A HANDICAPPER’S GUIDE TO THE GRAMMYS

The first rule in forecasting the Grammys is that the voters tend to favor big, commercial hits. Each of the last five Album of the Year winners has generated at least three Top-10 singles. The 1983 winner, Michael Jackson’s “Thriller,” spun off seven .

By that logic, the album to beat this year is Janet Jackson’s “Control,” which has yielded four Top 10 singles. And the albums without a chance are Paul Simon’s “Graceland” and Barbra Streisand’s “The Broadway Album”--without one Top 40 single between them.

The second rule in forecasting the Grammys is knowing when to throw the rules out the window. This year, “Graceland” and “The Broadway Album” are my contenders for Best Album award, with “Control” a decided long-shot. Peter Gabriel’s “So” and Steve Winwood’s “Back in the High Life” are likely to finish in the middle. The winners will be announced Tuesday at nationally televised ceremonies.

There are musical and political reasons to forecast a Streisand win. She’ll probably garner all of the votes of the conservative wing of the 5,000-member National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences, while Simon figures to split the mainstream pop/rock vote with Gabriel and Winwood. Also, Streisand is the only entry on powerhouse CBS Records, while Simon, Gabriel and Winwood are all distributed by archrival Warner Bros.

But “Broadway” dropped off the national best-seller charts six months ago, and didn’t reappear even in the wake of Streisand’s Grammy nominations and her recent HBO special. And, Streisand tends to have problems in popularity contests: Her 1980 album “Guilty” was thought to be a shoo-in for Album of the Year, but she lost to Christopher Cross.

That leaves “Graceland.” Simon is a long-time favorite with Grammy voters, and “Graceland” has an added sense of social purpose. The controversy over Simon’s recording in South Africa probably won’t cost many votes, and may even help by focusing attention on the album. The likely winner: Paul Simon.

The choice is much easier for Record and Song of the Year. Dionne & Friends’ “That’s What Friends Are For,” which raised more than $750,000 for AIDS research, is likely to win both awards. (The Best Song citation would go to songwriters Burt Bacharach & Carole Bayer Sager). The record would probably have won on its merits, but the social aspect makes it almost unbeatable--remember, last year both awards went to “We Are the World.” The records with the best chance at an upset: Winwood’s “Higher Love” and Gabriel’s “Sledgehammer.” The likely winner: “That’s What Friends Are For.”

The contest for Best New Artist narrows to a race between Simply Red and Bruce Hornsby & the Range. Simply Red is the only finalist also nominated in a general performance category (for “Holding Back the Years”), but Hornsby still has a slight edge. “Holding Back” peaked in July, whereas Hornsby is hot right now, both with his own hits and one he co-wrote for Grammy favorite Huey Lewis & the News. The likely winner: Bruce Hornsby & the Range.

Pop prognosticator Grein correctly predicted all five of the finalists for Album of the Year in his annual forecast of the Grammy nominations this year. He also correctly named four of the five finalists for Record of the Year. Grein averaged three out of five correct picks in the pop and rock performance categories.

GREIN’S PICKS

Female Pop Vocal: Barbra Streisand’s “The Broadway Album.”

Male Pop Vocal: Steve Winwood’s “Higher Love.”

Pop Duo/Group: Dionne & Friends’ “That’s What Friends Are For.”

Female Rock Vocal: Tina Turner’s “Back Where You Started.”

Male Rock Vocal: Peter Gabriel’s “Sledgehammer.”

Rock Duo/Group: Artists United Against Apartheid’s “Sun City.”

Female R&B; Vocal: Janet Jackson’s “Control.”

Male R&B; Vocal: Luther Vandross’ “Give Me the Reason.”

R&B; Duo/Group: Run-D.M.C.’s “Raising Hell.”

Male Country Vocal: Hank Williams Jr.’s “Ain’t Misbehavin’.”

Female Country Vocal: Reba McEntire’s “Whoever’s in New England.”

Country Duo/Group: The Judds’ “Grandpa (Tell Me ‘Bout the Good Old Days).”

Producer: Jimmy Jam & Terry Lewis.

Music Video, Short Form: Dire Straits’ “Brothers in Arms.”

Music Video, Long Form: Sting’s “Bring on the Night.”