Analysis : No Consensus on Contenders for the Derby

Horse racing is an endlessly fascinating game because it permits so many varied opinions and interpretations. Different people can watch the same race, or examine the same body of evidence, and draw widely different conclusions.

This is the reason there is no consensus about the relative merits of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby. Depending on one’s point of view, any of the prominent 3-year-olds can be seen as a solid Derby candidate or an overrated mediocrity. The best 3-year-olds are scattered around the country this spring, so there haven’t been any definitive confrontations this year. The most important races for members of this generation were the major events for 2-year-olds last fall--the prestigious Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park and the $1-million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

Polish Navy won the Champagne narrowly over Demons Begone and Bet Twice, running the mile in a swift 1:35 1/5--a time that seemed to suggest that all of these colts had talent. The three of them then headed West for Santa Anita--and all were beaten soundly. Capote won the Breeders’ Cup while other California horses ran second and third. The colts coming out of the Champagne ran fourth, fifth and seventh.

This result suggested the superiority of Capote and the whole California crop of 2-year-olds. So when another Western-based colt, Masterful Advocate, dominated stakes at Santa Anita this winter, he was immediately considered one of the favorites for the Derby. When the Daily Racing Form’s California columnist, Mike Marten, ranked the nation’s leading 3 year olds recently, he listed Capote, Masterful Advocate and a couple of other California horses -- and nobody from the East. This was perfectly logical if you evaluate horses from the who-can-beat-whom standpoint and use the Breeders’ Cup as your main point of reference.

As a speed handicapper, however, I can look at the same body of evidence and draw a very different conclusion. Masterful Advocate is a decent colt but he’s nothing special. Capote is a bum. And two of the country’s key Derby candidates may be those Breeders’ Cup also-rans, Bet Twice and Demons Begone.

Regardless of what happened after it, the Champagne was the best and fastest race run by members of this generation. The Breeders’ Cup, by contrast, was a weak, slow race--1 1/16 miles in a mediocre 1:43 4/5. The horses who finished second and third, just behind Capote, had never distinguished themselves.

If any of the three Eastern horses had delivered his top performance, he could have run away with the Breeders’ Cup. But they all went off form at the same time--partly, I would guess, because of the rigors of a transcontinental trip after such a tough race, and partly because of the speed-favoring bias of the Santa Anita strip, which helped carry Capote to a front-running victory.

I contend that Capote won the Breeders’ Cup by a fluke, over horses who are basically more talented than he is.

My theory is going to be subjected to a number of empirical tests very soon. On Saturday, Capote will make his seasonal debut in Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes. Masterful Advocate runs in the Santa Anita Derby, and I don’t expect anybody in the field to look brilliant. Bet Twice faces a tough field in the Florida Derby on the same day. Demons Begone will get his major prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 18. I have no idea who is going to emerge as the top U.S. 3-year-old. But I believe that whatever happens will prove that the outcome of the Breeders’ Cup was delusive.