Racing! It’s showtime with best card of meeting at Santa Anita

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we offer up another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

OK, the big story is Saturday’s monster cards at Santa Anita, Keeneland and Aqueduct. This day shapes the Kentucky Derby picture more than any other as six horses can automatically qualify out of these three tracks.

But, despite the great Santa Anita Derby on tap, the talk in Southern California still has to revolve around the horse fatalities.

In a story I did for print and online, I dug up this stat. Here’s a quote from the story:

“There has been one fatality in the last 22 days of training and five of racing. Arms Runner was euthanized after injuring his right front leg on Sunday during a 6 ½ furlong turf race down the hill. Santa Anita has taken all races this week off the unique hillside course, which has an 80-foot dirt crossover entering the stretch.

“The 22-day stretch has included 2,863 timed workouts and 357 race starts, for a total of 3,220. Still, people in and out of racing agree the tolerance for racing deaths remains at zero.”

If we weren’t in this period of crisis, you would likely think those figures show a marked improvement from the relative horror of January and February. So, while things get much better safety-wise, public perception remains perilously low. You can read the story. Just click here.

Now, speaking of public perception, the Jockeys’ Guild announced that next Friday the jockeys would not be riding with racing crops, or whips. You can read the story, just click here. And, if you want to see the whole letter sent to many entities, just click here.

At first look, this seems like a really smart move by the jockeys. They say they are gathering data but what they are doing is giving a preview of what the no-riding crop world will look like. Now, maybe they find out the public is OK with it and this was a misplay. Or maybe the entry box comes up thin or the mutuel handle is significantly down.

When I talked with Terry Meyocks, the president and CEO of the Jockeys’ Guild, last week he said they would use statistics and science to sell their side. This seems to be the opening salvo. If this were baseball, we’d be calling it a purpose pitch.

We’ll tell you how it works next week.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the first at Santa Anita. Take it away, Rob.

“This big day of racing begins with an optional claimer at 1 ⅛ miles on the turf. This race could serve as a prime example for those who side with the ‘pace makes the race’ angle. With that in mind, top selection is SPY RING (#3). She comes off a win down the hill going 6 ½, now sent nine furlongs, but there’s every reason to believe she’s ready to stretch her speed out. First, before we even get to her own positive attributes, we can establish she’s the legitimate speed in a race full of runners who would prefer to settle mid-pack. Last time out, going shorter, she went 44.2 seconds, yet still got her final 2 ½ furlongs in 29 flat, which is solid, as we like to see 30.1 or less on the turf (31.1 on the main track). Jim Cassidy is really good with knowing which runners can settle stretching out in distance (not all trainers are that sharp), and if Kent Desormeaux can settle him while finding a nice breathing rhythm, they can turn that 44.2 into a 48.2, distributing his energy a bit more judiciously. Throw in the fact she now strings three races together for the first time since June of 2016 when racing over in Europe, tells us she’s regained some good health these days, which of course opens the door to another good effort. Lots of positive attributes to get behind, and that’s how to back a horse. If we’re looking on the front end with the top pick, we’ll look for a contrary style with our second choice in MIRTH (#1). When she was back east, she was asked to lay closer up, while running evenly in her West coast debut in January, but last time out was different. New rider Flavien Prat took back, and she responded, and whenever you notice a horse showing success trying something new, whether a new distance, running style, etc, it’s worth noting.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 3-1

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 4,7

“Positive Notes:

“Negative Notes:

“4 Pulpit Rider - Not a fan of Aaron Gryder from off the pace (nor Tyler Baze who rode this one last time out).

“7 Fool’s Paradise - Both turf tries were poor, and it certainly appears they’re simply looking for a spark, something, anything, by sending this ultra-long distance. Looking to beat.

“TOP PICK: SPY RING (#3 4-1 Desormeaux) $ Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: MIRTH (#1 3-1 Prat)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Not much of a feature when only four horses go to post. But that was the story of Friday’s seventh race, an allowance for horses 3 and up going six furlongs. It was originally carded as five horses but Bump Bailey was a vet scratch.

Manhattan Up rallied from next to last (get the joke?) to win by three lengths for trainer Philip Oviedo and jockey Tiago Pereira. Nice Work was second, followed by Moonoverthebayou and Savagery. Manhattan Up paid $4.00 and $2.60.

Santa Anita preview

No question, it’s will be the best card of the meeting. There are 11 races starting at noon, including seven stakes all worth more than $100,000 and three Grade 1s. So, let’s get right to it.

Evening Jewel Stakes (12:30 p.m.): This is a $200,000 6 ½ furlong race for 3-year-old Cal-bred fillies. Sneaking Out, for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Drayden Van Dyke, is the 8-5 morning-line favorite. She won her last two races after a second in her debut. This is Van Dyke’s first time riding the filly. The second favorite, at 7-2, is Lippy for Doug O’Neill and Rafael Bejarano. She is coming off a second in the Cal Cup Oaks and two-of-five lieftime. Regular rider Mario Gutierrez is at Keeneland.

Santa Anita Oaks (1 p.m.): There are only five starters but it’s a heck up a matchup between Bellafina and Chasing Yesterday. This is for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. Bellafina is the 2-5 favorite for Simon Callaghan and Flavien Prat. She has won five of seven, with her biggest blemish being a fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where Callaghan said she was “in season” and not totally focused on running. She won here last two races, both Grade 2s. Chasing Yesterday, for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, is the 3-1 second choice. She has won five of six, including her last four. Van Dyke had ridden her the last four races and Smith her first two. But things are getting serious when Baffert pulls the jockey switch in the last prep race before the Kentucky Oaks.

Royal Heroine Stakes (2:05 p.m.): This $200,000 Grade 2 for older fillies and mares going a mile on the turf features Vasilika, who has won 10 of her last 11 races. We’ve told the story many times of how Hollendorfer picked her up in a $40,000 claiming race. And she hasn’t really looked back since, with only one loss in the Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar. Prat is her rider. She’s the 3-5 favorite. Raven’s Lady for Jim Cassidy and Kent Desormeaux is the 7-2 second choice. She is making her U.S. debut after racing exclusively in Britain. She is six-of-18 lifetime.

Echo Eddie Stakes (2:40 p.m.): This is the mirror of the Evening Jewel Stakes, except for 3-year-old fillies, it’s for colts and geldings. Lieutenant Dan is the 5-2 favorite for Steve Miyadi and Geovanni Franco. He’s coming off a 4-length win at Golden Gate. He’s two-of-five lifetime. Foster Boi get the nod as the 3-1 second favorite for Phi D’Amato and Prat. Not a lot to say as he won his only race, a maiden special, by 2 ¾ lengths. It’s a 10-horse field.

Santa Anita Derby (4:14 p.m.): This is the big one $1 million race for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles. We’ve got a story online and in print that covers a couple aspects of this race. Just click here. But the quick story here is Game Winner is trying to avenge a second place in the Rebel Stakes. It was his first loss in five races. Baffert trains and Joel Rosario rides. He’s 4-5. Roadster, at 5-2, is coming off an allowance win after a disappointing third in the Del Mar Futurity. He was found to have a breathing issue and send back to the farm for some minor surgery and rest. Smith gets the ride on this Baffert horse. And, we’ll go three deep in this six-horse race, with Instagrand, who won his first two races by a combine more than 20 lengths for Hollendorfer. Prat picks up the ride. He ran a disappointing third in the Gotham last month after almost a seven-month layoff. He’s at 3-1.

Providencia Stakes (4:50 p.m.): This $150,000 Grade 3 if for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. It’s got a field of 10 headed by Colonial Creed at 3-1, who goes for Richard Baltas and Franco. She’s won one of five lifetime and is coming off a second in the Blue Norther Stakes. Stablemate Lady Prancealot is at 7-2 with Rosario in the saddle. With 10 starts, she’s most experienced in the race. Five of those starts were in Britain. She’s won two lifetime races.

Santa Anita Handicap (5:20 p.m.): The final stakes of the day used to be the marquee race of the meet. It’s still a Grade 1 and worth $600,000. It’s at the classic distance of 1 ¼ miles. McKinzie, for Baffert and Smith, is the 4-5 favorite. He’s won five-of-eight lifetime and is coming off a second in the San Pasqual. He won his previous start in the Malibu after a disappointing 12^th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gift Box, a lightly raced 6-year-old is the 6-5 second choice for John Sadler and Rosario. We wrote about him a couple days ago. You can read it, just click here.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:30 Santa Anita (2): $200,000 Evening Jewel Stakes, Cal-bred fillies 3-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Sneaking Out (8-5)

12:38 Aqueduct (6): Grade 3 $250,000 Bay Shore Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Much Better (9-5)

1:00 Santa Anita (3): Grade 1 $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Bellafina (2-5)

1:00 Keeneland (6): Grade 3 $250,000 Commonwealth Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Limousine Liberal (3-1)

1:11 Aqueduct (7): Grade 3 $150,000 Excelsior Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Discreet Lover (9-5)

1:35 Keeneland (7): Grade 2 $200,000 Shakertown Stakes, 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Disco Partner (5-2)

1:47 Aqueduct (8): Grade 2 $300,000 Gazelle Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Espresso Shot (9-5)

2:05 Santa Anita (5): Grade 2 $200,000 Royal Heroine Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Vasilika (3-5)

2:10 Keeneland (8): Grade 1 $300,000 Madison Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Shamrock Rose (5-2)

2:22 Aqueduct (9): Grade 1 $400,000 Carter Handicap, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: World of Trouble (1-1)

2:40 Santa Anita (6): $200,000 Echo Eddie Stakes, Cal-bred 3-year-olds, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Lieutenant Dan (5-2)

2:45 Keeneland (9): Grade 1 $500,000 Ashland Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Jaywalk (8-5)

3:00 Aqueduct (10): Grade 2 $750,000 Wood Memorial, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Tacitus (5-2)

3:23 Keeneland (10): Grade 2 $1 million Blue Grass Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Vekoma (9-5)

3:30 Oaklawn (9): $150,000 Carousel Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Amy’s Challenge (7-5)

4:14 Santa Anita (8): Grade 1 $1 million Santa Anita Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Game Winner (4-5)

4:50 Santa Anita (9): Grade 3 $150,000 Providencia Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Colonial Creed (3-1)

5:20 Santa Anita (10): Grade 1 $600,000 Santa Anita Handicap, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: McKinzie (4-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

ELEVENTH RACE: No. 3 The Hunted (3-1)

Coming off a fine runner-up effort going nine furlongs, the Richard Baltas-trained gelding cuts back to a mile and looks ready to win again as he continues his improving pattern. Drawn well inside with tactical speed and the best turf rider, no excuses here as the lukewarm morning line favorite.

Friday’s result: Out of Balance ($6.60) kicked away strongly to run past her rivals for a nice win in the fifth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 4 Baba Be Gone (7-2)

The connections of owner Juan De Dios Gracian and trainer Jesus Nunez have great results with first-out claims. Nunez took this mare for $2,500 when a game neck winner three weeks ago and shows confidence with a two-level class hike. He also employs strong distance rider Ramon Guce. Her main contender is No. 3 Tuesdays Supernova, who scored wire-to-wire win vs. similar in last start. I suggest a win bet on Baba Be Gone and make a 4-3 exacta box.

Final thought

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

ROSES AND CANDY sped to the early lead, shook loose on the first turn, set all the pace along the inside and held clear under urging. BEYOND PLEASURE close up stalking the winner outside a rival to the stretch, edged a foe for the place. LUCKY STEPPER three deep early, chased outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for second between foes late. BREEZY BEE bobbled behind in a slow start, angled in and settled inside then a bit off the rail, went around a rival into the stretch, came out in the drive and was edged for the show three deep on the line. MORE SMORES between horses early, chased a bit off the rail, split rivals into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. LIL RESPECT pulled along the inside then came off the rail leaving the backstretch, went outside a rival then three deep on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. MESO angled in and chased outside a rival then inside on the second turn and into the stretch, was in tight off heels in midstretch, split foes and lacked the needed rally inside. DAYBREAK (GB) a step slow to begin, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and did not rally. HILLTOP HARMONY tugged her way along early, saved ground stalking the pace to the stretch and weakened in the drive. BEV'S HUMOR chased outside a rival, dropped back three deep leaving the backstretch, angled in some on the second turn and lacked a further response.

CONCUR had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the turn, was shaken up with the reins to widen in midstretch and drew off under a crack of the whip nearing the sixteenth pole and steady handling. VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD chased inside, fell back some leaving the backstretch, inched forward inside on the turn, came out into the stretch and split horses late for the place. KIDMON stalked three deep then outside a rival, was three wide again leaving the turn and into the stretch and was edged for second. BLESS HIS HEART dueled outside the winner then stalked leaving the turn, drifted in some in the stretch and was edged for the show. SURFSIDE SUNSET broke slightly in the air and a bit slowly, stalked between horses then just off the rail, dropped back between foes leaving the turn, came out in the stretch and weakened.

PRINCESS PEARL pressed the pace four wide then three deep on the turn and into the stretch, took a short lead, inched away in midstretch and held under urging. INTO RISSA broke a bit slowly, settled three deep then went between foes leaving the backstretch, angled in on the turn, swung four wide into the stretch and edged a rival or the place. MISS RICOCHET dueled between horses, took a slim advantage leaving the turn, continued a bit off the rail into the stretch, found the fence in the drive and was edged for second. OUR ROMANCE broke in a bit, angled in and went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the turn and weakened in the stretch. LA LA LAND fractious in the gate, bobbled at the start, stalked off the rail then three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. SIDECHEERING chased outside, came three deep into the stretch and lacked a further response. SUCCESSFUL RULER chased a bit off the rail then inside on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. WHOA NESSIE prompted the pace three deep between foes, stalked off the rail on the turn, continued three wide into the stretch and also weakened. RUM CAKE bobbled at the start, settled outside then dropped back off the rail, angled in some on the turn and lacked a further response. STYLE AWARD hopped slightly in a bit of a slow start, saved ground, was in tight off heels into the turn, continued inside and failed to menace.

DYF stalked outside, bid three deep on the second turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away under urging and held gamely. ACK broke out and bumped with a rival, was close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail, bid between horses on the second turn to gain a short advantage, fought back along the inside in the final furlong and continued willingly. PALLADIUM saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the second turn, split horses into the stretch and was edged for the place. NATIONS HOPE four wide into the first turn, chased outside a rival, went three deep into and out of the second turn and lacked a rally. LEAD STAR was bumped at the start then bobbled just after the break, chased a bit off the rail then between foes, dropped back leaving the second turn and weakened. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, fought back when challenged on the second turn and weakened in the drive.

OUT OF BALANCE chased outside a rival, went up three deep on the second turn and into the stretch, rallied under urging to the front in deep stretch and proved best. CURLIN'S JOURNEY bobbled some at the start, angled in and dueled outside a rival, inched away briefly in midstretch, fought back in deep stretch and jut held second. MERCY MERCY angled in and dueled inside, fought back into the stretch, continued along the rail and edged foes for the show. COLDWATER tugged her way along inside to chase the pace, went around a rival into the stretch, continued between foes through the final furlong and was edged for third. SURFACE angled in and chased outside a rival, came out in upper stretch and was edged for a minor award. SUNNY DALE stalked the pace inside then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, came three wide into the stretch and also put in a late bid at a minor share between foes late. PAIGE RUNNER stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued between foes into and through the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. DECORATING pulled her way along inside, saved ground chasing the pace, waited off heels and came out a bit in midstretch, came out again in deep stretch and could not summon the necessary late response. FASHION ISLAND saved ground stalking the pace throughout and also lacked the needed rally. KITTYHAWK LASS bobbled some at the start, drifted out into the first turn, angled in and settled outside a rival chasing the pace, dropped back just off the rail nearing the stretch and lacked a further response.

DANNIE JOE stalked four wide then three deep on the turn, bid three wide into the stretch to gain the lead in upper stretch, inched away under left handed urging in midstretch and held on gamely. CIAO LUNA close up stalking the pace between horses, came out in upper stretch, bid outside the winner in deep stretch and continued willingly. DURANGA saved ground tracking the pace, awaited room leaving the turn and nearing the stretch, split rivals in midstretch and finished with interest toward the inside. MAJESTIC DIVA stalked a bit off the rail, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and was outfinished. ROAD TEST chased between horses then outside a rival, fell back off the rail on the turn, came out in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. GIA LULA stalked off the rail then outside, bid alongside the pacesetter into the turn, put a head in front between foes into the stretch, drifted in some in the final furlong and weakened late. EMMY AND I a step slow to begin, was sent between horses to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then dueled inside into and on the turn and weakened in the final furlong.

MANHATTAN UP chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, bid alongside the runner-up in midstretch, gained the lead past the eighth pole and drew clear under a steady hand ride. NICE WORK went up inside to gain the lead, inched away a half mile out, set the pace inside, kicked clear leaving the turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, fought back inside the winner in midstretch, drifted in some late and held second. MOONOVERTHEBAYOU chased off the inside, angled to the rail into the turn, continued along the inside into and through the stretch and lacked a rally. SAVAGERY sped to the early lead off the rail, pressed the pace outside the runner-up then stalked off the inside, drifted out on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.

FORAY a bit washy at the gate, sped to the early lead and angled in, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, came out a bit into the backstretch, responded when the runner-up loomed leaving the second turn and won clear under left handed urging. PUSH THROUGH saved ground stalking the pace, came off the rail to loom a threat leaving the second turn, angled out some into the stretch and held the place. MO BOB (IRE) saved ground chasing the pace throughout and edged a rival for the show. MR. MAGICO steadied in tight between horses early, angled in and chased inside, came out into the stretch and was edged for third. EAST RAND a bit slow to begin, settled outside a rival, went up three deep into the second turn, angled to the inside leaving that turn and improved position inside in the stretch. HIGHLAND BOWL in tight between horses early, chased outside a rival then pulled between foes on the backstretch, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. UNION REBEL between horses early, chased inside, tugged his way between foes then stalked outside a rival on the backstretch and second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. VANGILDER chased a bit off the rail then between horses on the backstretch, angled in some on the second turn and did not rally. ICE KAT chased outside then went up four wide on the backstretch, continued outside on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and weakened. JUNE TWO FOUR stalked outside a rival then briefly three deep midway on the backstretch, continued outside a foe, dropped back on the second turn, came out four wide into the stretch and also weakened.