Kentucky Derby Probables Stepping to the Forefront

There are seven weeks and a couple dozen prep stakes races to go before the May 7 Kentucky Derby--far too early to pick the winner of the 114th Run for the Roses but not too soon for an educated guess at the probable field.

Barring injuries or unexpected breaks in form, the following are likely to be in the Churchill Downs’ 20-horse Derby gate:

BRIAN’S TIME--This small and lightly raced bay colt charged into the picture with his late rush to victory over Forty Niner in the Florida Derby. By Darby Dan Farm’s Epsom Derby-winning Roberto out of the Graustark mare Kelly’s Day, he is bred to go the distance and has the classic one-kick style that trainer John Veitch has excelled at handling.

CEFIS--Bearing the middle name of trainer Woody Stephens, this chestnut Caveat colt was just 2-4-1 with earnings of $136,477 pending a probable 14th career start in the March 20 Tampa Bay Derby. But personnel in Stephens’ barn says the horse, owned by Ryehill Farm and Robert Kirkham, will get better the longer he goes. He’s certainly bred to do so: Caveat was third in the ’83 Derby and won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths.

CHEROKEE COLONY--This son of 1981 Derby winner Pleasant Colony showed the kind of late kick that frequently wins Derbies with a second in the Young America and victory in the Flamingo Stakes. He flattened out after making a strong run at Forty Niner in the Florida Derby, but, with more than two months between starts, he may have been short on conditioning.

DYNAFORMER--Another Roberto colt and one of 20 3-year-olds nominated to the Triple Crown by trainer D. Wayne Lukas, he became a serious Derby contender when he tied the Aqueduct track record winning the 1 1/8-mile Lucky Draw Stakes March 5.

FINDER’S CHOICE and PRIVATE TERMS--Bred and owned by Stuart Janney of Ruffian fame, both colts have been impressive in running up unbeaten marks of 4-0 and 5-0 respectively. Finder’s Choice has yet to race around two turns, but both appear to have the breeding to go the Derby distance. Both have bloodlines in common with the late Ruffian. Finder’s Choice is by Buckfinder, and Private Terms is by Private Account.

FLYING VICTOR--Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this chestnut colt was impressive charging extremely wide down the stretch to finish second in the San Rafael Stakes Feb. 27. He was sired by Flying Paster, who was fifth in the 1979 Derby.

FORTY NINER--This chestnut son of Mr. Prospector won the 1987 juvenile championship on the basis of four graded stakes victories. His one-nose triumph in the Fountain of Youth Stakes is his only first in three 1988 starts, and his inability to hold the lead against late-charging Brian’s Time in the 1 1-8-mile Florida Derby raised questions about his ability to last the extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby. Still, he was beaten by only a neck, and the strong Derby tradition of his breeder-owner Claiborne Farm and trainer Stephens make him an odds-on starter.

LIVELY ONE--Trained by 1986 Derby winner Charlie Whittingham, this lightly raced Halo colt, 3-1-1 in 5 starts, is considered the best of the California candidates on the basis of his victory in the Santa Catalina Stakes at Santa Anita Feb. 10.

TEJANO--This speedster, a son of Irish sire Caro, set a juvenile earnings record in 1987, winning $1.177 million along with four graded stakes. Settled for second in most recent outing, the 6-furlong Bolsa Chica at Santa Anita, but still appears to be one of Lukas’ most likely Derby starters.

WINNING COLORS--Another in a long line of impressive fillies owned by Eugene Klein and trained by Lukas, this daughter of the Irish sire Caro, won the Santa Anita Oaks by 8 lengths to put her record at 4-1-0 in 5 starts. Though Lukas says he’s pointing her towards the May 6 Kentucky Oaks, the lack of an overwhelming favorite could easily change his mind.

Other Derby prospects to watch closely over the next few weeks include the Stephens-trained Digress; Louisiana Derby winner Risen Star; the Lukas-trained Success Express, Cougarized and Buoy; Canadian bred Regal Classic; Swale Stakes winner Seeking the Gold; the Diane Carpenter-trained Kingpoint; Young America winner Firery Ensign, and Louisiana Derby runner-up Word Pirate.