Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s Derby rankings are here

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome to our horse racing newsletter, as we answer more questions about Sunday’s pick six winning ticket at Del Mar.

Back for another week of really good racing. In our last newsletter, the situation over the $8 single pick six winner at Del Mar prompted a lot of response. Didn’t have all the answers, but, thanks to the tireless Mike Marten, spokesman for the California Horse Racing Board, we have some of the answers as to how this bet was made.

Here’s his statement.

“The California Horse Racing Board reviewed the wagering transactions that led to one account holder winning the entire Pick 6 pool Sunday at Del Mar on an $8 ticket. The records show that the account placed 8,613 individual wagers totaling $29,652. All wagers were placed in batches with the last batch coming in approximately four minutes before the first leg of the Pick 6.

“All 8,613 wagers used just one horse in each race, or using the popular wagering terminology, with six singles. However, the denominations of those wagers differed. Approximately 70 percent were made in the traditional $2 increment for the Pick 6. The other 30 percent were placed in various denominations of $4, $6, $8, $10, $12, $14, $16, $24, $26, and $60. The horse that paid $114 and triggered the massive payoff ($173,912) was used on only 1 percent of the 8,613 tickets.”

Such is the new world we live in where computer-based wagering is the king and all the $2 bettors are just pawns.

On to the good stuff.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

As always, we’re lucky to have top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening on the Triple Crown trail. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the preeminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here are his Kentucky Derby rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com.

“Honor A.P., who sits atop my Kentucky Derby rankings, runs Saturday at Del Mar in the $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. It’s the final California race offering points toward the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby.

“The first four finishers will be rewarded with Kentucky Derby points on a 50-20-10-5 scale.

“The Shared Belief (formerly the El Cajon Stakes) pays tribute to the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2013. Shared Belief, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, won 10 of 12 career starts.

“As a 3-year-old, Shared Belief registered a 2¾-length victory in Del Mar’s 2014 Pacific Classic when facing older horses. Later in the year as the 5-2 favorite in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita, he got knocked around early and finished fourth. His only other defeat came when he slipped leaving the gate and was pulled up with a hip injury in the Charles Town Classic on April 18, 2015. He never raced again.

“Shared Belief was owned by a partnership that included sports talk host Jim Rome and his wife, Janet, plus Hollendorfer, Jason Litt, Kevin and Kim Nish, Alex Solis II and George Todaro.

“On the morning of Dec. 3, 2015, Shared Belief was in training at Golden Gate Fields when he showed signs of colic. ‘They immediately sent him to a clinic at UC Davis, where he could get the best medical attention available as quickly as possible,’ Rome said on his radio show the next day. ‘Emergency colic surgery was performed. Unfortunately, doctors were unable to save him.’

“The death of Shared Belief was both shocking and sad for his connections and countless racing fans. His death ‘truly was one of the saddest days of my life,’ Rome said. ‘But this is horse racing. There are things about the sport that are so glorious and there are things about the sport that are really troubling. And this is one of the really troubling aspects of it. It happens. I mean, the horse was a picture of health 24 hours earlier. You will never find a tougher horse. He had issues he would run through. He had bad feet. But he loved his job and he loved to compete.’

“Shared Belief, said Rome, ‘was a champion in every sense of the word.’

“As for Honor A.P., thanks to the 120 points he has earned so far, he already has a berth in the new 20-stall Kentucky Derby starting gate. Only Tiz the Law (272) and Authentic (200) have more Kentucky Derby points among horses currently in training.

“I expect Honor A.P.’s odds to be no higher than 4-5 and possibly as low as 2-5 or even 1-5 in the Shared Belief. I will be shocked if he is even money or higher.

“Trained by John Sherriffs of Zenyatta fame, Honor A.P. is coming off a sparkling 2¾-length win in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby on June 6. That performance by Honor A.P. was flattered when Santa Anita Derby runner-up Authentic subsequently won the $1-million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on July 18.

“Mike Smith again rides Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief. Smith has been aboard in all his races. Honor A.P. has two wins and two seconds.

“A Kentucky-bred Honor Code ridgling, Honor A.P. races for the C R K Stable of Lee and Susan Searing. The Thoroughbred Owners of California announced Tuesday that, as of this week, an owner can attend the races when their horses compete at Del Mar. This has not been permitted at either Santa Anita or Del Mar for the last four months due to the coronavirus pandemic. Lee Searing, a resident of Claremont, Calif., is thrilled that he will be able to be on hand at Del Mar to see Honor A.P. run Saturday. ‘I’ll be driving down,’ he told Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman. ‘This will be the first time, other than workouts, that I can see my horses.’

“Six were entered in the Shared Belief, but Uncle Chuck will be scratched, according to trainer Bob Baffert. The plan is for Uncle Chuck to run in Saratoga’s 1¼-mile Runhappy Travers on Aug. 8. Uncle Chuck is two for two. After winning a one-mile maiden race by seven lengths at Santa Anita on June 12, Uncle Chuck stepped up in class and took the 1 1/8-mile Los Alamitos Derby by four lengths on July 4.

“Tiz the Law, who won the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Stakes by 3¾ lengths on June 20, makes his next start in the Travers. Tiz the Law is No. 2 in my Kentucky Derby rankings. Uncle Chuck is No. 4.

“Anneau d’Or, trained by Blaine Wright, also might be scratched from the Shared Belief to instead start in the 1 1/8-mile Runhappy Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9. Anneau d’Or has not raced since finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. He was scratched from the Los Alamitos Derby because of an elevated temperature.

“Art Collector, who won the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes by 3½ lengths at Keeneland on July 11, makes his next start in the Ellis Park Derby. Art Collector is No. 3 in my Kentucky Derby rankings.

“While the word is Uncle Chuck will not be running Saturday, Baffert still has Cezanne and Thousand Words in the Shared Belief.

“Cezanne, a highly regarded $3.65-million auction purchase, is two for two and will be making his stakes debut Saturday. Thousand Words won his first three starts, but then lost a pair of races by 11¼ and 29¾ lengths before finishing second in the Los Alamitos Derby.

“Flavien Prat rode Cezanne in both starts and will do so again Saturday. Prat piloted Thousand Words in the Los Alamitos Derby, but Abel Cedillo rides him this time.

“The other Shared Belief entrant is Kiss Today Goodbye, who is expected to be a longshot. Kiss Today Goodbye has won just once in six lifetime starts.

“After the Shared Belief, the remaining three races offering Kentucky Derby points are:

“— Travers Stakes (100-40-20-10) at Saratoga on Aug. 8.

“— Ellis Park Derby (50-20-10-5) at Ellis Park on Aug. 9.

“— Pegasus Stakes (20-8-4-2) at Monmouth Park on Aug. 15.

“Here are this week’s rankings for the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Honor A.P. (1)

2. Tiz the Law (2)

3. Art Director (3)

4. Uncle Chuck (4)

5. Authentic (5)

6. Dr Post (6)

7. Cezanne (7)

8. Max Player (8)

9. King Guillermo (9)

10. Country Grammer (10)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Del Mar preview

Before we get to Friday, Del Mar announced on Thursday that it was increasing purses 10% based on strong wagering through the first seven days of the meeting. The track also made the new structure retroactive to the first day of the meet.

The track has seen $133.8 million bet on its races, a 5% increase on similar dates last year. In addition, the average starters each race have gone from 8.0 to 8.6. In addition, Del Mar is adding a stakes race, the $75,000 Del Mar Juvenile Filly Turf on Sept. 6.

On to Friday, where there is an 11-race card starting at, you guessed it, 2 p.m. There are four maiden specials, two allowance/optional claimers and one Cal-bred stakes. Five of the races are on the turf, with the rail set at a grass-saving 30 feet.

The feature is the $125,000 Real Good Deal Stakes for Cal-bred 3-year-olds going seven furlongs. The favorite, at 2-1, is El Tigre Terrible for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Flavien Prat. He has won three of seven lifetime. He won the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita, but last out was 11th in the Oceanside Stakes on the turf at Del Mar.

Rookie Mistake is the second favorite at 5-2 for Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez. He has won two of 10 and is coming off a fourth in the Oceanside. He has never won a stakes race. Post is around 6 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 8 (3 also eligible), 7, 8, 10, 8, 10, 9, 7, 10 (4 ae), 10 (1 ae).

Bob Ike’s DM pick of the day

NINTH RACE No. 4 El Tigre Terrible (2-1)

Love the chances of this Peter Miller-trained gelding, who had brutal trips in his last two starts on turf and was a two-time winner over the Del Mar main track last summer. The sophomore comes back in three weeks after having no chance to run at any point in the opening day Oceanside, but he should handle this field with better racing luck. He won’t be much of a price but looks like a free spot in the rolling exotics.

Monday’s result: Rio Ocho (2-1) lagged early as expected but never put in a serious rally and wound up mid-pack without any apparent excuse.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s DMr pick

RACE TWO: No. 7 Pretty Saylee (8-1)

RACE TWO: No. 1 Mandragora Seeker (8-1)

Mandragora Seeker put in a 33-second workout last week and Friday gets big boy Victor Flores to ride with a big seven-pound weight break. I usually don’t care about the weight on a short sprint, but given the inside post and the bullet gate work last week it can only help. They will try to pop the gate and wire the field. Trainer Luis Mendez has two in this race and Edwin Maldonado, who rides most of them, lands on the other horse Pretty Saylee, who on Monday in a three-furlong work went 34 seconds, second fastest of the day. Both horses are 8-1. I am using them in the value hunt along with the top two choices in exotics. My preference is on the Edwin ridden horse.

Monday’s result: Munnings’ Pilot looked like he was out for exercise, very surprising given Flavien Prat rode.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only track in California racing at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about things going on at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“A full field of 10 thoroughbreds will be in action in the fourth race of Friday’s seven-race program at Los Alamitos. The 1,000-yard race will serve as the final leg of the early Pick Four, while also kicking off the late Pick Four. First post is 7:35 p.m.

“Flawless Gem, who debuted with a second-place finish to the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Church Of Many on July 19, is the favorite. The Gemologist filly will be ridden by Ramon Guce, the meet’s overall leading rider. Wicked Blue, who finished third against $50,000 maiden claimers at 5½ furlongs during the daytime thoroughbred meet on June 26, and the Lorenzo Ruiz-trained Geocas Street are among others to watch in the fourth.

“The seventh race is the quarter-horse feature on Friday, with Apollitical Honey, Magical Prize and Strongly, three juveniles who finished in the money in their trials to the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity on June 7.

“On Saturday, 14 juveniles will be split evenly in two trials to the John Deere California Challenge. There are eight races with a 7:30 p.m. post. The horses with the 10 fastest times will move to the 350-yard California regional final on Aug. 15.

“Monty Arrossa will saddle favorites in each of the John Deere trials. He will send out undefeated filly Apollitical Patty, a half-sister to 2016 Champion of Champions winner Zoomin For Spuds, in the first trial and Jet Wings One, the runner-up to the La Jaconde in the Grade 2 Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity, in the second heat.

“On Sunday night, Tell Cartel will begin his quest for a third derby victory of the season when he heads a tremendous group of sophomores in the trials to the Grade 2 Golden State Derby on Sunday. Eighteen 3-year-olds will compete with the 10 fastest times advancing to the Golden State Derby final on Aug. 16.

“Tell Cartel has been the meet’s top 3-year-old after a ¾-length win in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Derby on Feb. 8 before winning big in the Grade 3 El Primero Del Año Derby on March 29. Second at the start of the El Primero, he took off at the halfway point to score a 1¾-length win while racing well in hand. Ruben Lozano, who has ridden Tell Cartel to perfection in both of those derby wins, will be aboard the Favorite Cartel gelding for trainer Matt Fales. Tell Cartel has won six of 13 career starts, while finishing in the money 10 times.

“Dr. Steve Burns was the AQHA champion breeder in 2019 and currently campaigns one of the strongest groups of 3-year-olds in the nations. A couple of those runners will be in the Golden State Derby led by sprinters You Can Run and Grade 2 PCQHRA Breeders Futurity winner Sass Go Blue. Other top sophomores in the trials include Ed Allred’s Circle City, the 2019 Grade 1 Golden State Million runner-up, and Fernando Flores’ Mister Tornado, the winner of the Adequan California Derby.

“Looking back at California Breeders Champions weekend, the $322,000 Governor’s Cup Futurity resulted in a Valentin Zamudio exacta, as the trainer saddled Constituent and runner-up Squid Word. Meanwhile, the $185,000 Governor’s Cup Derby was an Ed Allred and Scott Willoughby trifecta, as the owner/trainer were represented by winner Nomadic, runner-up Up For Speed and third-place finisher Just Be Real. The $100,000 Spencer Childers Championship Handicap went to Bail Czech, who took advantage of the scratch of favorite Chocolatito, to score a half-length victory.”

Chris Wade’s Friday LA pick

RACE THREE: No. 2 Asem (6-1)

She just crushed a solid field for the level 13 nights ago when breaking well and sitting a perfect fourth during the initial part of the journey and then winning easily despite racing wide throughout. The figure earned from that effort is very competitive for this event, plus the race should set up nicely for Asem, as she will be facing a field with two runners that need the lead. Asem will be the one to watch late at a nice price for a barn that’s been red-hot (38%) over the last 30 nights of racing.

Now, the star of the show, Friday’s entries.