Analysis : Will U2 Sweep the Grammys’ Big Three?

U2 is about to give new meaning to the term “luck of the Irish.”

The critically hailed band from Dublin has the inside track to sweep the 30th annual Grammy Awards, which will be telecast Wednesdayat 8 p.m. on CBS-TV from Radio City Music Hall in New York.

U2’s blockbuster album, “The Joshua Tree,” is a clear favorite to win the Grammy for album of the year, while its hit single, “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For,” is likely to win for record and song of the year. Only three other acts have won the three top Grammys in one year: Paul Simon in 1970, Carole King in 1971 and Christopher Cross in 1980. And U2 is a shoo-in to win in a fourth category: best rock performance by a duo or group.

How can an adventurous, critically lauded rock band like U2 sweep the Grammy Awards, which have traditionally favored pop Establishment types like Toto and Lionel Richie?

That’s easy. The 5,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences keep edging closer to the pop/rock mainstream. And U2 epitomizes the same combination of mass popularity and industry respect that propelled Paul Simon’s “Graceland” album and Steve Winwood’s “Higher Love” single into the winner’s circle last year.

That combination is so potent that follow-up singles from the Simon and Winwood collections are nominated in this year’s Grammy race for record of the year. But most voters will probably decide that those artists got their due last year, and focus instead on the three remaining candidates: “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For,” Suzanne Vega’s “Luka” and Los Lobos’ “La Bamba,” a remake of Ritchie Valens’ 1959 hit--itself an adaptation of a traditional Mexican song.

Those are also the three songs to beat in the song of the year category. The two other finalists, “Somewhere Out There” and “Didn’t We Almost Have It All,” are traditional pop ballads that may be too old-fashioned to win here.

Michael Jackson’s “Bad” is the only album with a real chance of upsetting “The Joshua Tree” in the album of the year race. Prince’s “Sign ‘O’ the Times,” Dolly Parton, Linda Ronstadt & Emmylou Harris’ “Trio” and Whitney Houston’s “Whitney” are just along for the ride.

While the Buckled One isn’t likely to win album of the year, as he did four years ago with “Thriller,” Jackson and Quincy Jones are apt to squeeze past Daniel Lanois and Brian Eno--the producers of the “The Joshua Tree”--in the producer of the year contest.

That would reflect a judgment on the part of the voters--mostly artists, producers, songwriters and arrangers--that while U2’s album was a more serious and substantial work, no one last year outdid Jackson and Jones in terms of sheer studio craft .

Jackson is also the front-runner in two male vocal performance categories. He’s likely to win in the pop field for the “Bad” album, and in R&B; for the “Bad” single.

Bruce Springsteen and Jody Watley are also likely to emerge as multiple winners. Springsteen’s “Tunnel of Love” album is almost certain to win in the combined male/female rock performance contest. And “Paradise by the C,” a track from his “Live/1975-1985” boxed set, is likely to win for best rock instrumental performance. That should provide some consolation for the fact that both albums were passed over in the album of the year nominations (probably because they split the Springsteen vote).

Of the five nominees for best new artist, Jody Watley has had by far the most commercial success, including a platinum album and a series of hit singles. But Terence Trent D’Arby--the most critically acclaimed newcomer of the year--could score an upset. In fact, he probably would be the winner if the voting were held three months from now, when his album and single will be further up the charts. As it is, Watley is apt to win, besting D’Arby, Swing Out Sister, Cutting Crew and Breakfast Club. Watley will probably pick up a second Grammy in the female R&B; category with “Looking for a New Love.”

The female pop vocal category is perhaps this year’s toughest to call. Carly Simon, Barbra Streisand and Belinda Carlisle are nominated, but the competition is really between Whitney Houston and Suzanne Vega. All objective data suggests that Houston will win: She won in 1986 with “Saving All My Love for You” and has only gotten hotter in the past two years.

But the suspicion here is that Vega will score an upset. Her “Luka,” which deals with the subject of child abuse, was widely admired as an example of social commentary in pop music. Also, there may be some backlash against Houston for too closely following the formula of her blockbuster debut album.

The competition is also stiff in the pop duo/group category. The front-runner is Bill Medley and Jennifer Warnes’ “(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life”--Warnes’ duet with Joe Cocker, “Up Where We Belong,” won in this category five years ago--but the award could almost as easily go to Los Lobos’ “La Bamba,” Linda Ronstadt and James Ingram’s “Somewhere Out There” or Swing Out Sister’s “Breakout.”

Aretha Franklin & George Michael’s “I Knew You Were Waiting (for Me)” is the record to beat in the R&B; group/duo category. Franklin is a Grammy perennial, with 12 previous awards, and Michael currently has the top-selling album in the country. Bill Withers’ “Lean on Me,” a hit last year for Club Nouveau, is apt to win for R&B; song of the year, edging out Reggie Calloway’s “Casanova” and Prince’s “U Got the Look.”

Randy Travis’ “Always & Forever” is a cinch to win the country male award, while one of his hits, “Forever and Ever, Amen,” will probably give songwriters Paul Overstreet and Don Schlitz the Grammy for country song of the year. In the country female category, K.T. Oslin’s “ ‘80s Ladies” is apt to squeeze past the latest hits by Reba McEntire, who won last year, and Rosanne Cash, who won two years ago.

Dolly Parton, Linda Ronstadt & Emmylou Harris’s “Trio” is almost certain to win for best country duo/group performance. In the new category of best country duet, look for Ronnie Milsap & Kenny Rogers’ “Make No Mistake, She’s Mine.”

Though Janet Jackson didn’t win any Grammys last year for her “Control” album, her “Control--The Videos, Part II” is expected to win this year for best concept music video. In the performance music video category, the front-runner is “The Prince’s Trust All-Star Rock Concert.”

Grein went 12 for 19 in his predictions last year. Of the big awards, he got album and song of the year right, but missed record of the year. He still winces when he hears the winner, “Higher Love.”