Horse Racing : Betting on Lukas’ Horses Often a Gamble

Betting on horses trained by Wayne Lukas is usually a dicey proposition. The Lukas operation may perennially be the leading stable in the country--it is currently making a joke of the Daily Racing Form’s national money list with about $10 million in purses--but horseplayers who follow the trainer’s runners will sooner or later be struck with the screaming meemies.

Having started more than 950 horses in races already this year, Lukas has won with about 20% and finished in the money half the time. Those are better numbers than the ones posted by such distinguished trainers as Charlie Whittingham, Dick Butrow, Gary Jones and Bobby Frankel and Jack Van Berg.

For instance, Van Berg, considered a premier trainer with more than 5,000 wins and third on this year’s money list with $3.1 million, has started about 100 fewer horses than Lukas and has a winning percentage of only 11%. And only one out of every three Van Berg starters has finished in the money.

What frustrates bettors investing in Lukas horses, however, is their consistent inconsistency. You never know when a Lukas runner is going to lose its form, or when a slumping horse is going to wake up and run a big race. Since Lukas runs his hundreds of horses all over the place, there have been recent examples all over the place:

--In the last days of Saratoga, Clabber Girl and the entry of Wonders Delight and Love and Affection were expected to win stakes, but they didn’t come through.

--At Monmouth Park, Lukas ran a filly, Open Mind, against a field of 2-year-old colts. She won by a neck and paid $15.60.

--At Belmont Park, Lukas’ High Brite, who had won four straight stakes at 6 furlongs, was made the 11-10 favorite at that distance in the Boojum Handicap. But High Brite was outrun at the start and wound up third, beaten by almost three lengths by Claramount, a New York-bred who had been claimed for $62,500 at Hollywood Park in June.

--Also at Belmont, Tejano, the winner of last December’s Hollywood Futurity, extended his losing streak to 11 races this year with a fourth-place finish in the Jerome Handicap. Tejano still goes off at short prices, but at least fans don’t make him the odds-on favorite anymore. During the streak, Tejano has gone off at 1-2 odds twice, plus at 4-5 and 7-10. That’s a lot of money down the sewer.

--At Del Mar, Lukas looked as though he had Sir Harry Lewis ready to run a big race, but he finished off the board in the Del Mar Handicap.

--Back at Belmont, Classic Crown had the look of a filly headed in the wrong direction. An impressive winner at Belmont last year, and a strong third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Hollywood Park, Classic Crown was 1 for 6 as a 3-year-old and the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle Handicap appeared to be too far for her. The fourth betting choice in a six-horse field, Classic Crown heard her wake-up call and was a $21.20 winner.

Compounding the difficulty in handicapping Lukas horses, their workouts seldom supply a tipoff on how they will run. Also, Lukas and his son and top assistant, Jeff, are not heavy bettors--Wayne’s wife, Shari, is more of a Pick Six handicapper than he is--and consequently little inside scuttlebutt trickles from the Lukas barn.

For instance, what bettors didn’t know about Open Mind, making only her second start, was that Lukas ranked the New Jersey-bred particularly high as a yearling, based solely on conformation. So the relatively low $150,000 that Lukas paid on behalf of Gene Klein was deceptive.

On a scale of 1 to 10, Lukas rated Open Mind as a 7-plus. Houston, a 2-year-old colt trained by Lukas, was rated an 8-plus by Lukas and cost $2.9 million. Lukas has never seen a 10 and says that he’s seldom seen a 9.

Open Mind was named after Lukas’ attitude going into horse auctions. “It’s important to have an open mind,” Lukas said. “If you don’t you’ll get burned.”

It’s amusing to see that some New York reporters belatedly embraced Alysheba as a genuine horse after he won the Iselin Handicap Aug. 27 at Monmouth without using Lasix, the anti-bleeder medication.

But the Iselin was the second big race that Alysheba ran at Monmouth without Lasix. A year ago, in the Haskell, Alysheba didn’t beat Bet Twice, but he ran a strong race that would have been good enough to beat most other horses. It was a winning-but-losing performance.

In analyzing Alysheba’s record, anti-medication turf writers fell into the trap of assuming that the colt’s two poor races in New York last year were the result of not running on Lasix.

But there were other factors. In the Belmont Stakes, Alysheba got a poor ride from Chris McCarron and also was broadsided at the top of the stretch. And in the Travers, Alysheba couldn’t handle the soupy track that Java Gold thrived on, and also had his prerace routine interrupted by New York racing officials reacting to a rumor that the horse had been drugged.

Regal Classic, who ran last in the transplanted Arlington Million at Woodbine, which is the 3-year-old Canadian-bred’s home track, will try to rebound Sunday in a new $1-million stake, the Molson Challenge, at the suburban Toronto track.

In preparing for the Challenge, Regal Classic has worked three-quarters of a mile in 1:10, which is believed to be the fastest training time ever recorded for that distance at Woodbine.

Although a disappointment in the Million, at least Regal Classic and two other colts made owner Ernie Samuel and trainer Jim Day the first horsemen ever to sweep Canada’s triple crown with different horses. Regal Intention won the Queen’s Plate, Regal Classic took the Prince of Wales and King’s Deputy the Breeders’ Stakes.

When a race lasts just 21.69 seconds--the time it took to run the $2.5-million All American Futurity at Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico on Monday--racing luck can be everything.

Merganser won the $1-million first prize when incidents just before and shortly after the start of the Futurity eliminated three other horses, including Sig Hanson, the undefeated 3-5 favorite.

Fabulous Figure, who went into the Futurity with a six-race winning streak, might have lost the race in the post parade by dumping her jockey.

Sig Hanson, who finished fifth, almost flipped in the starting gate and had to be dislodged by an assistant starter from the right rear of the gate before he broke slowly. Super De Kas was jarred by Merganser leaving the gate and Our Special Girl was last after the race.

Horse Racing Notes

Winning Colors, winner of the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbies, apparently is going to challenge undefeated Personal Ensign Saturday at Belmont in the 1-mile Maskette. Winning Colors was a tired third in the Belmont Stakes and hasn’t run since. Personal Ensign has won 10 straight. . . . Lafitt Pincay, who suffered several broken ribs and a punctured lung when a mount took him over the fence at Del Mar five weeks ago, is scheduled to resume riding next week and will be aboard Forty Niner in the Woodward Handicap at Belmont on Sept. 17.

Many a trainer has chosen between two running spots with a horse and then regretted it, but Darrell Vienna and Mike Harmatuck made the right decisions recently. Instead of running in the Del Mar Handicap, Harmatuck sent Skip Out Front to Bay Meadows and won the San Francisco Handicap. Vienna, debating about keeping Choritao at Del Mar or running her in the River Cities Budweiser Breeders’ Cup, chose to send the 4-year-old Irish-bred to Louisiana Downs and she turned in a two-length win.

Martha Kilroe, who died of cancer this week, was an anomaly, a near-member of the Santa Anita official family who not only got along with Hollywood Park’s Marje Everett, but was also a close personal friend. Kilroe’s husband, Jimmy, is the vice president for racing at Santa Anita and consequently was involved in the feuds between the tracks. But the Kilroes managed to juggle this ticklish situation and Everett had so much respect for Martha as a horsewoman that she sent her to Kentucky to look at racing prospects. . . . Joanne MacBeth, whose jockey husband, Don, died of cancer at the peak of his career 1 1/2 years ago, has married jockey Robert Thibeau Jr.

“Where I come from, people say hello to you,” Pat Day once said in comparing the Midwest with New York, which explains why one of the country’s top jockeys left Belmont Park and returned to Chicago this week. Day was not unsuccessful in New York, winning 18% of his races there this year. . . . Trainers Woody Stephens and Wayne Lukas have birthdays only a day apart, Stephens having turned 75 and Lukas reaching 53 last week, but they’re not the kind of guys who would go to dinner with one another. Stephens, who has been in racing almost all his life, begrudges Lukas the incredible success he’s had in the 1980s, and the outspoken, oft-burned Lukas wonders why Stephens can say almost anything and get away with it.