Horse racing newsletter: Bob Baffert gets his 3,000th win

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we look at the shrinking Santa Anita race schedule.

Saturday at Santa Anita was the kind of day that brings optimism to those in racing. You had an undefeated horse build his Kentucky Derby credentials, a Hall of Fame trainer get his 3,000^th win, and a bunch of exciting races with good-sized fields.

But it’s becoming more apparent that it’s difficult to put on quality cards on a daily basis. While safety remains the top priority at Santa Anita, and it seems as if progress is being made there, the real danger to the longevity of California racing is the declining horse population.

Sunday’s card is down to seven races and the $75,000 Baffle Stakes for 3-year-olds going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf was canceled when only three horses entered. If there was still sprint racing on the 6 1/2 -furlong downhill course would the race have filled? Who knows?

In addition, Santa Anita has canceled the next two Thursday cards. There was no racing scheduled for Feb. 20 because of a Monday card on Martin Luther King Day (Feb. 17), so the next Thursday card will be Feb. 27. Unless it too gets canceled.

The California Horse Racing Board mandated that Santa Anita has to cancel 12 cards during its meet that doesn’t end until June 21. The track has already used up four of them, counting the next two, and the weather has been pretty good. I’m taking the Over on this one.

“What we’re doing is we have the flex days, so we’re trying to balance out the product quality,” said Aidan Butler, acting executive director for California racing for The Stronach Group.

“We ran a four-day week this week and Thursday wasn’t good at all. People didn’t find it that interesting. I’m not saying we’re going to three days but we’re going to keep an eye on it. I think for a while we’re going to do two three-[day weeks] and then a four-[day week] and see how it plays out. … I’d rather run three good days than stretch it out to four.”

On the safety front, the numbers are down dramatically. Last year, through January, there had been 11 racing and training deaths. This year the number is five. Now there is a caveat. Santa Anita has had less racing than it did a year ago. And, fewer horses in the barns. But still, five is better than 11, but zero remains the goal.

Super Bowl predictions

Let’s face it, the only thing anyone cares about today is the Super Bowl. So, what do the horseman think about the game? I’d like to tell you I did all this work, but it was Mike Willman of Santa Anita who mined the backstretch for these predictions. In case you forgot, the Kansas City Chiefs are either one- or 1½-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers.

Bob Baffert, Hall of Fame trainer–Chiefs, Mahomes baby!

Vann Belvoir, trainer–Chiefs.

David Bernstein, trainer—Gonna pick the California team.

Dan Blacker, trainer—Kansas City.

Aidan Butler, Santa Anita bigshot—I’ll go 49ers.

Jack Carava, trainer–Chiefs.

Ben Cecil, trainer–I like the 49ers.”

Phil D’Amato, trainer—49ers.

Keith Desormeaux, trainer–49ers, easy money.

Asa Espinoza, jockey—“I always want to ride the favorite, Kansas City.

Carla Gaines, trainer—Niners.

Paddy Gallagher, trainer–Clippers.

Victor Garcia, trainer—Kansas City.

Aaron Gryder, jockey–Kansas City.

Bruce Headley, trainer–I don’t know.

Andrew Lerner, trainer–I’ll go Niners.

Richard Mandella, Hall of Fame—Chiefs, I like that quarterback.

Ron McAnally, Hall of Fame trainer–Chiefs, but I’m hoping the 49ers do well.

Michael McCarthy, trainer—I love Mahomes, but I think the 49ers are pretty good.

Jeff Metz, trainer—49ers.

Steve Miyadi, trainer—49ers.

Nate Newby, Santa Anita marketing executive—Chiefs.

Hector Palma, trainer—Kansas City.

Marcel Polanco, trainer—49ers.

Dave Randall—owner/trainer—49ers.

Gary Stevens, Hall of Fame jockey–Kansas City.

Tim Yakteen, trainer—49ers.

Santa Anita review

There were three graded stakes on Saturday. I wrote a story on them and talked to Bob Baffert about what it’s like to win 3,000 races. You can find if you just click here.

Now, let’s get right to the recaps.

Grade 3 $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes: Trainer Bob Baffert won his 3,000^th North American thoroughbred race when Thousand Words remained undefeated in three tries to win this 1 1/16 mile race for 3-year-olds.

Thousand Words stablemate, High Velocity, set the pace to the top of the stretch when jockey Flavien Prat was able to guide Thousand Words through a hole and into the lead. The winning margin was three-quarters of a length.

Thousand Words, as the favorite, paid $3.20, $2.60 and $2.10. Royal Act was second followed by High Velocity, Tizamagician, Encoder and Zimba Warrior.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Bob Baffert (winning trainer): “Prat knows him pretty well, I didn’t give him any instructions. Both riders were kind of on their own. Prat says he is getting better, he was a sort of immature colt. He grinds and you gotta really work at him. Being stuck down inside he got the worst of it. Usually a young horse like that they don’t run that well and they don’t respond. He’s got that big long stride and the further the better with him. You could tell about the last 50 yards he was really getting going. He came back he wasn’t even tired so that is a good sign. He is progressing with every race and to win three in a row like that it is pretty impressive.

(on 3,000 wins) “I’ve always thought things happen for a reason. Running in the Bob Lewis, with a horse named Thousand Words and going for 3,000 wins. I mean you can’t make that up. I had a feeling it was gonna happen in this race, I’ve had a lot of good people work for me through the years, the first 50 wins were probably the hardest, 100 were life changers. I feel very blessed and fortunate that I’ve been able to last this long in this business and do so well after coming from the quarter horse business. I’ve never dreamnt of coming into thoroughbreds, there was never one instant I was thinking about it. I came over with [owners] Mike Pegram and Hal Earnhardt who I still have after all these years, they are a big part of the team.”

Flavien Prat (winning jockey): “He ran very well. He put me in a good spot and he was comfortable down there. He took the dirt (in his face) well and when I asked him to run, he really accelerated.”

Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes: United, who finished second to Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar came four-wide in the stretch to win the 1 ¼ mile turf race by half-a-length.

As the favorite, United paid $3.60, $2.40 and $2.10. Cleopatra’s Strike was second followed by Oscar Dominguez, Brown Storm, Multiplier and Chosen Vessel.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Richard Mandella (winning trainer): “You could see there wasn’t a lot of pace in the race. He’s got a big lumbering stride and you don’t want to get in the way of it. We just let him cruise along and that worked out well.

Flavien Prat (winning jockey): “I think I made a mistake last time [in the Hollywood Turf Cup on Dec. 1]. I was trying to keep him covered up and it didn’t end up the way I wanted and I found myself too far back. [Saturday] we broke off and we were in the race [early]. He just [kept running] to the wire.”

Grade 2 $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes: The race run by Midcourt might have been the most impressive of the day. He broke on top and led all the way around the 1 1/8 mile race to win by 3 ½ lengths.

Midcourt paid $6.40, $3.60 and $3.00. He was followed by Two Thirty Five, Combatant, King Abner, Restrainedvengence, Instagrand, Roadster, California Street and Bold Endeavor.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

John Shirreffs (winning trainer): “Victor [Espinoza] wasn’t sure if he was going to go to the lead or sit off the pace, but the horse put himself in the race and if he wanted to run that way, he didn’t want to take him out of it. Yes, it is gratifying to see him make the lead, relax and finish like he did. He’s been a project, but a good project. We’ll stay home and run in the Santa Anita Handicap [on March 7].

Victor Espinoza (winning jockey): “With him you never know how he is gonna perform coming out of the gate. He could go either way. [Saturday] he wanted to run, he broke not very quick, but when I encouraged him to go he wanted to do his own thing. I wasn’t going to take him out of his race, so I just let him run and cruise around.

“When I took the lead and was able to open up one or two lengths that was the key for him. We were in a good spot and in great shape all the way around, to be able to control the race that was enough for him. I started celebrating but I didn’t want to be too excited so early because its horse racing and anything can happen but we got the job done. He’s a really talented horse in his own way. I have confidence in him because John Shirreffs has done an amazing job with him and it makes my job much easier to know that John is going to have him ready to go into the race.”

Santa Anita preview

As mentioned earlier, Santa Anita is down to seven races and canceled the Biffle Stakes. The big news is there is an early 11:30 a.m. post so people can watch the Super Bowl. You can go home or watch it at the track. There are three allowance/optional claimers, three claimers and one maiden special. Two of the races are on the turf. Two of the allowance races are worth $59,000. The conditions are exactly the same, so we’ll skip naming a feature for Sunday. Enjoy the game.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 6, 5, 5, 7, 7, 8.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 3 An Eddie Surprise (8-1)

An Eddie Surprise has as much back speed, last race speed, class and closing kick off all the horses in this race except he is sitting at an 8-1 morning-line price. The favorite has won this race once from 20 races and horses priced over 5-1 have won 45%. That screams look for value to me. Eddie ran third in the Grade 3 Las Cienega Jan. 11 at this distance after winning here prior, again at this distance Jan. 4. The quick turnaround may have been too much. A two-week break we see a maintenance work last week. Jockey Mario Gutierrez is winning 23% for trainer Doug O’Neill. They are risking this horse for a claim today.

Saturday’s result: Tijori was bet down to 9/2 in part because Flavien Prat was riding but after a clean break faded badly. Posit, the other Simon Callaghan horse, drifted out to an awesome 15-1 price for us and went gate to wire under a great ride from Mario Gutierrez. Posit paid $32.20 for the win. Nice start to the day.

Who goofed, I’ve got to know? Sunrise Royale ran fourth on Friday, not third.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Gulfstream (6): Grade 3 $150,000 Forward Gal Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Winner: Tonalist’s Shape ($2.60)

Gulfstream (8): Grade 3 $100,000 Sweetest Chant Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Cheermeister ($17.20)

Gulfstream (9): Grade 3 $150,000 Swale Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Mischevious Alex ($11.80)

Aqueduct (8): Grade 3 $250,000 Withers Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Max Player ($12.80)

Gulfstream (10): $100,000 Dania Beach Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Field Pass ($26.60)

Oaklawn (6): $150,000 Martha Washington Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Winner: Taraz ($2.20)

Gulfstream (11): Grade 2 $350,000 Holy Bull Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Tiz the Law ($4.60)

Oaklawn (8): $125,000 American Beauty Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Special Relativity ($14.00)

Santa Anita (6): Grade 3 $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Thousand Words ($3.20)

Santa Anita (7): Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Winner: United ($3.60)

Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Midcourt ($6.40)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PST:

1:25 Aqueduct (7): $100,000 Busanda Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Harvey’s Little Goil (2-1)

Now, the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.