Les Predictions Dangereuses: ‘Rain Man’ : Looking ahead to Oscar night, it helps to know the system

The Oscar race this year is going to resemble a friendly game of bingo. The center spot--best picture--is free. Just write down “Rain Man” and move on.

The spot for best director is free, too. Write down Barry Levinson, for “Rain Man.” In fact, if the 4,600 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences follow their usual pattern, which is to settle on one movie and vote for it in every category for which it has been nominated, then “Rain Man” will be called eight times come Oscar night, March 29.

But for a movie that is almost conceded the top award, “Rain Man” may prove to be the least dominant winner since “Chariots of Fire” walked away with four statuettes from the ceremonies of 1982--at least that’s the consensus among film exhibitors, studio executives and critics reached shortly after the nominations were announced on Wednesday.

“I think ‘Rain Man’ is going to win for best picture and (best director), but the best actor voting is going to be much closer than people think between those former roommates,” said Chicago film critic Gene Siskel, referring to Dustin Hoffman, the star of “Rain Man,” and Gene Hackman, who was nominated for “Mississippi Burning.” (Hoffman and Hackman roomed together in their early acting years in New York.)

Siskel, like most others contacted for this story, believes that Hackman will suffer from the controversy that has surrounded “Mississippi Burning.” The film, released to mostly rave reviews in December, was criticized by some black leaders for its misinterpretations of events surrounding the investigation of the Klan-ordered murders of three civil rights workers in 1964 Mississippi and the subsequent furor, many believe, has dropped the film from a front-runner to an also-ran in the voters’ minds.

Despite this furor, there was little evidence of a backlash in the nominations. “Mississippi Burning” received six nods, including best picture and best director, and its only significant exclusion was from the slate of nominees for best original screenplay. But most people feel that the film will be punished for more than its script.

“There is no question that (the controversy) has lost it votes in all categories,” said one studio marketing executive. “Gene (Hackman) is very popular with academy members and he may still win it. But it’s not the lock it looked like it was going to be.”

Charles Glenn, executive vice president of marketing for Orion Pictures, the firm that is distributing “Mississippi Burning,” said he was surprised “at the ferocity of some of the negative criticism” of the movie and acknowledged that it may have affected its chances for Oscars. But he said he took the six nominations Wednesday as a sign that the voters are willing to consider the movie despite the fuss.

“I’m happy that we’re up there and pleased that (Academy members) voted their mind,” Glenn said. “I hope that when they go back and look at it again that they will regard it as a motion picture that is a fiction film story told to an audience and told incredibly well.”

On Wednesday, Calendar distributed a ballot to 125 theater owners at the ShoWest convention in Las Vegas. They were asked not to vote for their favorites, but for those they thought would win. MGM/UA’s “Rain Man” received 113 first place votes to runner-up “Mississippi Burning’s” 14. Levinson outscored Parker 88 to 10. And Dustin Hoffman was first on 119 ballots while Hackman came in second with just eight votes.

The best picture category is effectively limited to just “Rain Man,” “Mississippi Burning” and “Working Girl,” since the directors of the other two nominated films--”Accidental Tourist” and “Dangerous Liaisons”--were overlooked for nominations by the directors branch. No film in that situation has ever won the best picture Oscar.

In most years, voters logically pair best pictures to their directors, so “Rain Man’s” Levinson is the big favorite among the five nominated directors. If voters are in a mood for punishing “Mississippi Burning,” it’s hard to imagine them exonerating director Alan Parker, who acknowledged his hands-on supervision of the script in the film’s production notes.

Most industry people interviewed by Calendar agreed with the exhibitors’ vote, that previous Oscar winner Hoffman (for “Kramer vs. Kramer”) is the favorite with Hackman second. Tom Hanks, who was nominated for “Big,” has already won the thanks of fellow comedy actors by overcoming the bias of the actors branch toward comedy performances. As popular as the film and his performance were, however, Hanks seems a big long shot against Hoffman. And Max von Sydow, a surprise nominee for the Swedish film “Pelle the Conquerer,” can save his air fare and skip the March 27 awards show.

The remaining categories are far more difficult to call. Depending on who was talking Wednesday, the best actress winner will be:

* Jody Foster (“The Accused”). There’s a lot of sentiment for an actress who was believed to have peaked as a teen-ager in “Taxi Driver,” and returns with a convincing performance in a difficult role.

* Glenn Close (“Dangerous Liaisons”). She has some residual good will from last year when a lot of voters thought she should have won for “Fatal Attraction.”

* Melanie Griffith (“Working Girl”). She came out of nowhere in December to become the year’s discovery and hasn’t had time to wear her out her welcome.

No one Calendar interviewed thought that previous best actress Oscar winner (for “Sophie’s Choice”) Meryl Streep would win, even though most consider her performance in “A Cry in the Dark” to be one of her best.

“This is not a Streep town,” said one public relations expert who has worked on many Oscar campaigns. “I wouldn’t call it a backlash, but there is the feeling that she’s not considered part of this process anymore.”

Sigourney Weaver, the fifth nominee, did Herculian physical and emotional work in “Gorillas in the Mist,” but may be doomed to lose in this category because she was also nominated as best supporting actress for “Working Girl.” The dual nomination gives voters a chance to “pay her off” in one category for work in both. Four times previously, an actress has been nominated in both categories, each time to lose in the lead category and win in the supporting.

Weaver’s strongest competition in the supporting actress category would seem to be Frances McDormand, from “Mississippi Burning,” and Geena Davis, from “Accidental Tourist.” Davis is one of three nominees who seemed to have been misplaced by voters.

“She was the female lead in that movie, there’s no question about that,” said Siskel. “Incredibly, Academy voters bought Warner Bros.’ campaign pushing her for supporting actress.”

Siskel was more disturbed over the nomination of River Phoenix in the supporting actor category for “Running on Empty,” a film that he said clearly focused on Phoenix’s character. Kevin Kline, one of the lead actors in the ensemble film “A Fish Called Wanda,” was also misplaced, Siskel said, adding both should have competed in the best actor category.

Kline led in the poll of exhibitors in Las Vegas, but nearly everyone else in Hollywood reached Wednesday said Martin Landau, who played an accountant with a checkered past in Francis Coppola’s “Tucker: The Man and His Dream,” is going to win the Oscar for best supporting actor.

The screenplay categories may settle a lot of ties in office pools. The best original screenplay race figures to be between Ronald Bass and Barry Morrow’s “Rain Man” and Ron Shelton’s very popular script for “Bull Durham.”

Christopher Hampton’s script, adapting his own play, “Les Liaisons Dangereuses,” into “Dangerous Liaisons” may have the edge in adapted screenplays, but right now, it looks like a blind draw among the five.

“Who Framed Roger Rabbit” was shut out of the prestige categories, but consider it the front runner in the technical categories.

In picking the best song, remember the winner is always the one that’s easiest to hum. This year, that means the Oscar will probably go to Carly Simon’s “Let the River Run” from “Working Girl.”

There are six weeks until the Oscars are handed out, but here, based on early word in Hollywood, is one reporter’s entry for the office pool (they are listed in order of their presumed chances for winning):

Best Picture: 1. “Rain Man”; 2. “Mississippi Burning”; 3. “Working Girl”; 4. “Dangerous Liaisons”; 5. Accidental Tourist.

Best Director: 1. Barry Levinson (“Rain Man”); 2. Alan Parker “Mississippi Burning”); 3. Mike Nichols, (“Working Girl”); 4. Charles Crichton (“A Fish Called Wanda”); 5. Martin Scorsese (“The Last Temptation of Christ”).

Best actor: Dustin Hoffman (“Rain Man”); Gene Hackman (“Mississippi Burning”); 3. Tom Hanks (“Big”); 4. Edward James Olmos (“Stand and Deliver”); 5. Max von Sydow (“Pelle the Conquerer”).

Best actress: 1. Jodie Foster (“The Accused”); 2. Glenn Close (“Dangerous Liaisons”); 3. Melanie Griffith (“Working Girl”); 4. Sigourney Weaver (“Gorillas in the Mist”); 5. Meryl Streep (“A Cry in the Dark”).

Best supporting actor: 1. Martin Landau (“Tucker”); 2. Kevin Kline (“A Fish Called Wanda”); 3. River Phoenix (“Running on Empty”); Alec Guinness (“Little Dorrit”); 5. Dean Stockwell (“Married to the Mob”).

Best supporting actress: 1. Sigourney Weaver (“Working Girl”); 2. Frances McDormand (“Mississippi Burning”); 3. Geena Davis (“Accidental Tourist”); 5. Joan Cusack “(Working Girl”).

Best adapted screenplay: 1. Christopher Hampton (“Dangerous Liaisons”); 2. Frank Galati and Lawrence Kasdan (“The Accidental Tourist”); 3. Anna Hamilton Phelan (“Gorillas in the Mist”); 4. Christine Edzard (“Little Dorrit”); 5. Jean-Claude Carriere and Philip Kaufman (“The Unbearable Lightness of Being.”)

Best original screenplay: 1. Ronald Bass and Barry Morrow (“Rain Man”); 2. Ron Shelton (“Bull Durham”); 3. Gary Ross and Anne Spielberg (“Big”); 4. John Cleese (“A Fish Called Wanda”); 5. Naomi Foner (“Running on Empty”).

Best foreign film: 1. “Salaam Bombay,” India; 2. “Pele the Conqueror,” Denmark; 3. “The Music Teacher,” Belgium; 4. “Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown,” Spain; 5. “Hanussen,” Hungary;

Best original song: 1. Carly Simon, “Let the River Run,” (“Working Girl”); 2. Music by Lamont Dozier and lyric by Phil Collins, “Two Hearts,” (“Buster”); 3. Bob Telson, “Calling You” (“Bagdad Cafe”).