China could win medal race

Jim Scherr isn’t conceding anything.

The chief executive of the U.S. Olympic Committee is merely being realistic in saying China probably will win the most medals at the Beijing Games

That’s not supposed to matter. The idea of the Olympics is to unite people in the spirit of fair play, but the medal standings are inevitably twisted into validation of political systems.

China had the fourth-highest medal total at Atlanta in 1996, third-best behind the U.S. and Russia in 2000 and third-best at Athens in 2004 -- although it was second to the U.S. in gold medals, 36-32.

“With the home-field advantage and the vast resources it is pouring into building its Olympic program, China has to be considered the favorite for the overall medal title,” Scherr said. “Russia will be strong, as well, probably stronger than most people realize.”

Scherr, a 1988 freestyle wrestling Olympian, predicted the Beijing Games will be “one of the most competitive and compelling” in history. The still-incomplete U.S. team will maintain many of its traditional strengths but will have questions in spots where world medalists gave way to upstarts during the trials process.

USOC officials don’t make public medal projections, which is smart. Overestimate the final tally and the team looks like a failure. Underestimate and you look like you don’t know where your training grants went.

Bubba Thornton, head coach of the U.S. men’s track and field team, shares the USOC’s philosophy.

“I’ve never talked about numbers. I think that when you get in that situation it’s one of those pressures we don’t need,” he said last week. “I hope they hear our national anthem enough that they’re humming it when they leave.”

The Chinese and American anthems will be heard often during the gymnastics competition. China’s men won the team title at last year’s world championships, led by all-around winner Yang Wei. Xiao Qin won on pommel horse and Chen Yibing won on still rings. The U.S. men were shut out in the event finals but had two fourth-place finishes.

However, the U.S. competed without Athens all-around champion Paul Hamm, then early in his comeback. Hamm broke a bone in his right hand at the U.S. championships but can help win a team medal even at reduced effectiveness.

The U.S. women defeated China for the 2007 world team title by nearly a point, a big gap. Shawn Johnson won gold in the all-around and floor exercise, Nastia Liukin won gold on balance beam and silver on the uneven bars, and Alicia Sacramone won bronze on vault and silver on floor exercise. China’s Cheng Fei won gold on vault, Yang Yilin won bronze on the uneven bars and Li Shanshan won bronze on the beam.

Women’s basketball could also end with a U.S.-China final, as hinted by China’s victory over the U.S. in the final of a test event at the Olympic venue in April. The U.S. men won’t have to worry about China, but the rest of the world will push them.

Scherr said he hopes “breakthrough medals” U.S. athletes won in fencing and rowing at Athens will lead to sustained success. He also expects the U.S. to do well in softball, soccer, water polo, beach volleyball, taekwondo and wrestling.

But wrestling could be dicey. Although the men led the Greco-Roman standings at last year’s world championships, bronze medalist Harry Lester didn’t make the Beijing team. The Olympic trials also took down 2007 women’s freestyle world medalists Kristie Marano, Katie Downing and Sara McMann.

In several sports, China won’t face much competition from the U.S. China has a stranglehold on all four table tennis events and should dominate diving. At the 2007 world championships, Chinese athletes won gold in nine of 10 events and a medal in all 10.

China should also thrive in weightlifting, having led the medal table at last year’s world championships, with seven gold medals and 12 overall. The U.S. won none. Rowing will also put Chinese athletes on the podium thanks to a $10-million, government-built training complex.

The U.S. will clean up in swimming. Michael Phelps could win eight gold medals and China won’t win more than a couple of medals, if that.

The same will be true in track and field, where the U.S. should be a force in the sprints, 400, hurdles, pole vault and decathlon. Liu Xiang, China’s top gold-medal hope, lost his 110-meter hurdles world record to Cuba’s Dayron Robles last month. With a nation’s eyes on him, few people would want to be in his shoes.

At last year’s world championships, China won Liu’s gold, bronze in the women’s hammer throw and silver in the women’s marathon. The U.S. won 26 medals, 14 gold.

The downside: 100-meter hurdles champion Michelle Perry and long jump silver medalist Dwight Phillips didn’t make the Beijing team. Also, double-gold medalist Tyson Gay will run only the 100 after straining a muscle in the 200 at the Olympic trials. Walter Dix could be a threat in both races but hasn’t competed at the world or Olympic levels.

As the host nation, China will have huge numbers and crowd support. Scherr promised the U.S. will have “athletes who readily embrace this increased level of competition and who recognize the honor associated with representing our nation on this important international stage.”

They’ll need all those competitive instincts to win the medal race.

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Helene Elliott can be reached at helene.elliott@latimes.com. To read previous columns by Elliott, go to latimes.com/elliott.