50% Cut Set in Federal Water Supplies in State : Action Required by Drought May Cause Some Farmers to Fail and Drive Up Food Prices

Central Valley farmers and some Northern California cities served by federal water projects are being told their deliveries will be cut by up to 50%, a move that could put some farmers out of business and lead to water rationing in urban areas, federal officials said Saturday.

The cutbacks by the federal Bureau of Reclamation, California’s largest single supplier of water, are likely to reduce the state’s crop production by an estimated $250 million and drive up food prices in local supermarkets.

Brought on by the state’s third dry year in a row, the reductions will take effect March 1. It will be the first time since the drought of 1976-77 that the federal water system will be unable to provide all the water its contractors are entitled to receive.

‘A Tough Year’

“Some farmers are going to go belly up,” said John B. Budd, a spokesman for the Bureau of Reclamation. “They just won’t be able to make it through the year. It’s going to be a tough year for everybody.”

The reduction in the amount of water available through the federal system compounds an already bleak situation. Officials of the state water project, which provides the state with nearly half as much water as the federal system, already has announced that farmers can expect a 40% cutback in water supplies this year.

“California’s water picture remains dominated by drought,” the state Department of Water Resources said in its February water report. “The next two months will determine whether there will be enough water, or whether California will have its first three-year critically dry spell of this century.”

Far Below Normal

Both the federal and state decisions to reduce water supplies could be altered if California is drenched by huge storms in the next two months. However, the state is so far behind in precipitation that it would take a storm of the magnitude seen only once every 100 years to bring California up to normal levels, Budd said.

Not only will the expected water shortage hurt farmers and inconvenience city dwellers, it is likely to further damage sensitive salmon fisheries, reduce the amount of hydroelectric power that can be produced and limit recreational activities on federal and state reservoirs.

The federal and state cutbacks will not directly affect Los Angeles and other Southern California communities. However, Los Angeles is experiencing problems of its own because of reduced snowpack in the eastern Sierra Nevada, the source of most of the city’s water.

“Los Angeles is going to be better off than San Francisco is,” Budd said. “They’re going to have some conservation measures they’ll have to go along with, but that’s a way of life.”

Among the urban areas that depend most heavily on water from the Bureau of Reclamation are the San Jose region and communities east of Sacramento such as Orangevale and Fair Oaks. With reduced supplies of federal water, these areas could face serious shortages.

San Jose Problems

In the Santa Clara Valley, for example, San Jose and its neighboring cities will receive half of their federal allotment. They already have heavily tapped the ground water supply during the last two dry years. Now increased pumping could cause the earth to subside, snapping underground pipes and undermining the foundations of buildings.

Neil Schild, assistant regional director of the Bureau of Reclamation, said the agency will try to help the San Jose region find alternate supplies, but water rationing ultimately may be necessary.

Among farmers, the federal cutbacks pose the greatest threat to growers in the western San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys, whose contracts with the bureau allow for reductions of 50%.

Farmers located nearer the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers face cutbacks of only 25% because their contracts take into account the original water rights attached to the property before the federal water system was constructed.

Schild estimated that the water cutbacks will affect 1 million acres of farmland. Some farmers may decide to let their land lie fallow or plant crops that require less water. Other growers may pump additional water from the ground, manage their supplies better or find more expensive sources of water, which in turn would drive up the cost of food.

“Some will divert to ground water,” Schild said. “Others simply are not going to make it.”

Notification Deadline

Farmers must be notified by Feb. 15 of any cutbacks in their federal allotments so they can decide what crops to plant and how many acres to farm, Schild said. If California does not receive substantial rainfall in the next seven weeks, any increases in the supply would be too late for most farmers to alter their plans.

The Bureau of Reclamation’s decision to reduce water supplies comes as California recovers from a storm that blanketed the state and dropped snow in Southern California.

Federal officials said it will take much more than a storm like that to avert a drought. The ground is so dry it soaks up the rainwater “like a sponge,” Budd said. Federal and state reservoirs, nearly drained during the last two years, remain far below normal levels. And this year’s snowpack, while great for skiing, has an unusually low water content, reducing the amount of expected runoff.

The last time there were three consecutive dry years in California was in 1614, judging from an analysis of the rings on ancient trees. It has never happened in the state’s recorded history.

Last year, the Bureau of Reclamation delivered about 6.5 million acre feet of water to its customers. This year, the bureau expects to deliver only about 4 million acre feet.

“There is a possibility that it will turn around,” Budd said. “I just think you have to plan for the worst.”