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One-third of Mexicans have been exposed to coronavirus, study suggests

Woman being sprayed with disinfectant outside church
A woman is sprayed with disinfectant before entering church to attend Mass in Mexico’s Nezahualcóyotl state.
(Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)
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As many as one-third of Mexicans may have been exposed to the coronavirus by the end of 2020, according to a study of random blood samples taken between February and December of last year.

Antibodies were found in 33.5% of samples from Mexican blood banks and medical laboratory tests unrelated to COVID-19. The levels varied according to regions; the highest exposure rate was in the northwest, from Baja California to Chihuahua, at 40.7%. The lowest was in western states, at 26.6%. In general, areas along the U.S. border had higher rates.

Victor Borja of the Mexican Social Security Institute said the rate may have risen by as many as 10 percentage points on average nationwide following the huge surge in cases in January. But even if the exposure rate is currently as much as 43.5%, Borja stressed that the country was still far from herd immunity.

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Moreover, the study suggested that about 86% of those infected had developed effective antibodies, but that around 14% hadn’t and could be re-infected.

Mexican authorities also announced that they detected three cases of the South African variant of the coronavirus Tuesday. The British and Brazilian variants have already been detected in the country, but Mexico does relatively little variant testing.

The country has received about 22.6 million vaccine doses and given almost 17 million shots, covering more than 12 million people, some of whom have received two doses. That remains a small number for a country of 126 million. Mexico has vaccinated many of its senior citizens and plans to begin vaccinating people between the ages of 50 and 59 in May.

Mexico’s vaccine rollout has been painfully slow. Only 4% of Mexicans have gotten at least one dose. Those with the means seek COVID shots in U.S.

March 31, 2021

Assistant Health Secretary Hugo López-Gatell said Mexico would soon start receiving Pfizer vaccines from U.S. plants, rather than from plants in Europe. That will make the logistics of importing the shots easier.

There have been about 216,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths, but Mexico does so little testing that many people die without having been tested.

A preliminary government review of death certificates suggested that excess deaths attributable to COVID-19 reached 316,344 by the start of March. There have been 29,395 test-confirmed deaths since then, for a total of 346,110.

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Authorities have suggested that, with almost 350,000 suspected coronavirus-related deaths and about 40 million Mexicans exposed to the virus, the mortality rate could be just under 1%.

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