THE GREAT PORTENDER SEES THE GRAMMYS THRU HIS CRYSTAL BALL

Peter Gabriel and Steve Winwood have scarcely had time to find spots on the wall for their recent platinum albums, and now it’s time for them to get fitted for tuxedos for the annual Grammy Awards.

The two pop veterans are almost certain to be in the running when the 29th annual Grammy nominations are announced on Thursday.

Gabriel’s “Sledgehammer” and Winwood’s “Higher Love” are both front-runners for record of the year honors, and Gabriel’s “So” and Winwood’s “Back in the High Life” are strong favorites to be nominated for album of the year.

A whopping 210 albums and 211 singles were included on the eligibility list that was mailed last month to the 5,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences. From that list, they’ll select five finalists in each of 68 categories. With totals like that, it may seem foolhardy to try to predict which records will make the final ballot. But it isn’t as hard as it looks. You just have to bear in mind that the Grammy voters tend to favor big hits that fall right in the commercial mainstream.

Not that it’s easy. Even discounting records that weren’t big hits, the numbers are formidable. Fully 88 of the singles that are eligible for record of the year reached the Top 10 on the national pop chart, and 30 of them went all the way to No. 1.

In addition, the Grammy voters--consisting of songwriters, musicians, producers and others involved in the creative end of the music business--are becoming less predictable. They used to be notoriously conservative. But in the last 10 years, the Grammys have become much more reflective of the mainstream of the music industry. More young, rock-conscious members are joining the academy each year. Last year, three of the five finalists for Record of the Year were by critical and album-rock-radio favorites: Springsteen, Dire Straits and Don Henley.

If this were 1981, such middle-of-the-road records as Dionne & Friends’ “That’s What Friends Are For,” Lionel Richie’s “Say You, Say Me” and Whitney Houston’s “Greatest Love of All” would be shoo-ins to make the Best Record finals. They were all No. 1 pop hits that enjoyed enormous visibility.

But now, middle-of-the-road entries have to compete with pop, rock and R&B; hits for a spot on the final ballot. Nobody’s going to mistake the Grammys for the New Music Awards, but it’s a much fairer contest than it used to be.

This year, that means that the red-hot Houston will probably make the finals, but that Richie and Warwick--whose hits are at a disadvantage because they peaked so early in the year--probably won’t.

Houston is likely to square off against Gabriel’s “Sledgehammer” and Winwood’s “Higher Love,” as well as Robert Palmer’s sexy rocker “Addicted to Love” and Patti LaBelle & Michael McDonald’s soulful duet, “On My Own.”

That puts “That’s What Friends Are For” and “Say You, Say Me” on the list of likely runners-up, along with Cyndi Lauper’s “True Colors,” Huey Lewis & the News’ “Stuck With You,” Simply Red’s “Holding Back the Years,” Janet Jackson’s “Nasty” and Anita Baker’s “Sweet Love.”

The obvious choice in the Album of the Year race is “Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band Live, 1975-85,” which has been No. 1 since its release last month. But the five-record boxed set came out too late to qualify for the eligibility period: Oct. 1, 1985, to Sept. 30, 1986. It’s the front-runner to win the award next year.

With that blockbuster out of the running, Gabriel’s “So” and Winwood’s “Back in the High Life” are likely to compete against Paul Simon’s “Graceland,” Barbra Streisand’s “The Broadway Album” and Janet Jackson’s “Control.”

Among the likely runners-up: Huey Lewis & the News’ “Fore!” Billy Joel’s “The Bridge,” Robert Palmer’s “Riptide,” Anita Baker’s “Rapture,” Run-D.M.C.’s “Raising Hell,” Lionel Richie’s “Dancing on the Ceiling” and Madonna’s “True Blue.”

Bruce Hornsby & the Range and Simply Red, both of whom landed No. 1 singles during 1986, are the front-runners for the Best New Artist Grammy. Other likely nominees: country star Randy Travis, R&B; singer Gregory Abbott and pop group Nu Shooz.

Likely runners-up include Cinderella, Robbie Nevil, Glass Tiger, Meli’sa Morgan and Stacey Q.

Here are the five likely nominees in pop and rock performance categories. Nominations can be for albums, singles or album tracks. The entries are listed in order of predicted finish.

Best Pop Vocal Performance, Male: Steve Winwood’s “Higher Love,” Paul Simon’s “Graceland,” Lionel Richie’s “Say You, Say Me,” Billy Ocean’s “There’ll Be Sad Songs,” Billy Joel’s “The Bridge.”

Pop Female: Barbra Streisand’s “The Broadway Album,” Cyndi Lauper’s “True Colors,” Madonna’s “Live to Tell,” Tina Turner’s “Typical Male,” Carly Simon’s “Coming Around Again.”

Pop Group: Patti LaBelle & Michael McDonald’s “On My Own,” Dionne & Friends’ “That’s What Friends Are For,” Huey Lewis & the News’ “Fore!” Simply Red’s “Holding Back the Years,” Bruce Hornsby & the Range’s “The Way It Is.”

Rock Male: Peter Gabriel’s “So,” Robert Palmer’s “Addicted to Love,” Billy Idol’s “To Be a Lover,” Eddie Money’s “Take Me Home Tonight,” David Lee Roth’s “Eat ‘Em and Smile.”

Rock Female: Tina Turner’s “Back Where You Started,” Cyndi Lauper’s “911,” Stevie Nicks’ “Rock a Little,” Pat Benatar’s “Sex as a Weapon,” Wendy O. Williams’ “Kommander of Kaos.”

Rock Group: Van Halen’s “5150,” Talking Heads’ “True Stories,” Bon Jovi’s “You Give Love a Bad Name,” ZZ Top’s “Afterburner,” Artists United Against Apartheid’s “Sun City.”

Pop oracle Grein averaged four out of five correct predictions in the seven categories he forecast last year. That inspired him to increase the number of categories he called this year to nine. If he maintains his average, he has promised to try his hand at the whole ballot next year--Best Polka Recording and all.