filly crushed a productive cast of maiden runners in her last start on Jan. 26 (the third-place finisher in that race, Oliverssweetprincess, returned to win here on Feb. 16) and is represented by one of track’s top owner/trainer/jockey combinations of owner Martha Wells, trainer Matt Fales and jockey Erasmo Gasca. In breaking her maiden, Fly N Away broke well to garner the lead right from the get-go and she extended her advantage easily despite drifting in throughout. Off that quality effort and with room for improvement if she can avoid drifting, Fly N Away figures to be powerful contender on Saturday night.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

EDDIE HASKELL stalked off the rail then between horses on the turn, came three deep into the stretch, bid three wide in midstretch and gamely prevailed under a late left handed crack of the whip and a strong hand ride. STORMY LIBERAL close up stalking the pace outside a rival, bid alongside the pacesetter on the turn, bobbled when taking an awkward step past the quarter pole, took a short a short lead and fought back under urging between foes in the stretch, had the rider lose the whip nearing the wire and continued gamely to the end. CALCULATOR had speed four wide then inched away, angled in and set the pace inside, fought back on the turn and through the stretch and could not quite match the top pair late. CISTRON saved ground stalking the pace, waited off heels into the stretch, came out for room in midstretch and was edged for third. TOUGH SUNDAY broke a bit slowly, chased off the rail then three deep on the turn and into the stretch and weakened.

LADY NINJA stalked outside a rival then bid three deep to duel for the lead, put a head in front on the turn, fought back outside the runner-up under urging in the final furlong and inched and inched clear late. CONVINCE saved ground stalking the early pace then bid inside to duel for command, fought back along the fence in deep stretch and could not quite match the winner late. TIME FOR EBBY stalked off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and gained the show. TORENO sped to the early lead and set the pace a bit off the rail, dueled between foes on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

MAD MIKE sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, inched away again in the stretch and held sway under left handed urging and steady handling late. COONEY stalked off the rail, inched forward on the turn, was not a match for the winner in the drive but clearly second best. STAY IN YO LANE broke inward and a bit slowly, chased inside, came off the rail on the turn, drifted in some late and lacked a response in the drive. LEAD STAR chased outside a rival, dropped back on the turn, came out into the stretch and gave way.

DANNIE JOE broke a bit slowly, saved ground stalking the pace, came out some in the stretch, bid between foes under urging a sixteenth out to gain a short lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. TIZ TOFFEE had good early speed and dueled between horses, stalked a bit off the rail then between foes on the turn, bid again three deep a sixteenth out and went willingly to the end. WINSINFASHION went up inside to press the pace, inched away on the turn, fought back some past midstretch and held third. LOVELY RAQUEL stalked outside the winner then a bit off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. KINDRED prompted the pace between horses, stalked outside then three deep on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. CHAY UP AND AWAY forced the pace four wide between horses, stalked between foes on the turn, angled in entering the stretch and also weakened. WE ALL HAVE DREAMS pressed the pace five wide on the backstretch, stalked four wide on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

SPY RING (IRE) sped to the early lead, set the pace along the inside, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. MERGER ARBITRAGE between horses early, chased three deep to the stretch and edged rivals for the place. SPACE TALK (GB) chased between rivals, split foes leaving the hill, went between horses again in deep stretch and was edged for second. BATIQUITOS stalked between horses early then a bit off the rail to the stretch and was edged for the show. NICE ICE steadied in tight between horses early and again at the right hand curve, settled outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SPECIAL PURPOSE (IRE) chased outside then three deep on the hill, came four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. ANIMOSITY had speed outside then stalked three wide to the stretch and did not rally. TRUSTINI between horses early, stalked inside, steadied briefly in a bit tight nearing the dirt crossing, cut the corner into the stretch and weakened. TEAM HOLLYWOOD had speed between horses then was taken back inside, was shuffled back down the hill, came out in the stretch and lacked a further response. TYFOSHA between rivals early, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace and had little left for the stretch. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

SAMANDAH had good early speed and dueled inside, kicked away on the second turn and won clear under a couple taps of the whip in the final sixteenth and steady handling. TICK TOCK stalked three deep then outside a rival on the second turn, continued three deep leaving that turn and into the stretch and edged a foe for the place. THANKS had speed three deep then dueled outside the winner, stalked on the second turn and between foes leaving that turn and into the stretch and was edged for second. DISCRETE STEVIE B saved ground stalking the pace throughout and was outkicked for a minor award. WEST WAY DREAMS broke a bit slowly, angled in and saved ground off the pace, continued inside in the stretch and failed to menace. WEST STOWEY LASS stalked off the rail then between foes, dropped back into and on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch. ALYSTAR close up stalking the pace outside a rival then between foes on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn, also gave way and was eased in the stretch.

OSTINI had good early speed and set a pressured pace inside, inched away a half mile out, kicked clear and held under urging. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE angled in and stalked a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn, came out into the stretch and held second. JET SET RULER saved ground stalking the pace, came a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, angled back in nearing the stretch and was edged for the place. COOL GREEN prompted the pace outside the winner then stalked just off the rail into and on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. PLAIN WRAP broke a bit slowly, settled inside then just off the rail, came out in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. HOT PERFECTION three deep into the first turn, chased a bit off the inside then along the rail into and on the second turn and also weakened. PUSH THROUGH angled in and settled inside, came out a bit on the backstretch, went outside a rival on the second turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

TREASURE HUNTER prompted the pace outside a rival, took the lead past the quarter pole, inched away into the stretch and proved best under some urging. SUPER DUPER COOPER chased between horses then a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and gained the place. I CAN DO THIS three deep into the first turn, stalked just off the rail then outside a rival on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and picked up the show. HEY SEQUOIA saved ground stalking the pace, came out some leaving the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally. FERGUSON sped to the early lead, set a pressured pace inside, fought back leaving the second turn and weakened in the stretch. LIBERTY PARK broke a bit slowly, chased three deep then between horses on the backstretch, dropped back just off the rail on the second turn and also weakened. UPPER ROOM four wide into the first turn, chased three deep, also dropped back on the second turn and had little left for the drive.

CAMINO DE ESTRELLA stalked off the rail, bid between horses then outside the pacesetter into the second turn, re-bid between horses under urging in deep stretch and gamely got up. GEORGIE HYPHEN (IRE) was rank along the inside and steadied early and again into the first turn, saved ground stalking the pace, steadied again into the second turn, came out in upper stretch, bid three wide in deep stretch and went gamely to the end. FRIENDLY STEVE angled in and set the pace inside, responded when challenged leaving the backstretch, inched away again just off the rail in the stretch, fought back in deep stretch and held third. MR. MAGICO chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, angled to the inside in the stretch and was outfinished. TOPGALLANT chased inside then a bit off the rail on the second turn, angled in leaving the turn, came a bit off the fence in the stretch and was outkicked alongside a rival late. GRAY ADMIRAL in a bit tight early, chased inside then outside a rival, steadied to avoid the fallen rider leaving the backstretch, angled in entering the stretch and lacked a response in the drive. DIGNITAIRE stumbled at the start, chased three deep, dropped back outside a rival on the second turn and weakened. HOT AMERICAN angled in and chased a bit off the rail, took a bad step and suffered a catastrophic injury to the right front and unseated the rider leaving the backstretch and was vanned off. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the incident leaving the backstretch before ruling no other runner was responsible for the trouble to HOT AMERICAN.