U.S. is predicted to lead the medal count again at 2020 Tokyo Olympics

A man walks past the Olympic rings in Tokyo on Tuesday, a year from the start of the 2020 Summer Games.
(Jae C. Hong / Associated Press)

A sports data company is predicting that, for the seventh consecutive time, the U.S. team will lead all nations with an estimated 126 medals at the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

China is expected to win 81 medals, with host Japan benefiting from a significant home-field advantage to finish third with 67, according to the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table.

The forecast is based on results from previous Olympics, world championships and World Cups, the company said.

Women could enjoy heightened attention in Tokyo, with 46% of events devoted to females, 48% to males and 6% involving mixed or open competition.


A year before the start of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, organizers have unveiled the gold, silver and bronze medals that will be awarded to athletes next summer.

“Tokyo 2020 will mark the first time that less than half of the events at a Summer Games are for male competitors only,” Gracenote said.

The American prediction includes medals in 30 different events — which would set an Olympic record — for a total of 51 golds.

The predicted medals table shows Russia, Great Britain, Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy rounding out the top 10, in that order.