Horse racing newsletter: Welcome back!

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as Ron Flatter gives you some things to think about in regards to finding the Kentucky Derby winner.

Before we get to Ron Flatter, I want to welcome back those of you who haven’t been getting the newsletter for a couple of weeks. It’s been there, you just weren’t getting it. And, by the way, you can always find it on our website www.latimes.com/sports, but unless you are a LA Times digital subscriber, I believe you are limited to two a month.

Anyway, the experts said that when we switched vendors, an undisclosed number of you ended up on a “global suppression list,” whatever that is. I was on that list and wasn’t getting it myself. But, we think it has all, or mostly, been resolved.

Finally, it’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He digs down into trends and tries to apply them to the Kentucky Derby. Ron, what insights do you have?

“Trends may be at once telling as they are treacherous. Sports bettors know it. Horseplayers know it. And Kentucky Derby bettors in particular were reminded of it last year.

“When the now-retired Country House was promoted by stewards to replace Maximum Security as the 2019 Derby winner, it marked the first time since 2012 that the favorite did not win. At 65-1, he was the longest shot to win the race since Donerail did it at record winning odds of 91-1 in 1913.

“That was the most obvious trend that belied bettors last year. But it was not the only one.

“Country House was the first Derby winner since Super Saver in 2010 that failed to win his last prep. He was also the first since Mine That Bird in 2009 to lose his last three preps.

“Conversely, every winner between 2012 and 2018 was undefeated as a 3-year-old going into – and coming out – of the Derby. Perhaps not coincidentally, that included every year since the prep-points qualifying system was established for 2013.

“Scratching beneath this surface, Country House was also the first Derby winner since Orb in 2013 to come from at least mid-pack and end up in the winner’s circle, even if it took a 22-minute video review by publicly reticent stewards.

“But even if Maximum Security’s first-place finish had been allowed to stand, he would have been the first Derby winner to lead at every call since War Emblem in 2002. He also would have been the first pacesetter to finish in the money since Dortmund placed second in 2015. One way or another, then, last year’s race was destined to be an outlier.

“So, shall bettors draw a line through last year? Since the payout on a $2 win ticket was $132.40, it would be risky and foolhardy to think that Country House’s victory established a new trend. The same might be said of 2018, when Justify became only the second Derby winner ever to have gone without a race the year before.

“Based on all this, Derby bettors would presumably be wise to stick with horses that raced at age 2, are still undefeated at age 3, chase the pace and wind up as the post-time favorite May 2. Since that last one is impossible to pinpoint right now, the other criteria create a process of elimination.

“Under this scenario, any 3-year-old that has lost a race this year would be out of the mix. Independence Hall (12-1 in Kentucky Derby futures at William Hill Nevada), Sole Volante (12-1), Enforceable (20-1), Mr. Monomoy (20-1), Untitled (20-1), Storm the Court (22-1) all would be knocked out.

“The next step would be to throw out all the pacesetters and closers, basically any horse that does not have a Quirin Speed Points designation of “E/P” (early presser). Out go the likes of off-the-pace horses Tiz the Law (6-1) and Maxfield (10-1) and speedsters like Nadal (10-1), Authentic (12-1) and Eight Rings (15-1)

“Oh, yes. Charlatan (12-1) would have to go, because there cannot possibly be another late bloomer like Justify, right?

“So, what is left? Breeders’ Cup disappointment Dennis’ Moment (8-1) and ungraded-stakes winner Chance It (20-1) go next Saturday in the Fountain of Youth. Thousand Words (12-1), Honor A.P. (14-1) and Basin (20-1) are on deck to race next month. Gouverneur Morris (15-1) just won an allowance race last week. Risen Star winner Modernist (40-1), Swale victor Mischevious Alex (70-1) and maiden winners Edge Of Fire (50-1), Kingmeister (100-1) and Market Analysis (100-1) are among the longer shots that have raced this year and still check all the boxes.

“Of course this process of elimination is fraught with slippery premises that might not apply in a year when no 3-year-old has stepped up to exclaim its dominance on the road to the Derby.

“Come to think of it, weren’t we on the same path at this time last year? And the year before? Maybe exceptions are turning into the new rule.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. On the current episode of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, From the Eclipse Awards to betting on drug-free competition. Free-lance writer Tom Pedulla has strong opinions about hot-button issues in racing. Just click here.

Who goofed, I’ve got to know?

It was me, of course. In Friday’s Golden Gate preview, I referenced a gas leak last week. Well, that was several weeks ago. It seems I copied over that old intro instead of picking up the one we used the previous week. So, my apologies to the personable Matt Dinerman and those of you who look forward to the Golden Gate preview each racing week.

Great to be Canadian

We don’t usually spend any time talking about big ticket winners or carryovers, but thought it worth mentioning that someone betting out of the Woodbine hub in Toronto had the only winning ticket in Santa Anita’s Rainbow Six. It was worth $605,997.

Now the Rainbow Six, a 20-cent bet, is one of the biggest sucker plays in the game when there is more than one winner, which is most of the time. However, if you are the only winner or there is a mandatory payout it’s a great bet, which is rare. Think about it, if more than one person hits, the payout is greatly reduced because of the forced carryover. It makes the takeout in the 40% range.

Just in case you thought Friday’s winner was some mom-and-pop bettor, the winning ticket was purchased for $2,048 (Canadian), or 10,240 combinations. In case you wondered, the number of combinations, after scratches, was 86,400. (The conversion rate will cause those numbers to be slightly different, but you get the idea.)

Santa Anita review

The feature on Friday was a maiden special for 4-year-olds and up going a mile for $55,000. The winner was Striking a Pose, the longest shot on the board at 26-1, held off favorite Muralistto win by three-quarters of a length.

Striking a Pose paid $54.20, $16.20 and $7.20. Muralist was second and Paint Me Lucky finished third.

“He’s a pretty nice horse to do that first time out,” winning trainer Mark Glatt told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “I didn’t know if he was fit enough and I didn’t think he’d be that close to the pace, but it worked out great. We got him in late November and he’s out of a really good mare. He’s a half-brother to Stryker Phd, who won the Longacres Mile twice, so he’s got a right to be a good horse.”

Umberto Rispoli was the winning jockey.

“We talked this morning and we knew he was a big striding horse, so we decided to just let him find his best stride,” Rispoli said. “He jumped the [starting gate] tracks in the last 50 yards, but he kept running.”

Santa Anita preview

I’ve been dumping on the Santa Anita cards of late, but have to say that Saturday’s nine-race card offers a couple of full fields, including a graded stake. Four of the races are on the turf. There are three maiden specials and one allowance/optional claimer. First post is at 12:30 p.m.

The feature is the fifth race, the Grade 2 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes for fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. It has a field of 12. The favorite is Jolie Olimpica, at 8-5, for trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith. She is undefeated in four starts, three of them coming in Brazil. Last out, she set a track record at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf winning the Grade 3 Las Cienegas. Now, that distance hasn’t been around very long, but it’s still a record. She won at a mile in Brazil.

Carressa is the second favorite at 4-1 for John Shirreffs and Victor Espinoza. She has won three-of-five lifetime, including three of her last four and her last two. She won the Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes last out in her first turf race. Post is around 2:30 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 6, 5, 8, 12, 7, 5, 12, 9.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE FOUR: No. 5 Kiss Today Goodbye (10-1)

Kiss Today Goodbye makes the third start off the layoff for trainer Eric Kruljac with red-hot jockey Umberto Rispoli riding. Last out Feb. 1^st, Rispoli rode for the first time and made a little too late closing move for third place, three lengths back. This jockey is winning 33% for the trainer and in the money 78%. We see a sharp work last week and the horse races protected on Saturday. 10-1 is a great value for us. Look for Kiss to be much closer when launching that late drive to win. This is not just a value play for a big price for me in this race. This horse is the top choice in my eyes.

Friday’s result: Remember to Smile tracked nicely in third into the turn and looked ready to fly down the rail but had nothing and faded.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:15 Tampa Bay (6): $100,000 Turf Dash Stakes, 4 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Extravagant Kid (5-2)

1:04 Gulfstream (9): Grade 3 $100,000 World of Trouble Sprint Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Lasting Legacy (7-5)

1:15 Tampa Bay (8): $100,000 Lightning City Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Jean Elizabeth (3-1)

1:50 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Haynesfield Stakes, NY-breds 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Mr. Buff (4-5)

2:29 Santa Anita (5): Grade 2 $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Jolie Olimpica (8-5)

3:09 Oaklawn (9): $125,000 Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes, Ark-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Bye Bye J (5-2)

Chris Wade’s LA Pick of the Day

RACE SEVEN: No. 5 Razzel Dazzel (9-2)

Filly should get a clear path to the wire from the outside post in this 110-yard race and is much better than her last effort shows. In that outing 34 nights ago, she broke slow and out to lose over a length of ground at this same shortened distance where a minor mistake can be a disaster. The sorrel filly finished fairly well on her own and displayed a solid gallop out through the club-house turn.

Now, the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.