Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as the Derby field starts to take shape.

Before we get to the good stuff, let’s get caught up on a little news.

--In what has to be a big victory for trainer Bob Baffert, the Arkansas Racing Commission overturned a decision by its stewards to disqualify two of Baffert’s horses and suspend him for 15 days after the horses tested positive for the medication lidocaine last year. Both Charlatan, winner of a division of the Arkansas Derby, and Gamine, winner of an allowance race, were reinstated as winners. The Commission came to the conclusion that the amount of medication administered was not performance enhancing and there was credible evidence that the positives were the result of contamination. Baffert still has to pay $5,000 for each of the positive results. Matt Hegarty of the Daily Racing Forum has a comprehensive report on the two days of hearings. Just click here for that story.

--The monthly meeting of the California Horse Racing Board was relatively uneventful with one license not being approved because all the paperwork wasn’t done, another being approved because it was done and bringing more clarity and consistency to riding crop violations and possession of electrical devices. But the meeting hit it hits lowest point since May, 2019, when jockey Norberto Arroyo, Jr., made a not so veiled sexist remark directed at the animal-rights activists. On Wednesday, one animal-rights person made a threat to capture George Floyd-like video at the track. Not sure if the Board was too shocked to say anything or just lacked backbone, but it wasn’t until a minute or so later when Commissioner Wendy Mitchell brought up the stunningly inappropriate nature of the comment. Only then did the rest of the Board go into Pied Piper mode and signal their agreement and endorsement of Mitchell rebuking the commentor.

--In Monday’s newsletter, we reported on the injury to Multiplier in the Tokyo City Cup on Sunday and the hopes he could be saved. Unfortunately, further diagnostics indicated the injuries were more extensive than originally thought and he was euthanized on Monday morning

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Jon White is back with his Triple Crown rankings. Jon is one of the foremost historians on horse racing as well as being the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He even has done stints as a steward. He does it all. So, let’s get right to it with his Kentucky Derby rankings as we are one week from the Kentucky Derby. It’s brought to you courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Take it away, Jon.

“Essential Quality, who holds the top spot in this newsletter’s rankings, looms a clear-cut favorite for the 147th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby a week from Saturday at Churchill Downs.

“Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality overcame a troubled trip to win a six-furlong maiden race by four lengths when unveiled at Churchill Downs last year on Sept. 5. Later in the afternoon at that same track, Authentic won the Kentucky Derby.

“Authentic provided trainer Bob Baffert with his record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby victory. Ben Jones is the only other trainer to have won the race six times. Baffert seeks to break the record this year with Medina Spirit, who worked six furlongs Thursday in 1:12.20 at Santa Anita. The Florida-bred Protonico colt, who is No. 5 in this week’s rankings, finished second as the 4-5 favorite in the Santa Anita Derby on April 3.

“Thirty-four weeks after Essential Quality’s maiden triumph, he is scheduled to run and hopes to win the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. He’s coming off a neck victory in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes on April 3. When Essential Quality won the Blue Grass, he remained undefeated in five starts.

“The Kentucky Derby media guide provides a list of all the undefeated starters going back to 1915.

“In 1915, the great filly Regret was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby, which she won the in front-running fashion by two lengths.

“Regret became the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby. It would be 65 years before another filly won it, that being Genuine Risk in 1980. Winning Colors in 1988 remains the only other filly whose name is on the Kentucky Derby’s honor roll of past winners.

“Going back to 1915, have been 30 undefeated horses to start in the Kentucky Derby. Nine exited race with their perfect record intact: Regret (1915), Morvich (1922), Majestic Prince (1969), Seattle Slew (1977), Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Nyquist (2016) and Justify (2018).

“Another undefeated horse finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. However, after Maximum Security crossed the finish line in front, the stewards disqualified him and placed him 17th for causing interference.

“Since 1915, no more than two undefeated horses have run in the same Kentucky Derby. Three such horses are scheduled to start this year.

“Along with Essential Quality, the other two undefeated Kentucky Derby candidates this year are Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World and Tampa Bay Derby winner Helium. Rock Your World is three for three, as is Helium.

“As of Thursday, Churchill Downs listed the following horses, in alphabetical order, as likely starters in this year’s Kentucky Derby: Bourbonic, Caddo River, Dynamic One, Essential Quality, Get Her Number, Helium, Hidden Stash, Hot Rod Charlie, Highly Motivated, Known Agenda, Like the King, Mandaloun, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon, O Besos, Rock Your World, Sainthood, Soup and Sandwich and Super Stock.

“Dream Shake, who finished third in the Santa Anita Derby, is listed as a possible starter in the Kentucky Derby. Next up in order of Kentucky Derby eligibility are possible starters Hozier, King Fury, Keepmeinmind and Starrininmydreams if a slot in the 20-stall starting gate opens up.

“The draw for post positions will be held this coming Tuesday.

“As for the Kentucky Derby rankings this week, Helium is back on the list at No. 10, while Concert Tour is gone after being No. 3 last week. Churchill officials received word via a Baffert text last Saturday that Concert Tour would not be running in the Kentucky Derby.

“According to Baffert, Concert Tour needs a little extra time before his next race after finishing third as the 3-10 favorite in Oaklawn Park’s Arkansas Derby on April 10. ‘We were disappointed in his run [in the Arkansas Derby],’ Baffert said in a Daily Racing Form story written by Jay Privman. ‘He struggled. We’ll point to the Preakness [on May 15].’

“Joel Rosario, who rode Concert Tour in the Arkansas Derby, now will be reunited with the John Sadler-trained Rock Your World in the Kentucky Derby. Rosario is replacing Umberto Rispoli, who guided the Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt to a 4 1/4-length Santa Anita Derby victory in his dirt debut.

“Rosario rode Rock Your World when he won a grass sprint at Santa Anita in his career debut on New Year’s Day. Rispoli then was aboard Rock Your World when he was victorious in both the Pasadena Stakes on Santa Anita’s turf course Feb. 27 and the subsequent Santa Anita Derby.

“Only Essential Quality occupies a higher spot than Rock Your World in this newsletter’s rankings.

“Here are this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Essential Quality (1)

2. Rock Your World (2)

3. Known Agenda (4)

4. Hot Rod Charlie (3)

5. Medina Spirit (7)

6. Highly Motivated (6)

7. Midnight Bourbon (8)

8. Mandaloun (9)

9. Super Stock (10)

10. Helium (NR)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita is back with Friday racing for the remainder of the meeting. Today’s card is nine races starting at 1 p.m. Turf racing is back in full force with all the odd numbered races on the grass. The feature is for Cal-breds 3 and up going 6 ½ furlongs on the turf. The favorite, at 5-2, is Fratelli for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Flavien Prat. The 5-year-old gelding is four-of-11 lifetime and is coming off a win in an allowance/optional claimer. The second favorite is Johnny Podres at 7-2 for Steve Miyadi and Giovanni Franco. He has one win in 13 starts but with four seconds. His only win came Jan. 5 of last year for the 4-year-old gelding. Post is around 4:53 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 5, 9, 6, 7, 6 9 (1 also eligible), 9, 9.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 5 Lady Robin (10-1)

Lady Robin is owned and trained by the small stable of Lorenzo Campuzano and jumps multiple classes Friday shipping from Arizona. Lady has the top last race speed and as much back speed as the top choices in this wide-open race and a great closing kick. The horse won easily on April 8 and turns around quickly Friday, something the horse has done many times and also raced well on. This race run 30 times has been won by horses over 5-1 33% so this is a spread race in Pick 5 tickets. Risked for a claim and bonus ship and win money the 10-1 price is a very nice value to start the Friday card.

Sunday’s result: Cezanne blew the competition away but Fight On did race strongly and against weaker competition next out should be watched.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only game in town at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“Sunday is the big night this weekend at Los Alamitos when 66 juveniles will compete in the nine trials to the Grade 2 $297,700 Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity at 300 yards. The 10 fastest qualifiers will move on to compete in the first futurity final of the year.

“Many of the horses that I have included in my recent top 10 list of local juveniles are entered including previously top ranked horses Valente One, a half-length winner in his debut on April 2 thanks to strong finishing kick. Racing in the fourth trial, the Corona Cartel colt will start from post three and will be ridden by Armando Viramontes. This trial will also feature La Blue Amore, who I ranked as high as second. The Kiddy Up filly debuted with one of the most impressive maiden wins of the season on March 20 to score a 1 ¼ length win.

“Other highly regarded winners on Sunday are Mookkie and Southern Best, who will be in the fifth trial. The latter has already started twice this year, finishing third in his debut at 220 yards on March 20 before returning with a half-length victory. The only two in the trials who have won at 300 yards and Woman Secret and Commander Cartel, who will be in the second heat.

“As for the other programs this week, top broodmare Dasha Freda has already seen one of her 2019 foals, Dasha Good Reason, come away victorious in his Los Alamitos debut last Sunday night. Dasha Freda, the dam of 2015 AQHA divisional champions Walk Thru Fire and Ima Fearless Hero, could have two other of her foals score victories on Friday when Dasha Dynasty and Sweet Dasha Fire each make their first career starts. In the sixth race, Dasha Dynasty has an excellent chance to give Dasha Freda her second victory of the meet. In the seventh, it’ll be the Walk Thru Fire filly Sweet Dasha Fire will look to give his dam what could be a trifecta of winners over a six-night span.

“Both Dasha Dynasty and Sweet Dasha Fire enter after sharp workouts. The colt posted a :12.40 clocking on April 3, while the filly recorded a :12.50 flyer that same morning. There have been a few occasions where siblings of the same age have shined here. Last year, the full-brothers Nomadic and Circle City won graded derby. In 2018, Remember Me Rose had three foals (The Revenant, Remember To Dash and Remember The Rose) qualify to Grade 1 futurities.

“Los Alamitos Winter Derby finalist AP A Special Takeoff will face the stakes placed sprinters Rox Win and Unstoppable One in the second of two allowance events on Saturday night. There will also be a trio of juvenile races featuring several of the standouts from recent morning workouts. In the $12,700 allowance feature, AP A Special Takeoff will look to score his first win since the Winter Derby trials in a 330-yard race. Meanwhile, Rox Win has finished in the money in eight of his last nine starts, including a second-place finish in last year’s Corona Chick Handicap. As for Unstoppable One, he finished in the Grade 2 Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity a year ago.

“After being sidelined with foot and knee injuries since last November, jockey Jesus Rios Ayala returned last weekend. The four-time Los Alamitos leading quarter-horse rider wasted no time in returning to the winner’s circle, winning three of his first four mounts during his comeback weekend. Rios Ayala’s goal during his recovery period was to be ready for the trials to the Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity on Sunday night. By the looks of it, Rios Ayala is ready for the trials.

“Burgart’s at Los Alamitos Race Course, the new sports bar and wagering room, will reopen to limited capacity and feature simulcast wagering starting on Saturday. The room features over 60 HDTVs and easy to access self-service wagering terminals. Admission is $5.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 6 Wild Cat Canyon (5-1)

He exits a career best number on my comparison speed charts when running a solid second to a well meant winner 27 nights ago. Wild Cat Canyon loves to run at Los Alamitos and at this distance, as he’s won twice and finished second two other times in his five outings here. He sat behind the winner in his last and chased throughout. With that competitive number in his holster along with this runner’s love for this track, we’ll push the 5-year-old to sit another good trip and be a player for all the board placings and at a nice price.

And now the star of the show, Friday’s entries.