Summer’s Here, and So Is a Forecast of Rain

It officially turned summer at 8:57 Monday night, but don’t fold back the convertible roof yet. Forecasters say it could be cloudier and rainier than normal all the way through late July.

“Summer is a very dry period in Southern California, so any rain would almost make it above normal,” said Mike Smith, a meteorologist for WeatherData Inc., which provides forecasts for The Times.

“But I do think you’ll see more rain than you normally see in summer, and I think you will see more cloudiness than usual,” Smith said.

“My educated guess is that these conditions will last through mid-to-late July, and after that the pattern would be more or less up for grabs.”

The reasons, Smith said, can be found over the central United States and Mexico.

The very persistent high-pressure area over the High Plains and Rocky Mountains that is causing the drought in those areas probably will shift toward southwest Colorado and New Mexico, Smith said.

Moist Winds Could Increase Rain Chances

That will draw moist winds across Southern California from the Gulf of California and the Pacific Ocean, increasing the chance of rain.

“The other thing we’ve already started to see is a low-pressure system off the west coast of Mexico,” Smith said. “We’ve already had the first tropical storm south of Baja California somewhat earlier than they usually occur. Moisture from those may also flow into the Southern California area, giving a better chance of rain.”

Smith said beach lovers should not despair, however. “Tans may not be as good due to the cloudiness, but I’m still planning to take my vacation in Southern California,” he said. Smith is stationed in Wichita, Kan.

In the meantime, it will be more of the same in Orange County, where high temperatures Monday reached 76 in San Juan Capistrano, 75 in Santa Ana, 70 in El Toro and 65 in Newport Beach.

The weather is expected to warm slightly toward midweek, with continuing cloudy night and morning skies.